The Southern Ocean (SO) is predicted to be a weak sink for atmospheric CH4, although the magnitude is uncertain due to a lack of observations of the marginal ice zone (MIZ). Using both eddy covariance and bulk formula flux measurements from the icebreaker R/V Xuelong2, we found that the eastern SO during an austral summer was a sink for CH4. The strongest downward CH4 fluxes occurred in areas of low sea ice concentration (10%–40%), where sea-ice melting resulted in low temperature and salinity, increasing CH4 solubility. The CH4 fluxes are weak in regions of high sea ice concentration (>50%) due to the blocking effect of sea ice. We estimate that the uptake of CH4 during one summer month in the study region offsets 1.2%–2.6% of annual global oceanic CH4 emissions. Suggesting that the Antarctic MIZ is more important in the global CH4 budget than previously thought.

The rapid warming of the Arctic-Boreal region has led to the concern that large amounts of methane may be released to the atmosphere from its carbon-rich soils, as well as subsea permafrost, amplifying climate change. In this review, we assess the various sources and sinks of methane from northern high latitudes, in particular those that may be enhanced by permafrost thaw. The largest terrestrial sources of the Arctic-Boreal region are its numerous wetlands, lakes, rivers and streams. However, fires, geological seeps and glacial margins can be locally strong emitters. In addition, dry upland soils are an important sink of atmospheric methane. We estimate that the net emission of all these landforms and point sources may be as much as 48.7 [13.3–86.9] Tg CH4 yr−1. The Arctic Ocean is also a net source of methane to the atmosphere, in particular its shallow shelves, but we assess that the marine environment emits a fraction of what is released from the terrestrial domain: 4.9 [0.4–19.4] Tg CH4 yr−1. While it appears unlikely that emissions from the ocean surface to the atmosphere are increasing, now or in the foreseeable future, evidence points towards a modest increase from terrestrial sources over the past decades, in particular wetlands and possibly lakes. The influence of permafrost thaw on future methane emissions may be strongest through associated changes in the hydrology of the landscape rather than the availability of previously frozen carbon. Although high latitude methane sources are not yet acting as a strong climate feedback, they might play an increasingly important role in the net greenhouse gas balance of the Arctic-Boreal region with continued climate change.

Continental margin sediments contain large reservoirs of methane stored as gas hydrate. Ocean warming will partly destabilize these reservoirs which may lead to the release of substantial, yet unconstrained, amounts of methane. Anaerobic oxidation of methane is the dominant biogeochemical process to reduce methane flux, estimated to consume 90% of the methane produced in marine sediments today. This process is however neglected in the current projections of seafloor methane release from gas hydrate dissociation. Here, we introduce a fully coupled oxidation module to a hydraulic-thermodynamic-geomechanical hydrate model. Our results show that for seafloor warming rates > 1 degrees C century(-1), the efficiency of anaerobic oxidation of methane in low permeability sediments is poor, reducing the seafloor methane emissions by <5%. The results imply an extremely low mitigating effect of anaerobic oxidation of methane on climate warming-induced seafloor methane emissions. Microbial anaerobic oxidation of methane may not substantially mitigate projected warming-induced emissions of methane from marine hydrate-bearing sediments, according to a coupled hydraulic-thermodynamic-geomechanical hydrate model.

Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO2, the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.

Global bottom-up and top-down estimates of natural, geologic methane (CH₄) emissions (average approximately 45 Tg yr^–1) have recently been questioned by near-zero (approximately 1.6 Tg yr^–1) estimates based on measurements of ¹⁴CH₄ trapped in ice cores, which imply that current fossil fuel industries’ CH₄ emissions are underestimated by 25%–40%. As we show here, such a global near-zero geologic CH₄ emission estimate is incompatible with multiple independent, bottom-up emission estimates from individual natural geologic seepage areas, each of which is of the order of 0.1–3 Tg yr^–1. Further research is urgently needed to resolve the conundrum before rejecting either method or associated emission estimates in global CH₄ accounting. 

Record-high air temperatures were observed over Greenland in the summer of 2019 and melting of the northern Greenland Ice Sheet was particularly extensive. Here we show, through direct measurements, that near surface ocean temperatures in Sherard Osborn Fjord, northern Greenland, reached 4 °C in August 2019, while in the neighboring Petermann Fjord, they never exceeded 0 °C. We show that this disparity in temperature between the two fjords occurred because thick multi-year sea ice at the entrance of Sherard Osborn Fjord trapped the surface waters inside the fjord, which led to the formation of a warm and fresh surface layer. These results suggest that the presence of multi-year sea ice increases the sensitivity of Greenland fjords abutting the Arctic Ocean to climate warming, with potential consequences for the long-term stability of the northern sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Lakes and reservoirs are important emitters of climate forcing trace gases. Various environmental drivers of the flux, such as temperature and wind speed, have been identified, but their relative importance remains poorly understood. Here we use an extensive field dataset to disentangle physical and biogeochemical controls on the turbulence-driven diffusive flux of methane (CH4) on daily to multi-year timescales. We compare 8 years of floating chamber fluxes from three small, shallow subarctic lakes (2010–2017, n = 1306) with fluxes computed using 9 years of surface water concentration measurements (2009–2017, n = 606) and a small-eddy surface renewal model informed by in situ meteorological observations. Chamber fluxes averaged 6.9 ± 0.3 mg m−2 d−1 and gas transfer velocities (k600) from the chamber-calibrated surface renewal model averaged 4.0 ± 0.1 cm h−1. We find robust (R2 ≥ 0.93, p < 0.01) Arrhenius-type temperature functions of the CH4 flux (Ea' = 0.90 ± 0.14 eV) and of the surface CH4 concentration (Ea' = 0.88 ± 0.09 eV). Chamber derived gas transfer velocities tracked the power-law wind speed relation of the model (k ∝ u3/4). While the flux increased with wind speed, during storm events (U10 ≥ 6.5 m s−1) emissions were reduced by rapid water column degassing. Spectral analysis revealed that on timescales shorter than a month emissions were driven by wind shear, but on longer timescales variations in water temperature governed the flux, suggesting emissions were strongly coupled to production. Our findings suggest that accurate short- and long term projections of lake CH4 emissions can be based on distinct weather- and climate controlled drivers of the flux.

In the current era of rapid climate change, accurate characterization of climate-relevant gas dynamics – namely production, consumption, and net emissions – is required for all biomes, especially those ecosystems most susceptible to the impact of change. Marine environments include regions that act as net sources or sinks for numerous climate-active trace gases including methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O). The temporal and spatial distributions of CH₄ and N₂O are controlled by the interaction of complex biogeochemical and physical processes. To evaluate and quantify how these mechanisms affect marine CH₄ and N₂O cycling requires a combination of traditional scientific disciplines including oceanography, microbiology, and numerical modeling. Fundamental to these efforts is ensuring that the datasets produced by independent scientists are comparable and interoperable. Equally critical is transparent communication within the research community about the technical improvements required to increase our collective understanding of marine CH₄ and N₂O. A workshop sponsored by Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) was organized to enhance dialogue and collaborations pertaining to marine CH₄ and N₂O. Here, we summarize the outcomes from the workshop to describe the challenges and opportunities for near-future CH₄ and N₂O research in the marine environment.

The processes controlling advance and retreat of outlet glaciers in fjords draining the Greenland Ice Sheet remain poorly known, undermining assessments of their dynamics and associated sea-level rise in a warming climate. Mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased six-fold over the last four decades, with discharge and melt from outlet glaciers comprising key components of this loss. Here we acquired oceanographic data and multibeam bathymetry in the previously uncharted Sherard Osborn Fjord in northwest Greenland where Ryder Glacier drains into the Arctic Ocean. Our data show that warmer subsurface water of Atlantic origin enters the fjord, but Ryder Glacier's floating tongue at its present location is partly protected from the inflow by a bathymetric sill located in the innermost fjord. This reduces under-ice melting of the glacier, providing insight into Ryder Glacier's dynamics and its vulnerability to inflow of Atlantic warmer water. A bathymetric sill in Sherard Osborn Fjord, northwest Greenland shields Ryder Glacier from melting by warm Atlantic water found at the bottom of the fjord, according to high-resolution bathymetric mapping and oceanographic data.