The influence of subpolar North Atlantic hydrographic conditions on the North Sea is well recognized, yet the precise pathways taken by Atlantic Water to reach its gateway remain uncertain. Using satellite-derived velocity fields, we map the open-ocean routes leading to the North Sea. Our Lagrangian analysis shows that the Rockall Trough serves as the primary route in a time-mean sense, with its dominance becoming particularly evident under anomalously cold subpolar conditions. During anomalously warm periods, however, Atlantic Water is preferentially routed through the Iceland Basin. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Lagrangian trajectories reveals a dipole mode of variability between the Rockall Trough and the Iceland Basin, with its first principal component explaining 74% (R = 0.86) of the variance in multi-year ocean heat content variability. These trajectories further demonstrate that this variability is closely linked to the north-south shifts of the North Atlantic Current. Such spatial shifts are likely driven by variations in northward ocean heat transport at the intergyre boundary, with the strength of the subpolar overturning circulation in preceding years potentially playing a critical role. This connection suggests that the conditions in the North Sea as well as the pathways Atlantic Water is advected along to reach it could be predictable several years in advance.

Deep-water formation in the eastern Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean (eSPNA) and Nordic Seas is crucial for maintaining the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of consequence for global climate. However, it is still uncertain which processes determine the deep-water formation and how much Atlantic and Arctic waters respectively contribute to the lower limb. To address this, here we used Lagrangian trajectories to diagnose a global eddy-resolving ocean model that agrees well with recent observations highlighting the eSPNA as a primary source of the AMOC lower limb. Comprised of 72% Atlantic waters and 28% Arctic waters, the density and depth of the AMOC lower limb is critically dependent on Atlantic-Arctic mixing, primarily in the vicinity of Denmark Strait. In contrast, Atlantic waters gaining density through air-sea interaction along the eastern periphery of Nordic Seas and not entering the Arctic Ocean make a negligible contribution to the lower limb.

The East Asian summer monsoon rainfall provides water security and socio-economic benefit for over 20% of the global population. However, the sources of this rainfall and how it is carried to the East Asian landmass are still uncertain. To address this, atmospheric water sources and pathways associated with the East Asian summer rainfall are identified and quantified in this study using atmospheric water trajectories, calculated with a novel Lagrangian framework. Evaporated water from the East Asian landmass is found to be the major contributor to East Asian rainfall, amounting to local recycling. The results further indicated that the south Indian Ocean is a major non-local source for rainfall over southern East Asia during June to August. The role of the south Indian Ocean as a source of atmospheric water is one of the major findings of the study and would help in better understanding and predicting the East Asian summer rainfall. Evaporated waters from the Pacific Ocean (particularly the far-west Pacific Ocean) dominate the non-local contribution to precipitation over northern East Asia during June to September and over southern East Asian rainfall during September. The spatial structure of the East Asian rainfall is reported to be determined by the atmospheric waters that are evaporated and transported from the non-local sources. The role of the north Indian Ocean and the South Asian landmass as a source of water for East Asian precipitation is minimal and restricted to southern East Asia. The cross-equatorial Somali jet and equatorial trade winds associated with the western North Pacific subtropical high are important pathways for East Asian precipitation sourced over the south Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean respectively. In contrast, minor roles are attributed to the Bay of Bengal as a source, and midlatitude westerlies as a transport pathway, for East Asian precipitation. Randomly chosen atmospheric water trajectories were obtained from the backward tracing of the East Asian summer rainfall. These trajectories are a small subset of a total of 5 million trajectories. The green dots are the starting (net precipitation) positions and the blue dots indicate the ending locations (net evaporation) of the trajectories. Basins were defined as the south Indian Ocean (SIO), north Indian Ocean (NIO), South Asia (SA), East Asia (EA), Pacific Ocean (PAC), Atlantic Ocean (ATL). Atmospheric water sources and pathways associated with the East Asian summer rainfall are identified and quantified in this study using a novel Lagrangian framework. The results show the following: (1) Evaporated water from the East Asian landmass is found to be the major contributor to East Asian rainfall, amounting to local recycling. (2) The south Indian Ocean is a major non-local source for rainfall over southern East Asia during June-August. Evaporated waters from the Pacific Ocean dominate the non-local contribution to precipitation over northern East Asia during June-September. (3) The spatial structure of the East Asian rainfall is reported to be determined by the atmospheric waters that are evaporated and transported from the non-local sources. Minor roles are attributed to the Bay of Bengal as a source, and midlatitude westerlies as a transport pathway, for East Asian precipitation.image

Marine extremes are recognized to cause severe ecosystem and socioeconomic impacts. However, in polar regions, such as the Barents Sea, the driving mechanisms of these extremes remain poorly understood and require careful consideration of the observed long-term ocean warming. Here we show that on short time scales of a few days, marine heatwaves and marine cold spells are dynamically driven by a dipole atmospheric circulation pattern between the Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea. Importantly, the dipole’s eastern component determines anomalies in shortwave radiation and latent heat fluxes. On interannual time scales, both changes in ocean heat supply and persistent atmospheric patterns can support severe marine extremes. We apply conventional marine heatwave detection methodology to OISSTv2 data, for the period of 1982–2021, and combine the analysis with ERA5 data to identify drivers. The ocean-atmosphere interplay across scales provides valuable information that can be integrated into fisheries and ecosystem management frameworks.

The global atmospheric water transport from the net evaporation to the net precipitation regions has been traced using Lagrangian trajectories. A matrix has been constructed by selecting various group of trajectories based on their surface starting (net evaporation) and ending (net precipitation) positions to show the connectivity of the 3-D atmospheric water transport within and between the three major ocean basins and the global landmass. The analysis reveals that a major portion of the net evaporated water precipitates back into the same region, namely 67 % for the Indian Ocean, 64 % for the Atlantic Ocean, 85 % for the Pacific Ocean and 72 % for the global landmass. It has also been calculated that 58 % of the net terrestrial precipitation was sourced from land evaporation. The net evaporation from the subtropical regions of the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific oceans is found to be the primary source of atmospheric water for precipitation over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the corresponding basins. The net evaporated waters from the subtropical and western Indian Ocean were traced as the source for precipitation over the South Asian and eastern African landmass, while Atlantic Ocean waters are responsible for rainfall over North Asia and western Africa. Atlantic storm tracks were identified as the carrier of atmospheric water that precipitates over Europe, while the Pacific storm tracks were responsible for North American, eastern Asian and Australian precipitation. The bulk of South and Central American precipitation is found to have its source in the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The land-to-land atmospheric water transport is pronounced over the Amazon basin, western coast of South America, Congo basin, northeastern Asia, Canada and Greenland. The ocean-to-land and land-to-ocean water transport through the atmosphere was computed to be 2x10(9) and 1x10(9) kg s(-1), respectively. The difference between them (net ocean-to-land transport), i.e. 1x10(9) kg s(-1), is transported to land. This net transport is approximately the same as found in previous estimates which were calculated from the global surface water budget.

The meridional transport of mass, heat, and salt in the North Atlantic Ocean is often described for separate regions and parts, but rarely are all components of the circulation followed at once. Lagrangian trajectories have here been used to divide the North Atlantic Ocean circulation into four different pathways. In the boundary between the Subpolar and Subtropical Gyres, we show that the northward flowing waters exchange heat and salt with the water originating from the subpolar regions. This subsurface water mass exchange takes place in the first 1,000 m and is a key piece of the puzzle of how the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation transports heat and salt. Between 30 & DEG; and 60 & DEG;N the northward flowing water loses 8.8 Gg/s salt to the Subpolar Gyre and an equivalent loss of only 1.7 Gg/s to the atmosphere due to the net fresh water influx.

This case study demonstrates how water transformation in a secluded bay can be investigated using a range of Lagrangian analysis methods that can be calculated with a mass-conserving Lagrangian trajectory model. The study focuses on analysing the water mass transformation and overturning circulation in the Gulf of Gabès. The gradual transformation of water masses flowing through the Gulf was analysed using model-simulated Lagrangian trajectories. It was found that the overturning circulation in the Gulf gradually deepens, although it is falsely exaggerated by up to 50 metres when computed as a simple longitude-depth Lagrangian stream function.

The Lagrangian method enabled the determination of the spatial dependence of transit time. The analysis revealed that most of the water in the Gulf has a transit time short enough to adjust to seasonal variability. However, in the innermost part of the Gulf, there exists an anticyclonic vortex that tends to trap water on longer timescales, preventing it from adjusting to seasonal variability. The trajectories were computed using velocity and mass transport fields from a high-resolution (1/96°) hydrodynamic ROMS model, which includes the relatively strong tides in this region of the Mediterranean.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) regulates the heat distribution and climate of Earth. Here we identify a new feature of the circulation within the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre that is associated with the northward flowing component of the AMOC. We find that 70% of the water that flows northwards as part of the AMOC circulates the Gyre at least once before it can continue northwards. These circuits are needed to achieve an increase of density and depth through a combination of air-sea interaction and interior mixing processes, before water can escape the latitudes of the Gyre and join the northern upper branch of the AMOC. This points towards an important role of the Gyre circulation in determining the strength and variability of the AMOC and the northward heat transport. Understanding this newly identified role of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre is needed to properly represent future changes of the AMOC.

The warming and salinification of the northwards flowing water masses from the Southern Ocean to the tropics are studied with Lagrangian trajectories simulated using fields from an Earth System Model. The trajectories are used to trace the geographical distribution of the water mass transformation and connect it with the pathways of the upper limb of the overturning circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Antarctic Circumpolar Current water gains heat just below the mixed layer, mainly when the layer is thin during Austral spring and summer. This gain is therefore suggested to be a consequence of heat flux from the atmosphere and mixing processes at the base of the mixed layer. In the Southern Hemispheric subtropical gyres on the other hand, a large warming and salinification of the northwards flowing water results from internal mixing with other warmer and more saline water masses. Close to the Antarctic shelf waters are getting fresher as a result of ice melting, whereas further north, in the Antarctic Circumpolar current, waters are getting more saline as a result of evaporation. Our results show that it is not only the heat and freshwater fluxes through the sea surface that control the heat and salt changes of the upper limb of the overturning circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. In fact, internal mixing accounts for 25% of the heat change, and 22% of the salinity change.

The water sources and their variability responsible for the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation were analyzed using Lagrangian atmospheric water-mass trajectories. The results indicated that evaporated waters from the central and south Indian Ocean are the major contributors to the South Asian summer monsoon rainfall, followed by the contribution from the local recycling (precipitated water that evapotranspirated from the South Asian landmass), the Arabian Sea, remote sources, and the Bay of Bengal. It was also found that although the direct contribution originating from the Bay of Bengal is small, it still provides a pathway for the atmospheric water that comes from other regions. This pathway is hence only crossing over the Bay of Bengal. The outcomes further revealed that the evaporated waters originating from the central and south Indian Ocean are responsible for the net precipitation over the coastal regions of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna Delta, northeast India, Myanmar, the foothills of the Himalayas, and central-east India. Evaporated waters from the Arabian Sea are mainly contributing to the rainfall over the western coast and west-central India. Summer monsoon precipitation due to the local recycling is primarily restricted to the Indo-Gangetic plain. No recycled precipitation was observed over the mountain chain along the west coast of India (Western Ghats). The month-to-month precipitation variation over South Asia was analyzed to be linked with the Somali low-level jet variability. The interannual variability of the South Asian summer monsoon precipitation was found to be mainly controlled by the atmospheric waters that were sourced and traveled from the central and south Indian Ocean.