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Gruzieva, O., Georgelis, A., Andersson, N., Johansson, C., Bellander, T. & Merritt, A.-S. (2024). Comparison of personal exposure to black carbon levels with fixed-site monitoring data and with dispersion modelling and the influence of activity patterns and environment. Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Comparison of personal exposure to black carbon levels with fixed-site monitoring data and with dispersion modelling and the influence of activity patterns and environment
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2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology, ISSN 1559-0631, E-ISSN 1559-064XArtikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

Background: Short-term studies of health effects from ambient air pollution usually rely on fixed site monitoring data or spatio-temporal models for exposure characterization, but the relation to personal exposure is often not known.

Objective: We aimed to explore this relation for black carbon (BC) in central Stockholm.

Methods: Families (n = 46) with an infant, one parent working and one parent on parental leave, carried battery-operated BC instruments for 7 days. Routine BC monitoring data were obtained from rural background (RB) and urban background (UB) sites. Outdoor levels of BC at home and work were estimated in 24 h periods by dispersion modelling based on hourly real-time meteorological data, and statistical meteorological data representing annual mean conditions. Global radiation, air pressure, precipitation, temperature, and wind speed data were obtained from the UB station. All families lived in the city centre, within 4 km of the UB station.

Results: The average level of 24 h personal BC was 425 (s.d. 181) ng/m3 for parents on leave, and 394 (s.d. 143) ng/m3 for working parents. The corresponding fixed-site monitoring observations were 148 (s.d. 139) at RB and 317 (s.d. 149) ng/m3 at UB. Modelled BC levels at home and at work were 493 (s.d. 228) and 331 (s.d. 173) ng/m3, respectively. UB, RB and air pressure explained only 21% of personal 24 h BC variability for parents on leave and 25% for working parents. Modelled home BC and observed air pressure explained 23% of personal BC, and adding modelled BC at work increased the explanation to 34% for the working parents.

Impact: Short-term studies of health effects from ambient air pollution usually rely on fixed site monitoring data or spatio-temporal models for exposure characterization, but the relation to actual personal exposure is often not known. In this study we showed that both routine monitoring and modelled data explained less than 35% of variability in personal black carbon exposure. Hence, short-term health effects studies based on fixed site monitoring or spatio-temporal modelling are likely to be underpowered and subject to bias.

Nyckelord
Black carbon, Personal exposure, Fixed-site monitoring, Dispersion modelling, Time-activity pattern
Nationell ämneskategori
Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227310 (URN)10.1038/s41370-024-00653-2 (DOI)001174518700001 ()38388654 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85185690451 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2024-03-19 Skapad: 2024-03-19 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-03-19
Zhang, Z., Johansson, C., Engardt, M., Stafoggia, M. & Ma, X. (2024). Improving 3-day deterministic air pollution forecasts using machine learning algorithms. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 24(2), 807-851
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Improving 3-day deterministic air pollution forecasts using machine learning algorithms
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2024 (Engelska)Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 24, nr 2, s. 807-851Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

As air pollution is regarded as the single largest environmental health risk in Europe it is important that communication to the public is up to date and accurate and provides means to avoid exposure to high air pollution levels. Long- and short-term exposure to outdoor air pollution is associated with increased risks of mortality and morbidity. Up-to-date information on present and coming days' air quality helps people avoid exposure during episodes with high levels of air pollution. Air quality forecasts can be based on deterministic dispersion modelling, but to be accurate this requires detailed information on future emissions, meteorological conditions and process-oriented dispersion modelling. In this paper, we apply different machine learning (ML) algorithms – random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and long short-term memory (LSTM) – to improve 1, 2, and 3 d deterministic forecasts of PM10, NOx, and O3 at different sites in Greater Stockholm, Sweden.

It is shown that the deterministic forecasts can be significantly improved using the ML models but that the degree of improvement of the deterministic forecasts depends more on pollutant and site than on what ML algorithm is applied. Also, four feature importance methods, namely the mean decrease in impurity (MDI) method, permutation method, gradient-based method, and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method, are utilized to identify significant features that are common and robust across all models and methods for a pollutant. Deterministic forecasts of PM10 are improved by the ML models through the input of lagged measurements and Julian day partly reflecting seasonal variations not properly parameterized in the deterministic forecasts. A systematic discrepancy by the deterministic forecasts in the diurnal cycle of NOx is removed by the ML models considering lagged measurements and calendar data like hour and weekday, reflecting the influence of local traffic emissions. For O3 at the urban background site, the local photochemistry is not properly accounted for by the relatively coarse Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service ensemble model (CAMS) used here for forecasting O3 but is compensated for using the ML models by taking lagged measurements into account.

Through multiple repetitions of the training process, the resulting ML models achieved improvements for all sites and pollutants. For NOx at street canyon sites, mean squared error (MSE) decreased by up to 60  %, and seven metrics, such as R2 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), exhibited consistent results. The prediction of PM10 is improved significantly at the urban background site, whereas the ML models at street sites have difficulty capturing more information. The prediction accuracy of O3 also modestly increased, with differences between metrics.

Further work is needed to reduce deviations between model results and measurements for short periods with relatively high concentrations (peaks) at the street canyon sites. Such peaks can be due to a combination of non-typical emissions and unfavourable meteorological conditions, which are rather difficult to forecast. Furthermore, we show that general models trained using data from selected street sites can improve the deterministic forecasts of NOx at the station not involved in model training. For PM10 this was only possible using more complex LSTM models. An important aspect to consider when choosing ML algorithms is the computational requirements for training the models in the deployment of the system. Tree-based models (RF and XGB) require fewer computational resources and yield comparable performance in comparison to LSTM. Therefore, tree-based models are now implemented operationally in the forecasts of air pollution and health risks in Stockholm. Nevertheless, there is big potential to develop generic models using advanced ML to take into account not only local temporal variation but also spatial variation at different stations.

Nationell ämneskategori
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-227800 (URN)10.5194/acp-24-807-2024 (DOI)001168773800001 ()2-s2.0-85184031704 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2024-04-09 Skapad: 2024-04-09 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-04-09Bibliografiskt granskad
Sadiktsis, I., de Oliveira Galvão, M. F., Mustafa, M., Toublanc, M., Ünlü Endirlik, B., Silvergren, S., . . . Dreij, K. (2023). A yearlong monitoring campaign of polycyclic aromatic compounds and other air pollutants at three sites in Sweden: Source identification, in vitro toxicity and human health risk assessment. Chemosphere, 332, Article ID 138862.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A yearlong monitoring campaign of polycyclic aromatic compounds and other air pollutants at three sites in Sweden: Source identification, in vitro toxicity and human health risk assessment
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2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Chemosphere, ISSN 0045-6535, E-ISSN 1879-1298, Vol. 332, artikel-id 138862Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Air pollution is a complex mixture of gases and particulate matter (PM) with local and non-local emission sources, resulting in spatiotemporal variability in concentrations and composition, and thus associated health risks. To study this in the greater Stockholm area, a yearlong monitoring campaign with in situ measurements of PM10, PM1, black carbon, NOx, O3, and PM10-sampling was performed. The locations included an Urban and a Rural background site and a Highway site. Chemical analysis of PM10 was performed to quantify monthly levels of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs), which together with other air pollution data were used for source apportionment and health risk assessment. Organic extracts from PM10 were tested for oxidative potential in human bronchial epithelial cells. Strong seasonal patterns were found for most air pollutants including PACs, with higher levels during the winter months than summer e.g., highest levels of PM10 were detected in March at the Highway site (33.2 μg/m3) and lowest in May at the Rural site (3.6 μg/m3). In general, air pollutant levels at the sites were in the order Highway > Urban > Rural. Multivariate analysis identified several polar PACs, including 6H-Benzo[cd]pyren-6-one, as possible discriminatory markers for these sites. The main sources of particulate pollution for all sites were vehicle exhaust and biomass burning emissions, although diesel exhaust was an important source at the Highway site. In vitro results agreed with air pollutant levels, with higher oxidative potential from the winter samples. Estimated lung cancer cases were in the order PM10 > NO2 > PACs for all sites, and with less evident seasonal differences than in vitro results. In conclusion, our study presents novel seasonal data for many PACs together with air pollutants more traditionally included in air quality monitoring. Moreover, seasonal differences in air pollutant levels correlated with differences in toxicity in vitro.

Nyckelord
PM10, Black carbon, Nitrogen oxides, Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, Source apportionment, Positive matrix factorization
Nationell ämneskategori
Miljövetenskap Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning Biokemi och molekylärbiologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216932 (URN)10.1016/j.chemosphere.2023.138862 (DOI)001006900400001 ()37150457 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85158878663 (Scopus ID)
Forskningsfinansiär
Forskningsrådet Formas, 2018-00475Forskningsrådet Formas, 2019-00582Naturvårdsverket, NV219-19-015
Tillgänglig från: 2023-05-06 Skapad: 2023-05-06 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-09-25Bibliografiskt granskad
Vallabani, N. V., Gruzieva, O., Elihn, K., Juárez-Facio, A. T., Steimer, S., Kuhn, J., . . . Karlsson, H. L. (2023). Toxicity and health effects of ultrafine particles: Towards an understanding of the relative impacts of different transport modes. Environmental Research, 231, part 2, Article ID 116186.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Toxicity and health effects of ultrafine particles: Towards an understanding of the relative impacts of different transport modes
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2023 (Engelska)Ingår i: Environmental Research, ISSN 0013-9351, E-ISSN 1096-0953, Vol. 231, part 2, artikel-id 116186Artikel, forskningsöversikt (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Exposure to particulate matter (PM) has been associated with a wide range of adverse health effects, but it is still unclear how particles from various transport modes differ in terms of toxicity and associations with different human health outcomes. This literature review aims to summarize toxicological and epidemiological studies of the effect of ultrafine particles (UFPs), also called nanoparticles (NPs, <100 nm), from different transport modes with a focus on vehicle exhaust (particularly comparing diesel and biodiesel) and non-exhaust as well as particles from shipping (harbor), aviation (airport) and rail (mainly subway/underground). The review includes both particles collected in laboratory tests and the field (intense traffic environments or collected close to harbor, airport, and in subway). In addition, epidemiological studies on UFPs are reviewed with special attention to studies aimed at distinguishing the effects of different transport modes. Results from toxicological studies indicate that both fossil and biodiesel NPs show toxic effects. Several in vivo studies show that inhalation of NPs collected in traffic environments not only impacts the lung, but also triggers cardiovascular effects as well as negative impacts on the brain, although few studies compared NPs from different sources. Few studies were found on aviation (airport) NPs, but the available results suggest similar toxic effects as traffic-related particles. There is still little data related to the toxic effects linked to several sources (shipping, road and tire wear, subway NPs), but in vitro results highlighted the role of metals in the toxicity of subway and brake wear particles. Finally, the epidemiological studies emphasized the current limited knowledge of the health impacts of source-specific UFPs related to different transport modes. This review discusses the necessity of future research for a better understanding of the relative potencies of NPs from different transport modes and their use in health risk assessment.

Nyckelord
Air pollution, Nanoparticles, Ultrafine particles, Transportation, Health, Risk assessment
Nationell ämneskategori
Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-229955 (URN)10.1016/j.envres.2023.116186 (DOI)001012904700001 ()37224945 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85161021090 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2024-06-03 Skapad: 2024-06-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2024-06-03Bibliografiskt granskad
Lim, H., Silvergren, S., Spinicci, S., Rad, F. M., Nilsson, U., Westerholm, R. & Johansson, C. (2022). Contribution of wood burning to exposures of PAHs and oxy-PAHs in Eastern Sweden. Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, 22(17), 11359-11379
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Contribution of wood burning to exposures of PAHs and oxy-PAHs in Eastern Sweden
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2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 22, nr 17, s. 11359-11379Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

A growing trend in developed countries is the use of wood as fuel for domestic heating due to measures taken to reduce the usage of fossil fuels. However, this imposed another issue with the environment and human health. That is, the emission from wood burning contributed to the increased level of atmospheric particulates and the wood smoke caused various respiratory diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of wood burning on the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in air PM10 using known wood burning tracers, i.e. levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan from the measurement at the urban background and residential areas in Sweden. A yearly measurement from three residential areas in Sweden showed a clear seasonal variation of PAHs during the cold season mainly from increased domestic heating and meteorology. Together, an increased sugar level assured the wood burning during the same period. The sugar ratio (levoglucosan(mannosan+galactosan)) was a good marker for wood burning source such as the wood type used for domestic heating and garden waste burning. On the Walpurgis Night, the urban background measurement demonstrated a dramatic increase in levoglucosan, benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) and oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) concentrations from the increased wood burning. A significant correlation between levoglucosan and OPAHs was observed suggesting OPAHs to be an indicator of wood burning together with levoglucosan. The levoglucosan tracer method and modelling used in predicting the B[a]P concentration could not fully explain the measured levels in the cold season. The model showed that the local wood source contributed to 98 % of B[a]P emissions in the Stockholm area and 2 % from the local traffic. However, non-local sources were dominating in the urban background (60 %). A further risk assessment estimated that the airborne particulate PAHs caused 13.4 cancer cases per 0.1 million inhabitants in Stockholm County.

Nationell ämneskategori
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-209457 (URN)10.5194/acp-22-11359-2022 (DOI)000849846400001 ()
Tillgänglig från: 2022-09-19 Skapad: 2022-09-19 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-09-19Bibliografiskt granskad
Gerasopoulos, E., Bailey, J., Athanasopoulou, E., Speyer, O., Kocman, D., Raudner, A., . . . Paasonen, P. (2022). Earth observation: An integral part of a smart and sustainable city. Environmental Science and Policy, 132, 296-307
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Earth observation: An integral part of a smart and sustainable city
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2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: Environmental Science and Policy, ISSN 1462-9011, E-ISSN 1873-6416, Vol. 132, s. 296-307Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Over the course of the 21st century, a century in which the urbanization process of the previous one is ever on the rise, the novel smart city concept has rapidly evolved and now encompasses the broader aspect of sustainability. Concurrently, there has been a sea change in the domain of Earth observation (EO) where scientific and technological breakthroughs are accompanied by a paradigm shift in the provision of open and free data. While the urban and EO communities share the end goal of achieving sustainability, cities still lack an understanding of the value EO can bring in this direction, an next a consolidated framework for tapping the full potential of EO and integrating it in their operational modus operandi. The “SMart URBan Solutions for air quality, disasters and city growth” H2020 project (SMURBS/ERA-PLANET) sits at this scientific and policy crossroad, and, by creating bottom-up EO-driven solutions against an array of environmental urban pressures, and by expanding the network of engaged and exemplary smart cities that push the state-of-the-art in EO uptake, brings the international ongoing discussion of EO for sustainable cities closer to home and contributes in this discussion. This paper advocates for EO as an integral part of a smart and sustainable city and aspires to lead by example. To this end, it documents the project’s impacts, ranging from the grander policy fields to an evolving portfolio of smart urban solutions and everyday city operations, as well as the cornerstones for successful EO integration. Drawing a parallel with the utilization of EO in supporting several aspects of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, it aspires to be a point of reference for upcoming endeavors of city stakeholders and the EO community alike, to tread together, beyond traditional monitoring or urban planning, and to lay the foundations for urban sustainability.

Nyckelord
Earth observations, Smart city, Resilient cities, Urban sustainability, Environmental pressures
Nationell ämneskategori
Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap Annan samhällsvetenskap
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-206227 (URN)10.1016/j.envsci.2022.02.033 (DOI)000820083100007 ()2-s2.0-85126298100 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2022-06-14 Skapad: 2022-06-14 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-08-24Bibliografiskt granskad
Nilsson Sommar, J., Johansson, C., Lövenheim, B., Schantz, P., Markstedt, A., Strömgren, M., . . . Forsberg, B. (2022). Overall health impacts of a potential increase in cycle commuting in Stockholm, Sweden. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, 50(5), 552-564
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Overall health impacts of a potential increase in cycle commuting in Stockholm, Sweden
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2022 (Engelska)Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health, ISSN 1403-4948, E-ISSN 1651-1905, Vol. 50, nr 5, s. 552-564Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Aims: To estimate the overall health impact of transferring commuting trips from car to bicycle. Methods: In this study registry information on the location of home and work for residents in Stockholm County was used to obtain the shortest travel route on a network of bicycle paths and roads. Current modes of travel to work were based on travel survey data. The relation between duration of cycling and distance cycled was established as a basis for selecting the number of individuals that normally would drive a car to work, but have a distance to work that they could bicycle within 30 minutes. The change in traffic flows was estimated by a transport model (LuTrans) and effects on road traffic injuries and fatalities were estimated by using national hospital injury data. Effects on air pollution concentrations were modelled using dispersion models. Results: Within the scenario, 111,000 commuters would shift from car to bicycle. On average the increased physical activity reduced the one-year mortality risk by 12% among the additional bicyclists. Including the number of years lost due to morbidity, the total number of disability adjusted life-years gained was 696. The amount of disability adjusted life-years gained in the general population due to reduced air pollution exposure was 471. The number of disability adjusted life-years lost by traffic injuries was 176. Also including air pollution effects among bicyclists, the net benefit was 939 disability adjusted life-years per year. Conclusions: Large health benefits were estimated by transferring commuting by car to bicycle.

Nyckelord
Scenario, transport, bicycling, physical activity, air pollution, traffic injuries, health impact assessment, DALY
Nationell ämneskategori
Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-195108 (URN)10.1177/14034948211010024 (DOI)000651176800001 ()33977822 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85105938732 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2021-08-05 Skapad: 2021-08-05 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-10-17Bibliografiskt granskad
Kriit, H. K., Nilsson Sommar, J., Forsberg, B., Åström, S., Svensson, M. & Johansson, C. (2021). A health economic assessment of air pollution effects under climate neutral vehicle fleet scenarios in Stockholm, Sweden. Journal of Transport and Health, 22, Article ID 101084.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>A health economic assessment of air pollution effects under climate neutral vehicle fleet scenarios in Stockholm, Sweden
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2021 (Engelska)Ingår i: Journal of Transport and Health, ISSN 2214-1405, E-ISSN 2214-1405, Vol. 22, artikel-id 101084Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Introduction: Electric vehicles (EVs) are heavily promoted as beneficial for climate and health. In most studies, it is assumed that EVs contribution to urban air pollution is zero due to no tailpipe emissions, ignoring the contribution of non-exhaust particles (brake, tire and road wear), which are unregulated in EU. This study of Stockholm, Sweden, aims to 1) assess how a future vehicle fleet impacts concentrations of particles of size less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) and evaluate the expected health outcomes economically and 2) compare this with CO2 savings. Methods: Source specific dispersion models of exhaust and non-exhaust PM2.5 was used to estimate the population weighted concentrations. Thereafter exposure differences within a business as usual (BAU2035) and a fossil free fuel (FFF2035) scenario were used to assess expected health and economic impacts. The assessment considered both exhaust and non-exhaust emissions, considering the vehicle weight and the proportion of vehicles using studded winter tires. Health economic costs were retrieved from the literature and societal willingness to pay was used to value quality-adjusted life-years lost due to morbidity and mortality. Results: The mean population weighted exhaust PM2.5 concentration decreased 0.012 mu g/m(3) (39%) in FFF2035 as compared to BAU2035. Assuming 50% higher road and tire wear PM2.5 emission because of higher weight among EVs and 30% less brake wear emissions, the estimated decrease in wear particle exposures were 0.152 (22%) and 0.014 mu g/m(3) (1.9%) for 0 and 30% use on studded winter tires, respectively. The resulting health economic costs were estimated to (sic)217M and (sic)32M, respectively. An increase by 0.079 mu g/m(3) (11%) was however estimated for 50% use of studded winter tires, corresponding to an mu 89M increase in health costs. Conclusion: Considering both exhaust and wear generated particles, it is not straight forward that an increase of EVs will decrease the negative health impacts.

Nyckelord
Non-exhaust, Wear particles, Road dust, PM2.5, PM10, CO2, Electric vehicles, Exhaust, Mortality, Morbidity, QALY, Costs
Nationell ämneskategori
Samhällsbyggnadsteknik Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198225 (URN)10.1016/j.jth.2021.101084 (DOI)000697062200001 ()2-s2.0-85108259686 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2021-11-05 Skapad: 2021-11-05 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-10-17Bibliografiskt granskad
Gruzieva, O., Georgelis, A., Andersson, N., Bellander, T., Johansson, C. & Merritt, A.-S. (2021). Comparison of measured residential black carbon levels outdoors and indoors with fixed-site monitoring data and with dispersion modelling. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(13), 16264-16271
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Comparison of measured residential black carbon levels outdoors and indoors with fixed-site monitoring data and with dispersion modelling
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2021 (Engelska)Ingår i: Environmental Science and Pollution Research, ISSN 0944-1344, E-ISSN 1614-7499, Vol. 28, nr 13, s. 16264-16271Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Epidemiologic studies on health effects of air pollution usually rely on time-series of ambient monitoring data or on spatially modelled levels. Little is known how well these estimate residential outdoor and indoor levels. We investigated the agreement of measured residential black carbon (BC) levels outdoors and indoors with fixed-site monitoring data and with levels calculated using a Gaussian dispersion model. One-week residential outdoor and indoor BC measurements were conducted for 15 families living in central Stockholm. Time-series from urban background and street-level monitors were compared to these measurements. The observed weekly concentrations were also standardized to reflect annual averages, using urban background levels, and compared spatially to long-term levels as estimated by dispersion modelling. Weekly average outdoor BC level was 472 ng/m3 (range 261-797 ng/m3). The corresponding fixed-site urban background and street levels were 313 and 1039 ng/m3, respectively. Urban background variation explained 50% of the temporal variation in residential outdoor levels averaged over 24 h. Modelled residential long-term outdoor levels were on average comparable with the standardized measured home outdoor levels, and explained 49% of the spatial variability. The median indoor/outdoor ratio across all addresses was 0.79, with no difference between day and night time. Common exposure estimation approaches in the epidemiology of health effects related to BC displayed high validity for residencies in central Stockholm. Urban background monitored levels explained half of the outdoor day-to-day variability at residential addresses. Long-term dispersion modelling explained half of the spatial differences in outdoor levels. Indoor BC concentrations tended to be somewhat lower than outdoor levels. 

Nyckelord
Black carbon, Routine monitoring, Dispersion modelling, Indoor, outdoor ratio
Nationell ämneskategori
Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-193791 (URN)10.1007/s11356-020-12134-8 (DOI)000630133600042 ()33341921 (PubMedID)
Tillgänglig från: 2021-06-08 Skapad: 2021-06-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-02-25Bibliografiskt granskad
Nilsson Sommar, J., Andersson, E. M., Andersson, N., Sallsten, G., Stockfelt, L., Ljungman, P. L. S., . . . Forsberg, B. (2021). Long-term exposure to particulate air pollution and black carbon in relation to natural and cause-specific mortality: a multicohort study in Sweden. BMJ Open, 11(9), Article ID e046040.
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Long-term exposure to particulate air pollution and black carbon in relation to natural and cause-specific mortality: a multicohort study in Sweden
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2021 (Engelska)Ingår i: BMJ Open, E-ISSN 2044-6055, Vol. 11, nr 9, artikel-id e046040Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Objectives To estimate concentration–response relationships for particulate matter (PM) and black carbon (BC) in relation to mortality in cohorts from three Swedish cities with comparatively low pollutant levels.

Setting Cohorts from Gothenburg, Stockholm and Umeå, Sweden.

Design High-resolution dispersion models were used to estimate annual mean concentrations of PM with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 µm (PM10) and ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5), and BC, at individual addresses during each year of follow-up, 1990–2011. Moving averages were calculated for the time windows 1–5 years (lag1–5) and 6–10 years (lag6–10) preceding the outcome. Cause-specific mortality data were obtained from the national cause of death registry. Cohort-specific HRs were estimated using Cox regression models and then meta-analysed including a random effect of cohort.

Participants During the study period, 7 340 cases of natural mortality, 2 755 cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 817 cases of respiratory and lung cancer mortality were observed among in total 68 679 individuals and 689 813 person-years of follow-up.

Results Both PM10 (range: 6.3–41.9 µg/m3) and BC (range: 0.2–6.8 µg/m3) were associated with natural mortality showing 17% (95% CI 6% to 31%) and 9% (95% CI 0% to 18%) increased risks per 10 µg/m3 and 1 µg/m3 of lag1-5 exposure, respectively. For PM2.5 (range: 4.0–22.4 µg/m3), the estimated increase was 13% per 5 µg/m3, but less precise (95% CI −9% to 40%). Estimates for CVD mortality appeared higher for both PM10 and PM2.5. No association was observed with respiratory mortality.

Conclusion The results support an effect of long-term air pollution on natural mortality and mortality in CVD with high relative risks also at low exposure levels. These findings are relevant for future decisions concerning air quality policies.

Nyckelord
epidemiology, public health, cardiac epidemiology
Nationell ämneskategori
Arbetsmedicin och miljömedicin
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198219 (URN)10.1136/bmjopen-2020-046040 (DOI)000697851300021 ()34497075 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85114776936 (Scopus ID)
Tillgänglig från: 2021-11-08 Skapad: 2021-11-08 Senast uppdaterad: 2023-08-28Bibliografiskt granskad
Organisationer
Identifikatorer
ORCID-id: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-8459-9852

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