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Crépin, Anne-SophieORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-7370-2973
Publications (10 of 23) Show all publications
Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R. E. V., Avila Ortega, D. I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J., Österblom, H., . . . Crépin, A.-S. (2023). Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, 379(1893), Article ID 20220261.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability
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2023 (English)In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8436, E-ISSN 1471-2970, Vol. 379, no 1893, article id 20220261Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.

Keywords
cultural evolution, social–ecological systems, participatory mapping, complex adaptive systems, evolutionary traps
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-225226 (URN)10.1098/rstb.2022.0261 (DOI)37952617 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85176728902 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council
Available from: 2024-01-11 Created: 2024-01-11 Last updated: 2024-01-12Bibliographically approved
Walker, B., Crépin, A.-S., Nyström, M., Anderies, J. M., Andersson, E., Elmqvist, T., . . . Vincent, J. R. (2023). Response diversity as a sustainability strategy. Nature Sustainability, 6(6), 621-629
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Response diversity as a sustainability strategy
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2023 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 6, no 6, p. 621-629Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.

National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-215461 (URN)10.1038/s41893-022-01048-7 (DOI)000928228800004 ()2-s2.0-85147149552 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-03-16 Created: 2023-03-16 Last updated: 2023-09-25Bibliographically approved
Ntuli, H., Crépin, A.-S., Schill, C. & Muchapondwa, E. (2023). Sanctioned Quotas Versus Information Provisioning for Community Wildlife Conservation in Zimbabwe: A Framed Field Experiment Approach. Environmental and Resource Economics, 84(3), 775-823
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sanctioned Quotas Versus Information Provisioning for Community Wildlife Conservation in Zimbabwe: A Framed Field Experiment Approach
2023 (English)In: Environmental and Resource Economics, ISSN 0924-6460, E-ISSN 1573-1502, Vol. 84, no 3, p. 775-823Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We investigate the behavioural responses of natural common-pool resource users to three policy interventions-sanctioned quotas, information provisioning, and a combination of both. We focus on situations in which users find utility in multiple resources (pastures and wild animal stocks) that all stem from the same ecosystem with complex dynamics, and management could trigger a regime shift, drastically altering resource regrowth. We performed a framed field experiment with 384 villagers from communities managing common-pool wildlife in Zimbabwe. We find that user groups are likely to manage these natural resources more efficiently when facing a policy intervention (either a sanctioned quota, receiving information about a drastic drop in the stocks' regrowth below a threshold, or a combination of both), compared to groups facing no intervention. A sanctioned quota is likely to perform better than providing information about the existence of a threshold. However, having information about the threshold also leads to higher efficiency and fewer depletion cases, compared to a situation without any intervention. The main contribution of this study is to provide insights that can inform policymakers and development practitioners about the performance of concrete and feasible policy interventions for community wildlife conservation in Southern Africa.

Keywords
Common-pool resources, Behavioural experiments, Regime shifts, Information, Sanctioned quota, Thresholds, Southern Africa, Elephants
National Category
Economics and Business Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-215948 (URN)10.1007/s10640-023-00759-5 (DOI)000937066800001 ()2-s2.0-85148534360 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-03-29 Created: 2023-03-29 Last updated: 2023-03-29Bibliographically approved
Arvaniti, M., Krishnamurthy, C. K. & Crépin, A.-S. (2023). Time-consistent renewable resource management with present bias and regime shifts. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 207, 479-495
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Time-consistent renewable resource management with present bias and regime shifts
2023 (English)In: Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, ISSN 0167-2681, E-ISSN 1879-1751, Vol. 207, p. 479-495Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We investigate the extraction plan of present-biased decision makers managing a renewable resource stock whose growth is uncertain and which could undergo a rapid and significant change when stock falls below a threshold. We show that the Markov-Nash equilibrium extraction policy is unique, time consistent, and increasing in resource stock. An increase in the threshold leads to increased resource extraction, rather than the precautionary reduction in extraction often observed with exponential discounting. An increase in the degree of present bias also leads to an increase in resource extraction. Our analysis suggests that accounting for and appropriately dealing with resource managers’ present bias may be important to understand resource use sustainability.

Keywords
Renewable resources, Regime shifts, Hyperbolic discounting, Present bias, Uncertainty, Markov equilibrium
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216892 (URN)10.1016/j.jebo.2023.01.016 (DOI)000967202600001 ()2-s2.0-85147680698 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-05-15 Created: 2023-05-15 Last updated: 2023-05-15Bibliographically approved
Levin, S. A., Anderies, J. M., Adger, N., Barrett, S., Bennett, E. M., Cardenas, J. C., . . . Wilen, J. (2022). Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond. Ecosystems (New York. Print), 25(3), 697-711
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions, and the Need to Go Beyond
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2022 (English)In: Ecosystems (New York. Print), ISSN 1432-9840, E-ISSN 1435-0629, Vol. 25, no 3, p. 697-711Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but once-in-a-century weather events are also becoming more common, leading to erosion, wildfire and even volcanic events that change ecosystems and disturbance regimes, threaten the sustainability of our life-support systems, and challenge the robustness and resilience of societies. Dealing with extremes will require new approaches and large-scale collective action. Preemptive measures can increase general resilience, a first line of protection, while more specific reactive responses are developed. Preemptive measures also can minimize the negative effects of events that cannot be avoided. In this paper, we first explore approaches to prevention, mitigation and adaptation, drawing inspiration from how evolutionary challenges have made biological systems robust and resilient, and from the general theory of complex adaptive systems. We argue further that proactive steps that go beyond will be necessary to reduce unacceptable consequences.

Keywords
Resilience, Robustness, Extreme events, Governance, Prevention, Mitigation, Adaptation
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197955 (URN)10.1007/s10021-021-00680-2 (DOI)000693526700002 ()34512142 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85114407433 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-10-21 Created: 2021-10-21 Last updated: 2022-06-03Bibliographically approved
Elsler, L. G., Haight Frawley, T., Britten, G. L., Crowder, L. B., DuBois, T. C., Radosavljevic, S., . . . Schlüter, M. (2021). Social relationship dynamics mediate climate impacts on income inequality: evidence from the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. Regional Environmental Change, 21(2), Article ID 35.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Social relationship dynamics mediate climate impacts on income inequality: evidence from the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery
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2021 (English)In: Regional Environmental Change, ISSN 1436-3798, E-ISSN 1436-378X, Vol. 21, no 2, article id 35Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Small-scale fisheries are critically important for livelihoods around the world, particularly in tropical regions. However, climate variability and anthropogenic climate change may seriously impact small-scale fisheries by altering the abundance and distribution of target species. Social relationships between fishery users, such as fish traders, can determine how each individual responds and is affected by changes in fisheries. These informal cooperative and competitive relationships provide access, support, and incentives for fishing and affect the distribution of benefits. Yet, individuals' actions and impacts on individuals are often the primary focus of the economic analyses informing small-scale fisheries' formal management. This focus dismisses relevant social relationships. We argue that this leads to a disconnect between reality and its model representation used in formal management, which may reduce formal fisheries management's efficiency and efficacy and potentially trigger adverse consequences. Here, we examine this argument by comparing the predictions of a simple bioeconomic fishery model with those of a social-ecological model that incorporates the dynamics of cooperative relationships between fish traders. We illustrate model outcomes using an empirical case study in the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. We find that (1) the social-ecological model with relationship dynamics substantially improves accuracy in predicting observed fishery variables to the simple bioeconomic model. (2) Income inequality outcomes are associated with changes in cooperative trade relationships. When environmental temperature is included in the model as a driver of species production dynamics, we find that climate-driven temperature variability drives a decline in catch that, in turn, reduce fishers' income. We observe an offset of this loss in income by including cooperative relationships between fish traders (oligopoly) in the model. These relationships break down following species distribution changes and result in an increase in prices fishers receive. Finally, (3) our social-ecological model simulations show that the current fishery development program, which seeks to increase fishers' income through an increase in domestic market demand, is supported by predictions from the simple bioeconomic model, may increase income inequality between fishers and traders. Our findings highlight the real and urgent need to re-think fisheries management models in the context of small-scale fisheries and climate change worldwide to encompass social relationship dynamics.

Keywords
Social structures, Environmental changes, Social-ecological systems modeling, Inequality, Humboldt squid fishery
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-193025 (URN)10.1007/s10113-021-01747-5 (DOI)000633006700001 ()
Available from: 2021-05-11 Created: 2021-05-11 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
Zipper, S. C., Jaramillo, F., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Cornell, S. E., Gleeson, T., Porkka, M., . . . Gordon, L. (2020). Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales. Earth's future, 8(2), Article ID UNSP e2019EF001377.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integrating the Water Planetary Boundary With Water Management From Local to Global Scales
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2020 (English)In: Earth's future, E-ISSN 2328-4277, Vol. 8, no 2, article id UNSP e2019EF001377Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The planetary boundaries framework defines the safe operating space for humanity represented by nine global processes that can destabilize the Earth System if perturbed. The water planetary boundary attempts to provide a global limit to anthropogenic water cycle modifications, but it has been challenging to translate and apply it to the regional and local scales at which water problems and management typically occur. We develop a cross-scale approach by which the water planetary boundary could guide sustainable water management and governance at subglobal contexts defined by physical features (e.g., watershed or aquifer), political borders (e.g., city, nation, or group of nations), or commercial entities (e.g., corporation, trade group, or financial institution). The application of the water planetary boundary at these subglobal contexts occurs via two approaches: (i) calculating fair shares, in which local water cycle modifications are compared to that context's allocation of the global safe operating space, taking into account biophysical, socioeconomic, and ethical considerations; and (ii) defining a local safe operating space, in which interactions between water stores and Earth System components are used to define local boundaries required for sustaining the local water system in stable conditions, which we demonstrate with a case study of the Cienaga Grande de Santa Marta wetlands in Colombia. By harmonizing these two approaches, the water planetary boundary can ensure that water cycle modifications remain within both local and global boundaries and complement existing water management and governance approaches.

Keywords
water management, Earth Systems, cross-scale, water cycle, Anthropocene, planetary boundaries
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-181112 (URN)10.1029/2019EF001377 (DOI)000519739500001 ()
Available from: 2020-04-27 Created: 2020-04-27 Last updated: 2022-03-23Bibliographically approved
Schill, C., Anderies, J. M., Lindahl, T., Folke, C., Polasky, S., Cárdenas, J. C., . . . Schlüter, M. (2019). A more dynamic understanding of human behaviour for the Anthropocene. Nature Sustainability, 2(12), 1075-1082
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A more dynamic understanding of human behaviour for the Anthropocene
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2019 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 12, p. 1075-1082Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Human behaviour is of profound significance in shaping pathways towards sustainability. Yet, the approach to understanding human behaviour in many fields remains reliant on overly simplistic models. For a better understanding of the interface between human behaviour and sustainability, we take work in behavioural economics and cognitive psychology as a starting point, but argue for an expansion of this work by adopting a more dynamic and systemic understanding of human behaviour, that is, as part of complex adaptive systems. A complex adaptive systems approach allows us to capture behaviour as ''enculturated' and 'enearthed', co-evolving with socio-cultural and biophysical contexts. Connecting human behaviour and context through a complex adaptive systems lens is critical to inform environmental governance and management for sustainability, and ultimately to better understand the dynamics of the Anthropocene itself.

National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-177600 (URN)10.1038/s41893-019-0419-7 (DOI)000502144200005 ()
Available from: 2020-01-13 Created: 2020-01-13 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
Havenhand, J. N., Filipsson, H. L., Niiranen, S., Troell, M., Crépin, A.-S., Jagers, S., . . . Anderson, L. G. (2019). Ecological and functional consequences of coastal ocean acidification: Perspectives from the Baltic-Skagerrak System. Ambio, 48(8), 831-854
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Ecological and functional consequences of coastal ocean acidification: Perspectives from the Baltic-Skagerrak System
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2019 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 8, p. 831-854Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ocean temperatures are rising; species are shifting poleward, and pH is falling (ocean acidification, OA). We summarise current understanding of OA in the brackish Baltic-Skagerrak System, focussing on the direct, indirect and interactive effects of OA with other anthropogenic drivers on marine biogeochemistry, organisms and ecosystems. Substantial recent advances reveal a pattern of stronger responses (positive or negative) of species than ecosystems, more positive responses at lower trophic levels and strong indirect interactions in food-webs. Common emergent themes were as follows: OA drives planktonic systems toward the microbial loop, reducing energy transfer to zooplankton and fish; and nutrient/food availability ameliorates negative impacts of OA. We identify several key areas for further research, notably the need for OA-relevant biogeochemical and ecosystem models, and understanding the ecological and evolutionary capacity of Baltic-Skagerrak ecosystems to respond to OA and other anthropogenic drivers.

Keywords
Baltic, Ecosystem services, Eutrophication, Indirect effects, Ocean acidification, Warming
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-170067 (URN)10.1007/s13280-018-1110-3 (DOI)000469438600003 ()30506502 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-07-03 Created: 2019-07-03 Last updated: 2022-03-23Bibliographically approved
Ospina, D., Peterson, G. & Crépin, A.-S. (2019). Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions-a social-ecological regime shift analysis. Environmental Research Letters, 14(2), Article ID 024017.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Migrant remittances can reduce the potential of local forest transitions-a social-ecological regime shift analysis
2019 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 14, no 2, article id 024017Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We explore how remittances shape the effect of rural out-migration on the potential for local forest transitions. Building on an existing theoretical model of social-ecological regime shifts that links migration, farmland abandonment, and forest regrowth, we incorporate migrant remittances as an additional rural-urban teleconnection. We also extend the ecological dynamics to include a dynamical forest regrowth rate, generating a slowing-down of regrowth once the landscape has undergone extensive agricultural change. We first analyse how these two extensions to the base model reshape the stability of the system, altering the existence and dynamics of alternative agricultural and forested regimes. Then we explore how two different uses of remittances by rural households (hiring agricultural labor or supplementing household income/consumption) affect the potential for local forest transitions in a context of structural economic change, represented as an increasing differential of rural and urban incomes. We find that remittances change the character of forested and agricultural regimes, and increase the resilience of the agricultural regime. This effect is stronger when remittances are used for hiring labor. The findings are consistent with empirical research that highlights the remarkable persistence of rural livelihoods and landscapes in the face of increasing global connectivity and urbanization. Remittances, and possibly other rural-urban teleconnections, are necessary components for an updated 'economic development pathway' of forest transitions. With this simple model we show that social-ecological regime shifts offer a useful perspective to study land use transition dynamics and advance land change theory.

Keywords
forest transition, regime shift, migration, remittances, teleconnections, rural-urban
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-166558 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0ee (DOI)000458917800002 ()
Available from: 2019-03-04 Created: 2019-03-04 Last updated: 2024-01-17Bibliographically approved
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ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0002-7370-2973

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