We present GAUSSN, a Bayesian semiparametric Gaussian Process (GP) model for time-delay estimation with resolved systems of gravitationally lensed supernovae (glSNe). GAUSSN models the underlying light curve non-parametrically using a GP. Without assuming a template light curve for each SN type, GAUSSN fits for the time delays of all images using data in any number of wavelength filters simultaneously. We also introduce a novel time-varying magnification model to capture the effects of microlensing alongside time-delay estimation. In this analysis, we model the time-varying relative magnification as a sigmoid function, as well as a constant for comparison to existing time-delay estimation approaches. We demonstrate that GAUSSN provides robust time-delay estimates for simulations of glSNe from the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and the Vera C. Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time (Rubin-LSST). We find that up to 43.6 per cent of time-delay estimates from Roman and 52.9 per cent from Rubin-LSST have fractional errors of less than 5  per cent. We then apply GAUSSN to SN Refsdal and find the time delay for the fifth image is consistent with the original analysis, regardless of microlensing treatment. Therefore, GAUSSN maintains the level of precision and accuracy achieved by existing time-delay extraction methods with fewer assumptions about the underlying shape of the light curve than template-based approaches, while incorporating microlensing into the statistical error budget. GAUSSN is scalable for time-delay cosmography analyses given current projections of glSNe discovery rates from Rubin-LSST and Roman.

Supernova (SN) SN H0pe is a gravitationally lensed, triply imaged, Type Ia SN (SN Ia) discovered in James Webb Space Telescope imaging of the PLCK G165.7+67.0 cluster of galaxies. Well-observed multiply imaged SNe provide a rare opportunity to constrain the Hubble constant (H-0), by measuring the relative time delay between the images and modeling the foreground mass distribution. SN H0pe is located at z = 1.783 and is the first SN Ia with sufficient light-curve sampling and long enough time delays for an H-0 inference. Here we present photometric time-delay measurements and SN properties of SN H0pe. Using JWST/NIRCam photometry, we measure time delays of Delta t(ab) = -116.6(-9.3)(+10.8) observer-frame days and Delta t(cb) = -48.6(-4.0)(+3.6) observer-frame days relative to the last image to arrive (image 2b; all uncertainties are 1 sigma), which corresponds to a similar to 5.6% uncertainty contribution for H-0 assuming 70 km s(-1) Mpc(-1). We also constrain the absolute magnification of each image to mu(a) = 4.3(-1.8)(+1.6), mu(b) = 7.6(-2.6)(+3.6), mu(c) = 6.4(-1.5)(+1.6) by comparing the observed peak near-IR magnitude of SN H0pe to the nonlensed population of SNe Ia.

A bright (m_F150W,AB = 24 mag), z = 1.95 supernova (SN) candidate was discovered in JWST/NIRCam imaging acquired on 2023 November 17. The SN is quintuply imaged as a result of strong gravitational lensing by a foreground galaxy cluster, detected in three locations, and remarkably is the second lensed SN found in the same host galaxy. The previous lensed SN was called "Requiem," and therefore the new SN is named "Encore." This makes the MACS J0138.0−2155 cluster the first known system to produce more than one multiply imaged SN. Moreover, both SN Requiem and SN Encore are Type Ia SNe (SNe Ia), making this the most distant case of a galaxy hosting two SNe Ia. Using parametric host fitting, we determine the probability of detecting two SNe Ia in this host galaxy over a ∼10 yr window to be ≈3%. These observations have the potential to yield a Hubble constant (H₀) measurement with ∼10% precision, only the third lensed SN capable of such a result, using the three visible images of the SN. Both SN Requiem and SN Encore have a fourth image that is expected to appear within a few years of ∼2030, providing an unprecedented baseline for time-delay cosmography.

Supernovae (SNe) that have been multiply imaged by gravitational lensing are rare and powerful probes for cosmology. Each detection is an opportunity to develop the critical tools and methodologies needed as the sample of lensed SNe increases by orders of magnitude with the upcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory and Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. The latest such discovery is of the quadruply imaged Type Ia SN 2022qmx (aka, SN Zwicky) at z = 0.3544. SN Zwicky was discovered by the Zwicky Transient Facility in spatially unresolved data. Here we present follow-up Hubble Space Telescope observations of SN Zwicky, the first from the multicycle LensWatch (www.lenswatch.org) program. We measure photometry for each of the four images of SN Zwicky, which are resolved in three WFC3/UVIS filters (F475W, F625W, and F814W) but unresolved with WFC3/IR F160W, and present an analysis of the lensing system using a variety of independent lens modeling methods. We find consistency between lens-model-predicted time delays (less than or similar to 1 day), and delays estimated with the single epoch of Hubble Space Telescope colors (less than or similar to 3.5 days), including the uncertainty from chromatic microlensing (similar to 1-1.5 days). Our lens models converge to an Einstein radius of theta(E) = 0.168 (+0.009)(-0.005) the smallest yet seen in a lensed SN system. The standard candle nature of SN Zwicky provides magnification estimates independent of the lens modeling that are brighter than predicted by similar to 1.7 (-0.6) (+0.8) mag and similar to 0.9 (-0.6) (+0.8) mag for two of the four images, suggesting significant microlensing and/or additional substructure beyond the flexibility of our image-position mass models.

Detecting gravitationally lensed supernovae is among the biggest challenges in astronomy. It involves a combination of two very rare phenomena: catching the transient signal of a stellar explosion in a distant galaxy and observing it through a nearly perfectly aligned foreground galaxy that deflects light towards the observer. Here we describe how high-cadence optical observations with the Zwicky Transient Facility, with its unparalleled large field of view, led to the detection of a multiply imaged type Ia supernova, SN Zwicky, also known as SN 2022qmx. Magnified nearly 25-fold, the system was found thanks to the standard candle nature of type Ia supernovae. High-spatial-resolution imaging with the Keck telescope resolved four images of the supernova with very small angular separation, corresponding to an Einstein radius of only θ_E = 0.167″ and almost identical arrival times. The small θ_E and faintness of the lensing galaxy are very unusual, highlighting the importance of supernovae to fully characterize the properties of galaxy-scale gravitational lenses, including the impact of galaxy substructures.

We present a spatio-temporal AI framework that concurrently exploits both the spatial and time-variable features of gravitationally lensed supernovae in optical images to ultimately aid in future discoveries of such exotic transients in wide-field surveys. Our spatio-temporal engine is designed using recurrent convolutional layers, while drawing from recent advances in variational inference to quantify approximate Bayesian uncertainties via a confidence score. Using simulated Young Supernova Experiment (YSE) images of lensed and non-lensed supernovae as a showcase, we find that the use of time-series images adds relevant information from time variability of spatial light distribution of partially blended images of lensed supernova, yielding a substantial gain of around 20 per cent in classification accuracy over single-epoch observations. Preliminary application of our network to mock observations from the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) results in detections with accuracy reaching around 99 per cent. Our innovative deep learning machinery is versatile and can be employed to search for any class of sources that exhibit variability both in flux and spatial distribution of light.

The standard Λ Cold Dark Matter (ΛCDM) cosmological model provides a good description of a wide range of astrophysical and cosmological data. However, there are a few big open questions that make the standard model look like an approximation to a more realistic scenario yet to be found. In this paper, we list a few important goals that need to be addressed in the next decade, taking into account the current discordances between the different cosmological probes, such as the disagreement in the value of the Hubble constant H₀, the σ₈–S₈ tension, and other less statistically significant anomalies. While these discordances can still be in part the result of systematic errors, their persistence after several years of accurate analysis strongly hints at cracks in the standard cosmological scenario and the necessity for new physics or generalisations beyond the standard model. In this paper, we focus on the 5.0σ tension between the Planck CMB estimate of the Hubble constant H₀ and the SH0ES collaboration measurements. After showing the H0 evaluations made from different teams using different methods and geometric calibrations, we list a few interesting new physics models that could alleviate this tension and discuss how the next decade's experiments will be crucial. Moreover, we focus on the tension of the Planck CMB data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density Ω_m, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure (σ₈,fσ₈). We list a few interesting models proposed for alleviating this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit a full array of data with a single model and not just one parameter at a time. Additionally, we present a wide range of other less discussed anomalies at a statistical significance level lower than the H₀–S₈ tensions which may also constitute hints towards new physics, and we discuss possible generic theoretical approaches that can collectively explain the non-standard nature of these signals. Finally, we give an overview of upgraded experiments and next-generation space missions and facilities on Earth that will be of crucial importance to address all these open questions.