The Miocene (∼23–5 Ma) is a past warm epoch when global surface temperatures varied between ∼5 and 8°C warmer than today, and CO₂ concentration was ∼400–800 ppm. The narrowing/closing of the tropical ocean gateways and widening of high-latitude gateways throughout the Miocene is likely responsible for the evolution of the ocean's overturning circulation to its modern structure, though the mechanisms remain unclear. Here, we investigate early and middle Miocene ocean circulation in an opportunistic climate model intercomparison (MioMIP1), using 14 simulations with different paleogeography, CO₂, and vegetation. The strength of the Southern Ocean-driven Meridional Overturning Circulation (SOMOC) bottom cell is similar in the Miocene and Pre-Industrial (PI) but dominates the Miocene global MOC due to weaker Northern Hemisphere overturning. The Miocene Atlantic MOC (AMOC) is weaker than PI in all the simulations (by 2–21 Sv), possibly due to its connection with an Arctic that is considerably fresher than today. Deep overturning in the North Pacific (PMOC) is present in three simulations (∼5–10 Sv), of which two have a weaker AMOC, and one has a stronger AMOC (compared to its PMOC). Surface freshwater fluxes control northern overturning such that the basin with the least freshwater gain has stronger overturning. While the orography, which impacts runoff direction (Pacific vs. Atlantic), has an inconsistent impact on northern overturning across simulations, overall, features associated with the early Miocene—such as a lower Tibetan Plateau, the Rocky Mountains, and a deeper Panama Seaway—seem to favor PMOC over AMOC.

Planktonic foraminifera are calcifying protists that represent a minor but important part of the pelagic microzooplankton. They are found in all of Earth's ocean basins and are widely studied in sediment records to reconstruct climatic and environmental changes throughout geological time. The Arctic Ocean is currently being transformed in response to modern climate change; however, the effect on planktonic foraminiferal populations is virtually unknown. Here, we provide the first systematic sampling of planktonic foraminifera communities in the "high"Arctic Ocean - defined in this work as areas north of 80° N - specifically in the broad region located between northern Greenland (the Lincoln Sea with its adjoining fjords and the Morris Jesup Rise), the Yermak Plateau, and the North Pole. Stratified depth tows down to 1000 m using a multinet were performed to reveal the species composition and spatial variability in these communities below the summer sea ice. The average abundance in the top 200 m ranged between 15 and 65 individuals m-3 in the central Arctic Ocean and was 0.3 individuals m-3 in the shelf area of the Lincoln Sea. At all stations, except one site at the Yermak Plateau, assemblages consisted solely of the polar specialist Neogloboquadrina pachyderma. It predominated in the top 100 m, where it was likely feeding on phytoplankton below the ice. Near the Yermak Plateau, at the outer edge of the pack ice, rare specimens of Turborotalita quinqueloba occurred that appeared to be associated with the inflowing Atlantic Water layer. Our results would suggest that the anticipated turnover from polar to subpolar planktonic species in the perennially ice-covered part of the central Arctic Ocean has not yet occurred, in agreement with a recent meta-analysis from the Fram Strait which suggested that the increased export of sea ice is blocking the influx of Atlantic-sourced species. The presented data set will be a valuable reference for continued monitoring of the abundance and composition of planktonic foraminifera communities as they respond to the ongoing sea-ice decline and the "Atlantification"of the Arctic Ocean basin. Additionally, the results can be used to assist paleoceanographic interpretations, based on sedimented foraminifera assemblages.

The boron isotope (δ¹¹B) proxy for seawater pH is a tried and tested means to reconstruct atmospheric CO₂ in the geologic past, but uncertainty remains over how to treat species-specific calibrations that link foraminiferal δ¹¹B to pH estimates prior to 22 My. In addition, no δ¹¹B-based reconstructions of atmospheric CO₂ exist for wide swaths of the Oligocene (33–23 Ma), and large variability in CO₂ reconstructions during this epoch based on other proxy evidence leaves climate evolution during this period relatively unconstrained. To add to our understanding of Oligocene and early Miocene climate, we generated new atmospheric CO₂ estimates from new δ¹¹B data from fossil shells of surface-dwelling planktic foraminifera from the mid-Oligocene to early Miocene (∼28–18 Ma). We estimate atmospheric CO₂ of ∼680 ppm for the mid-Oligocene, which then evolves to fluctuate between ∼500–570 ppm during the late Oligocene and between ∼420–700 ppm in the early Miocene. These estimates tend to trend higher than Oligo-Miocene CO₂ estimates from other proxies, although we observe good proxy agreement in the late Oligocene. Reconstructions of CO₂ fall lower than estimates from paleoclimate model simulations in the early Miocene and mid Oligocene, which indicates that more proxy and/or model refinement is needed for these periods. Our species cross-calibrations, assessing δ¹¹B, Mg/Ca, δ¹⁸O, and δ¹³C, are able to pinpoint and evaluate small differences in the geochemistry of surface-dwelling planktic foraminifera, lending confidence to paleoceanographers applying this approach even further back in time.

Climate tipping elements are large-scale subsystems of the Earth that may transgress critical thresholds (tipping points) under ongoing global warming, with substantial impacts on the biosphere and human societies. Frequently studied examples of such tipping elements include the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), permafrost, monsoon systems, and the Amazon rainforest. While recent scientific efforts have improved our knowledge about individual tipping elements, the interactions between them are less well understood. Also, the potential of individual tipping events to induce additional tipping elsewhere or stabilize other tipping elements is largely unknown. Here, we map out the current state of the literature on the interactions between climate tipping elements and review the influences between them. To do so, we gathered evidence from model simulations, observations, and conceptual understanding, as well as examples of paleoclimate reconstructions where multi-component or spatially propagating transitions were potentially at play. While uncertainties are large, we find indications that many of the interactions between tipping elements are destabilizing. Therefore, we conclude that tipping elements should not only be studied in isolation, but also more emphasis has to be put on potential interactions. This means that tipping cascades cannot be ruled out on centennial to millennial timescales at global warming levels between 1.5 and 2.0 ∘C or on shorter timescales if global warming surpassed 2.0 ∘C. At these higher levels of global warming, tipping cascades may then include fast tipping elements such as the AMOC or the Amazon rainforest. To address crucial knowledge gaps in tipping element interactions, we propose four strategies combining observation-based approaches, Earth system modeling expertise, computational advances, and expert knowledge.

The Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT) (∼34 Ma) is marked by the rapid development of a semi-permanent Antarctic ice-sheet, as indicated by ice-rafted debris and a 1–1.5‰ increase in deep sea δ¹⁸O. Proxy reconstructions indicate a drop in atmospheric CO₂ and global cooling. How these changes affected surface ocean temperatures in the North Atlantic and ocean water stratification remains poorly constrained. In this study, we apply clumped-isotope thermometry to well-preserved planktonic foraminifera, that are associated with lower mixed-layer to subthermocline dwelling depths from the drift sediments at international ocean discovery program Site 1411, Newfoundland, across four intervals bracketing the EOT. The thermocline/lower mixed-layer dwelling foraminifera record a cooling of 1.9 ± 3.5 K (mean ± 95% CI) across the EOT. While the cooling amplitude is similar to previous sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions, absolute temperatures (Eocene 20.0 ± 2.9°C, Oligocene 18.0 ± 2.2°C) appear colder than previous organic proxy reconstructions for the northernmost Atlantic extrapolated to this location. We discuss seasonal bias, recording depth, and appropriate consideration of paleolatitudes, all of which complicate the comparison between SST reconstructions and model output. Our subthermocline dwelling foraminifera record a larger cooling across the EOT (Eocene 19.0 ± 3.5°C, Oligocene 13.0 ± 3.2°C, cooling of 5.5 ± 4.6 K) than foraminifera from the thermocline/lower mixed-layer, consistent with global cooling and an increase in ocean stratification which may be related to the onset or intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

The oxygen isotopic composition of benthic foraminiferal tests (δ¹⁸O_b) is one of the pre-eminent tools for correlating marine sediments and interpreting past terrestrial ice volume and deep-ocean temperatures. Despite the prevalence of δ¹⁸O_b applications to marine sediment cores over the Quaternary, its use is limited in the Arctic Ocean because of low benthic foraminiferal abundances, challenges with constructing independent sediment core age models, and an apparent muted amplitude of Arctic δ¹⁸O_b variability compared to open-ocean records. Here we evaluate the controls on Arctic δ¹⁸O_b by using ostracode  paleothermometry to generate a composite record of the δ¹⁸O of seawater (δ¹⁸O_sw) from 12 sediment cores in the intermediate to deep Arctic Ocean (700–2700 m) that covers the last 600 kyr based on biostratigraphy and orbitally tuned age models. Results show that Arctic δ¹⁸O_b was generally higher than open-ocean δ¹⁸O_b during interglacials but was generally equivalent to global reference records during glacial periods. The reduced glacial–interglacial Arctic δ¹⁸O_b range resulted in part from the opposing effect of temperature, with intermediate to deep Arctic warming during glacials counteracting the whole-ocean δ¹⁸O_sw increase from expanded terrestrial ice sheets. After removing the temperature effect from δ¹⁸O_b, we find that the intermediate to deep Arctic experienced large (≥1 ‰) variations in local δ¹⁸O_sw, with generally higher local δ¹⁸O_sw during interglacials and lower δ¹⁸O_sw during glacials. Both the magnitude and timing of low local δ¹⁸O_sw intervals are inconsistent with the recent proposal of freshwater intervals in the Arctic Ocean during past glaciations. Instead, we suggest that lower local δ¹⁸O_sw in the intermediate to deep Arctic Ocean during glaciations reflected weaker upper-ocean stratification and more efficient transport of low-δ¹⁸O_sw Arctic surface waters to depth by mixing and/or brine rejection.

The extent and seasonality of Arctic sea ice during the Last Interglacial (129,000 to 115,000 years before present) is poorly known. Sediment-based reconstructions have suggested extensive ice cover in summer, while climate model outputs indicate year-round conditions in the Arctic Ocean ranging from ice free to fully ice covered. Here we use microfossil records from across the central Arctic Ocean to show that sea-ice extent was substantially reduced and summers were probably ice free. The evidence comes from high abundances of the subpolar planktic foraminifera Turborotalita quinqueloba in five newly analysed cores. The northern occurrence of this species is incompatible with perennial sea ice, which would be associated with a thick, low-salinity surface water. Instead, T. quinqueloba's ecological preference implies largely ice-free surface waters with seasonally elevated levels of primary productivity. In the modern ocean, this species thrives in the Fram Strait-Barents Sea 'Arctic-Atlantic gateway' region, implying that the necessary Atlantic Ocean-sourced water masses shoaled towards the surface during the Last Interglacial. This process reflects the ongoing Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean, currently restricted to the Eurasian Basin. Our results establish the Last Interglacial as a prime analogue for studying a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean, expected to occur this century. The warm Last Interglacial led to a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean and a transformation to Atlantic conditions, according to planktic foraminifera records from central Arctic Ocean sediment cores.

The timing and modalities of calcareous phytoplankton community and evolutionary responses to the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT, ~34 Ma) are still under-investigated. In order to better constrain the dynamics of these pelagic primary producers during the climate transition, we conducted high resolution assemblage analysis on calcareous nannofossils across a ~19 m-thick interval of nannofossil ooze at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 756 (Ninetyeast Ridge, Indian Ocean; Peirce et al. 1989) (paleolatitude ~43° S; Zachos et al. 1992). We explored the diversity patterns against a new integrated planktonic foraminifera and calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphy produced for the site, as well as new benthic foraminifera and bulk sediment stable isotope (C, O) records, which documents ocean-climate changes, and provides independent chemostratigraphy. The study section spans nannofossil Zones NP20-NP23 (equivalent to CNE20-CNO4) and lasts 5.5 Myr. The results show that the hankeninid extinction falls within the ~4.5 m-thick EOT isotopic interval (0.67 m below the base of the second positive δ18O shift – EOIS), which is consistent with previous studies, making Hole 756C one of a few sites globally boasting both the familiar stepped δ18O and δ13C structure of the EOT and the primary biostratigraphic marker defining the base of the Oligocene. A series of potentially useful new calcareous nannofossil bioevents were identified that could help improve dating and correlation of this crucial interval. In this context, changes in calcareous nannofossil assemblages observed across EOT are interpreted in terms of modifications of paleoecological parameters that typically control the abundance and distribution of different taxa. Variations in sea surface temperature and nutrient availability are considered to be the most likely triggers for the calcareous phytoplankton changes observed across EOT. Specifically, our data suggest that increased nutrients in the mixed layer played a key role in shaping the late Eocene – early Oligocene calcareous nannofossil assemblages.

Analysis of the microfossil content of sediment cores from areas where thick Arctic sea ice persists today reveals that a subpolar species associated with Atlantic water expanded deep into the Arctic Ocean during the Last Interglacial. This finding implies that summers in the Arctic were likely sea-ice-free during this period.