Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

Studies show that economic growth contributes to biodiversity loss and that, after a certain threshold, it does not contribute to wellbeing. Thus, when developing biodiversity scenarios, considering societal futures where economic growth is not a pre-condition deserves special attention. However, to date, degrowth scenarios have not been explored for biodiversity conservation and human wellbeing. In this paper, we explain how the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) and other approaches could be used to generate degrowth scenarios for biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people (NCP) and good quality of life (GQL) based on multiple societal values. We present key methodological steps of such an endeavour, including: (i) producing degrowth visions for high-income countries; (ii) identifying leverage points and imagining degrowth pathways; (iii) identifying key social–ecological interactions; and (iv) modelling biodiversity, NCP, and GQL along degrowth scenarios. Our proposal is framed within current theoretical, empirical, and modelling work as well as within efforts to improve scenario development across the biodiversity and climate communities. To develop degrowth scenarios for biodiversity, NCP, and GQL, we call for collaboration across natural and social sciences, quantitative and qualitative approaches, and northern and southern perspectives. This collaboration could lead to a community of practice that tests and improves the degrowth scenarios in national and international science–policy interfaces as they set out to achieve the Convention on Biological Diversity’s 2050 vision of living in harmony with nature.

There is increasing interest and hype around the need for transforming food systems toward sustainability. Today, calls for food systems transformations abound in the scholarly and gray literature, and even major international platforms have brought attention to this argument. However, as happens with many sustainability-related buzzwords, trendy terms can become co-opted, emptied of meaning, or used to refer to very different types of change in relation to goals, processes, or outcomes. In addition, many terms and theories are adopted to speak of and explain change. Therefore, what is meant by food system transformation remains opaque, and underscores the fact that food systems themselves are understood in multiple ways within the research community. As the urgency in accelerating food system transformations worldwide builds up, it is important to understand how this field has evolved and how food system change is conceptualized today. We offer an overview and synthesis of the scholarly literature in English and Spanish anchored on food systems change in the past three decades to shed light on how the theory and literature landscape has evolved, and how concepts are understood. At the same time, we provide an overview of the mechanisms of change that are most prominent and the frameworks that have been proposed. We conclude with what we think is a key definition of this critical concept. Our contribution serves to confirm and expand recent reviews, while mapping out the most prominent contributions to allow fellow researchers to navigate a diverse field and build upon these insights.

Despite the critical importance of small-scale fisheries for food security and well-being and the role of fishers as stewards of aquatic ecosystems, their future is uncertain. Tackling narratives that portray small-scale fisheries as obsolete, disparate, and inefficient requires collectively imagining and articulating new, creative, and inspiring narratives that reflect their real contributions and enable transformative futures. Drawing on a transdisciplinary country -level case study, we analyze the process and outcomes of co -creating desirable, plural, and meaningful visions of the future for small-scale fisheries in Uruguay. Using an arts -based approach and leveraging the agency of emerging innovative initiatives throughout the country, different food system actors (fish workers, chefs, entrepreneurs) and knowledge systems (local, experience -based, and scientific) were engaged in a creative visioning process. The results of this artsbased co -creation process include (1) a series of desirable visions and narratives, synthesized into an artistic boundary object; and (2) the stepping stones to a transformative space for collective reflection, learning, and action. Although the artistic boundary object has proven instrumental among multiple and diverse participants, the transformative space encouraged academic and non-academic participants to plan collective actions and to feel more confident, motivated, and optimistic about the future of small-scale fisheries in Uruguay. With this paper we provide a tool, a platform, and a roadmap to counter the dominant bleak narrative, while also communicating the elements that constitute desirable futures for small-scale fisheries in Uruguay. On a broader scale, our contribution reinforces the emerging narrative of the key role that small-scale fisheries have, and will play, in local and global food systems.

Radical and quick transformations towards sustainability will be fundamental to achieving a more sustainable future. However, deliberate interventions to reconfigure systems will result in winners and losers, with the potential for greater or lesser equity and justice outcomes. Positive tipping points (PTPs) have been proposed as interventions in complex systems with the aim to (a) reduce the likelihood of negative Earth system tipping points and/or (b) increase the likelihood of achieving just social foundations. However, many narratives around PTPs often do not take into account the entire spectrum of impacts the proposed alternatives could have or still rely on narratives that maintain current unsustainable behaviours and marginalize many people (i.e. do not take “b” into account). One such example is the move from petrol-based to electric vehicles. An energy transition that remains based on natural resource inputs from the Global South must be unpacked with an equity and justice lens to understand the true cost of this transition. There are two arguments why a critical engagement with these and other similar proposals needs to be made. First, the idea of transitioning through a substitution (e.g. of fuel) while maintaining the system structure (e.g. of private vehicles) may not necessarily be conceived as the kind of radical transformation being called for by global scientific bodies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). Second, and probably more importantly, the question of positive for whom, positive where, and positive how must be considered. In this paper, we unpack these narratives using a critical decolonial view from the south and outline their implications for the concept of tipping points.

In response to the climate and biodiversity crisis, the number of transdisciplinary research projects in which researchers partner with sustainability initiatives to foster transformative change is increasing globally. To enable and catalyze substantial transformative change, transformative transdisciplinary research (TTDR) is urgently needed to provide knowledge and guidance for actions. We review prominent discussions on TTDR and draw on our experiences from research projects in the Global South and North. Drawing on this, we identify key gaps and stimulate debate on how sustainability researchers can enable and catalyze transformative change by advancing five priority areas: clarify what TTDR is, conduct meaningful people-centric research, unpack how to act at deep leverage points, improve engagement with diverse knowledge systems, and explore potentials and risks of global digitalization for transformative change.

The practice of envisioning the future has deep roots in the past. Across the continent of Africa, there are traditions of oral storytelling, griots, folklore, and indigenous speculation that offer guidance on how to live in the present and orient towards better futures. Whilst these traditions can act as navigational compasses, they are not prevalent in conventional futuring methodologies. Rather, we are surrounded by perspectives of thinking about the future as a projection of current trends. In this perspective, we offer a new heuristic, the Entangled Time Tree, to the body of futuring approaches for how to acknowledge multiple pasts and alternative ways of conceptualizing futures. We recognise that in a decolonial approach, it is necessary to consider a multiplicity of pasts that lead to diverse presents and futures; a recognition that we see reflected in Africanfuturism and in traditional storytelling that further offer diverse ways of understanding temporality and futures. We propose that the diverse forms of storytelling across the African continent constitute critically underexplored forms of knowledge for enabling a decolonial approach to futuring through three mechanisms -stories as power, stories as healing, and stories as diversification. We argue that centering these stories will allow the exploration of more just and ecologically sustainable futures. We recognise that this is just a first, but we hope a promising, step towards a longer term commitment of creating more diverse, imaginative visions and pathways of a decolonial future that will be useful not only on the African continent, but globally.

To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity—Living in harmony with nature—is that “By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”. In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of “living in harmony with nature” have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures.

Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.

The high seas are experiencing a stark increase in industrial activities, with resources being exploited unsustainably and shared unequally. This suggests the need for a transformation, a shift in the deeper structures of the system such as underlying paradigms and mind-sets. We created future visions by combining computational text analysis with a structured, yet creative futuring approach. This process resulted in four science fiction stories, which aim to capture the complexity of the system, embrace the inherent uncertainty of the future and question current unsustainable trajectories, while emphasizing the vastness of future option space. The visions are analyzed using the concept of imaginaries, demonstrating that futuristic stories can be traced back to current realities and the scientific evidence they were based upon. We argue that engaging with alternative futures can open up transformative spaces to rethink the relationships between humans and the high seas, from which novel imaginaries can emerge.