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Publications (10 of 45) Show all publications
Lashgari, K., Brattström, G., Moberg, A. & Sundberg, R. (2022). Evaluation of simulated responses to climate forcings: a flexible statistical framework using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling – Part 1: Theory. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 8(2), 225-248
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evaluation of simulated responses to climate forcings: a flexible statistical framework using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling – Part 1: Theory
2022 (English)In: Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, E-ISSN 2364-3587, Vol. 8, no 2, p. 225-248Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Evaluation of climate model simulations is a crucial task in climate research. Here, a new statistical framework is proposed for evaluation of simulated temperature responses to climate forcings against temperature reconstructions derived from climate proxy data for the last millennium. The framework includes two types of statistical models, each of which is based on the concept of latent (unobservable) variables: confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models and structural equation modelling (SEM) models. Each statistical model presented is developed for use with data from a single region, which can be of any size. The ideas behind the framework arose partly from a statistical model used in many detection and attribution (D&A) studies. Focusing on climatological characteristics of five specific forcings of natural and anthropogenic origin, the present work theoretically motivates an extension of the statistical model used in D&A studies to CFA and SEM models, which allow, for example, for non-climatic noise in observational data without assuming the additivity of the forcing effects. The application of the ideas of CFA is exemplified in a small numerical study, whose aim was to check the assumptions typically placed on ensembles of climate model simulations when constructing mean sequences. The result of this study indicated that some ensembles for some regions may not satisfy the assumptions in question.

National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-214598 (URN)10.5194/ascmo-8-225-2022 (DOI)2-s2.0-85145563123 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council, C0592401
Available from: 2023-02-06 Created: 2023-02-06 Last updated: 2023-02-10Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, R. (2021). Lineära Statistiska Modeller: Kompendium. Stockholm University
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Lineära Statistiska Modeller: Kompendium
2021 (Swedish)Other (Other academic)
Place, publisher, year, pages
Stockholm University, 2021. p. 291
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-201460 (URN)
Note

Avsett primärt för kursen MT5001

Available from: 2022-01-25 Created: 2022-01-25 Last updated: 2022-01-26Bibliographically approved
Andersson, M. & Sundberg, R. (2021). Subjectivity (Re)visited: A Corpus Study of English Forward Causal Connectives in Different Domains of Spoken and Written Language. Discourse processes, 58(3), 260-292
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Subjectivity (Re)visited: A Corpus Study of English Forward Causal Connectives in Different Domains of Spoken and Written Language
2021 (English)In: Discourse processes, ISSN 0163-853X, E-ISSN 1532-6950, Vol. 58, no 3, p. 260-292Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Through a structured examination of four English causal discourse connectives, our article tackles a gap in the existing research, which focuses mainly on written language production, and entirely lacks attests on English spoken discourse. Given the alleged general nature of English connectives commonly emphasized in the literature, the underlying question of our investigation is the potential role of the connective phrases in marking the basic conceptual distinction between objective and subjective causal event types. To this end, our study combines a traditional corpus analysis with 'predictive' statistical modeling for subjectivity variables to investigate whether and how the tendencies found in the corpus depend on the systematic preferences of the language user to encode subjectivity via a discourse connective. Our findings suggest that while certain conceptual structures are quite fundamental to the usages of English connectives, the connectives per se do not seem to have a steady part in categorization of causal events. Rather, their role pertains to the level of intended explicitness bound to specific rhetorical purposes and contexts of use.

Keywords
English connectives, subjectivity, causality, predictive statistics, inferential statistics
National Category
Languages and Literature
Research subject
Linguistics; English; Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192051 (URN)10.1080/0163853X.2020.1847581 (DOI)000605034400001 ()
Available from: 2021-04-09 Created: 2021-04-09 Last updated: 2023-12-14Bibliographically approved
Rydén, J. & Sundberg, R. (2021). Willy Feller vid Stockholms högskola, 1934–1939: En gigant inom sannolikhetsteorin på svensk mark. Qvintense, 2021(2), 4-8
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Willy Feller vid Stockholms högskola, 1934–1939: En gigant inom sannolikhetsteorin på svensk mark
2021 (Swedish)In: Qvintense, ISSN 2000-1819, Vol. 2021, no 2, p. 4-8Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Harald Cramér utnämndes 1929 till professor i forsäkringsmatematik och matematisk statistik vid Stockholms högskola. Efter nagra år hade han ett eget institut, Institutet for forsäkringsmatematik och matematisk statistik, med egna lokaler vid Odengatan, och 1-2 anstallda amanuenser. Där bedrevs en livlig verksamhet.

Cramér hade ett brett kontakt nät bland stora namn inom sannolikhetsteorin. I hans outgivna memoarer, "Korta minnen fran ett långt liv", kan man läsa om nära kontakter med t.ex. Lévy och Féechet i Paris. I Institutets seminarieserie märks internationella namn som t.ex. Theodore (Ted) W. Anderson, Jerzy Neyman - och från 1934 en begåvad ung matematiker vid namn Willy Feller, som gästade Institutet under nära fem års tid.

Det är Feller som är ämnet för var uppsats, en sedermera berömd probabilist, inte minst känd för sina två böcker i ämnet. 

Keywords
Willy Feller, mathematician, probabilist, Stockholm
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-199349 (URN)
Available from: 2021-12-03 Created: 2021-12-03 Last updated: 2022-01-21Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, R. (2019). Statistical Modelling by Exponential Families. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Statistical Modelling by Exponential Families
2019 (English)Book (Refereed)
Abstract [en]

This book is a readable, digestible introduction to exponential families, encompassing statistical models based on the most useful distributions in statistical theory, including the normal, gamma, binomial, Poisson, and negative binomial. Strongly motivated by applications, it presents the essential theory and then demonstrates the theory's practical potential by connecting it with developments in areas like item response analysis, social network models, conditional independence and latent variable structures, and point process models. Extensions to incomplete data models and generalized linear models are also included. In addition, the author gives a concise account of the philosophy of Per Martin-Löf in order to connect statistical modelling with ideas in statistical physics, including Boltzmann's law. Written for graduate students and researchers with a background in basic statistical inference, the book includes a vast set of examples demonstrating models for applications and exercises embedded within the text as well as at the ends of chapters.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2019. p. 282
Series
Institute of Mathematical Statistics Textbooks ; 12
Keywords
Econometrics and Mathematical Methods, General Statistics and Probability, Statistics and Probability, Statistical Theory and Methods
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-174512 (URN)10.1017/9781108604574 (DOI)978-1-108-47659-1 (ISBN)978-1-108-70111-2 (ISBN)978-1-108-60457-4 (ISBN)
Available from: 2019-10-07 Created: 2019-10-07 Last updated: 2022-01-24Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, R. (2018). A Note on “Shaved Dice” Inference. American Statistician, 72(2), 155-157
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A Note on “Shaved Dice” Inference
2018 (English)In: American Statistician, ISSN 0003-1305, E-ISSN 1537-2731, Vol. 72, no 2, p. 155-157Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Two dice are rolled repeatedly, only their sum is registered. Have the two dice been shaved, so two of the six sides appear more frequently? Pavlides and Perlman discussed this somewhat complicated type of situation through curved exponential families. Here, we contrast their approach by regarding data as incomplete data from a simple exponential family. The latter, supplementary approach is in some respects simpler, it provides additional insight about the relationships among the likelihood equation, the Fisher information, and the EM algorithm, and it illustrates the information content in ancillary statistics.

Keywords
Ancillarity, Curved exponential families, EM algorithm, Incomplete data model, ML estimation, Multinomial model
National Category
Mathematics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-157848 (URN)10.1080/00031305.2016.1277162 (DOI)000434344300005 ()
Available from: 2018-06-26 Created: 2018-06-26 Last updated: 2022-01-21Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, R. (2018). Statistiska forskningsgruppen SFG under 70 år, 1948–2018: Sammanställning gjord av Rolf Sundberg i anledning av 70-årsjubileet, 7 nov. 2018.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Statistiska forskningsgruppen SFG under 70 år, 1948–2018: Sammanställning gjord av Rolf Sundberg i anledning av 70-årsjubileet, 7 nov. 2018
2018 (Swedish)Other (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Abstract [sv]

Förteckning årsvis över SFGs ordf, sekr/skattm (sammanslås 1959) och föreståndare (fr. 1992/93), samt parentetiska anmärkningar. Utförligare kommentarer i många fall finns i påföljande noter. 

Publisher
p. 5
Keywords
matematisk statistik, Stockholms universitet, konsultverksamhet
National Category
Mathematics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-201194 (URN)
Available from: 2022-01-20 Created: 2022-01-20 Last updated: 2022-01-21Bibliographically approved
Gummesson, S., Sundberg, R., Knutsson, H., Zetterlund, P., Molin, F. & Knutsson, K. (2017). Lithic Raw Material Economy in the Mesolithic: Experimental Test of Edged Tool Efficiency and Durability in Bone Tool Production. Lithic Technology, 42(4), 140-154
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Lithic Raw Material Economy in the Mesolithic: Experimental Test of Edged Tool Efficiency and Durability in Bone Tool Production
Show others...
2017 (English)In: Lithic Technology, ISSN 0197-7261, Vol. 42, no 4, p. 140-154Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The foundation of this paper is lithic economy with a focus on the actual use of different lithic raw materials for tasks at hand. Our specific focus is on the production of bone tools during the Mesolithic. The lithic and osseous assemblages from Strandvägen, Motala, in east-central Sweden provide the archaeological background for the study. Based on a series of experiments we evaluate the efficiency and durability of different tool edges of five lithic raw materials: Cambrian flint, Cretaceous flint, mylonitic quartz, quartz, and porphyry, each used to whittle bone. The results show that flint is the most efficient of the raw materials assessed. Thus, a non-local raw material offers complements of functional characteristics for bone working compared to locally available quartz and mylonitic quartz. This finding provides a new insight into lithic raw material distribution in the region, specifically for bone tool production on site. 

Keywords
Lithic raw material, experimental archeology, efficiency, durability, Mesolithic
National Category
Archaeology
Research subject
Archaeology; Osteoarchaeology
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-149450 (URN)10.1080/01977261.2017.1374584 (DOI)000418332000001 ()
Available from: 2017-11-30 Created: 2017-11-30 Last updated: 2022-01-24Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, R. (2017). Minnen och meningar. Qvintense, 2017(2), 20-22
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Minnen och meningar
2017 (Swedish)In: Qvintense, ISSN 2000-1819, Vol. 2017, no 2, p. 20-22Article in journal (Other academic) Published
Abstract [sv]

Rolf Sundberg utsågs av Statistikfrämjandet till årets statistikfrämjare. Här berättar han om hur han blev statistiker och sedan fortsatt att jobba inom detta område. Dessutom synpunkter på kurser, forskning, teori/tillämpningar och bredd/djup i forskningen.

National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-201475 (URN)
Available from: 2022-01-25 Created: 2022-01-25 Last updated: 2022-01-26Bibliographically approved
Sundberg, R. & Feldmann, U. (2016). Exploratory factor analysis-Parameter estimation and scores prediction with high-dimensional data. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 148, 49-59
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Exploratory factor analysis-Parameter estimation and scores prediction with high-dimensional data
2016 (English)In: Journal of Multivariate Analysis, ISSN 0047-259X, E-ISSN 1095-7243, Vol. 148, p. 49-59Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

In an approach aiming at high-dimensional situations, we first introduce a distribution-free approach to parameter estimation in the standard random factor model, that is shown to lead to the same estimating equations as maximum likelihood estimation under normality. The derivation is considerably simpler, and works equally well in the case of more variables than observations (p>n). We next concentrate on the latter case and show results of type:

• Albeit factor loadings and specific variances cannot be precisely estimated unless n is large, this is not needed for the factor scores to be precise, but only that p is large;

• A classical fixed point iteration method can be expected to converge safely and rapidly, provided p is large. A microarray data set, with p=2000 and n=22, is used to illustrate this theoretical result.

Keywords
EFA, FA, Factor score estimation, Fixed point iteration, Likelihood equations, More variables than observations, SVD
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Research subject
Mathematical Statistics
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-131188 (URN)10.1016/j.jmva.2016.02.013 (DOI)000375826400004 ()
Available from: 2016-06-20 Created: 2016-06-14 Last updated: 2022-01-25Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-4453-7403

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