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Wassénius, E., Porkka, M., Nyström, M. & Søgaard Jørgensen, P. (2023). A global analysis of potential self-sufficiency and diversity displays diverse supply risks. Global Food Security, 37, Article ID 100673.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>A global analysis of potential self-sufficiency and diversity displays diverse supply risks
2023 (English)In: Global Food Security, ISSN 2211-9124, Vol. 37, article id 100673Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

International trade plays a fundamental role in today's globalized food system, however, trade-related disruptions to national food supply have become increasingly prevalent. Although national food self-sufficiency and the resilience of domestic food production are both increasingly discussed, they are rarely investigated in tandem. This hinders our understanding of the diversity of risks to national food supply. In this article we investigate the contribution of production to these risks, through the compilation of a comprehensive national production dataset and a multi-indicator assessment of self-sufficiency and diversity. Our results show that most of the world (127 countries and territories, 87% of the global population) achieves high levels of potential self-sufficiency (≥6 nutrients fulfilled), however only 33% of the world population (41 countries) are fully self-sufficient. Of countries with high levels of self-sufficiency, fruit and vegetable production (a proxy for many micronutrients) is the most common “missing” sufficiency. 66 countries (6% of population) have a low degree of self-sufficiency, highlighting potential vulnerability to trade-related disruptions. The relationship between sufficiency and diversity is not homogeneous, highlighting that some production systems are reliant on very few products.

Keywords
Food production, Self-sufficiency, Diversity, Risk, Resilience
National Category
Other Agricultural Sciences Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216882 (URN)10.1016/j.gfs.2023.100673 (DOI)000959452800001 ()2-s2.0-85150458759 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-05-15 Created: 2023-05-15 Last updated: 2024-04-25Bibliographically approved
Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Jansen, R. E. V., Avila Ortega, D. I., Wang-Erlandsson, L., Donges, J., Österblom, H., . . . Crépin, A.-S. (2023). Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, 379(1893), Article ID 20220261.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Evolution of the polycrisis: Anthropocene traps that challenge global sustainability
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2023 (English)In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences, ISSN 0962-8436, E-ISSN 1471-2970, Vol. 379, no 1893, article id 20220261Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Anthropocene is characterized by accelerating change and global challenges of increasing complexity. Inspired by what some have called a polycrisis, we explore whether the human trajectory of increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system could become a form of trap for humanity. Based on an adaptation of the evolutionary traps concept to a global human context, we present results from a participatory mapping. We identify 14 traps and categorize them as either global, technology or structural traps. An assessment reveals that 12 traps (86%) could be in an advanced phase of trapping with high risk of hard-to-reverse lock-ins and growing risks of negative impacts on human well-being. Ten traps (71%) currently see growing trends in their indicators. Revealing the systemic nature of the polycrisis, we assess that Anthropocene traps often interact reinforcingly (45% of pairwise interactions), and rarely in a dampening fashion (3%). We end by discussing capacities that will be important for navigating these systemic challenges in pursuit of global sustainability. Doing so, we introduce evolvability as a unifying concept for such research between the sustainability and evolutionary sciences.

Keywords
cultural evolution, social–ecological systems, participatory mapping, complex adaptive systems, evolutionary traps
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-225226 (URN)10.1098/rstb.2022.0261 (DOI)37952617 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85176728902 (Scopus ID)
Funder
Swedish Research Council
Available from: 2024-01-11 Created: 2024-01-11 Last updated: 2024-01-12Bibliographically approved
Elma, E., Gullström, M., Yahya, S. A. S., Jouffray, J.-B., East, H. K. & Nyström, M. (2023). Post-bleaching alterations in coral reef communities. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 186, Article ID 114479.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Post-bleaching alterations in coral reef communities
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2023 (English)In: Marine Pollution Bulletin, ISSN 0025-326X, E-ISSN 1879-3363, Vol. 186, article id 114479Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We explored the extent of post-bleaching impacts, caused by the 2014-2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event, on benthic community structure (BCS) and herbivores (fish and sea urchins) on seven fringing reefs, with differing protection levels, in Zanzibar, Tanzania. Results showed post-bleaching alterations in BCS, with up to 68 % coral mortality and up to 48 % increase in turf algae cover in all reef sites. Herbivorous fish biomass increased after bleaching and was correlated with turf algae increase in some reefs, while the opposite was found for sea urchin densities, with significant declines and complete absence. The severity of the impact varied across individual reefs, with larger impact on the protected reefs, compared to the unprotected reefs. Our study provides a highly relevant reference point to guide future research and contributes to our understanding of post-bleaching impacts, trends, and evaluation of coral reef health and resilience in the region.

Keywords
El Niño, Coral bleaching, Turf algae, Herbivores, Coral reef resilience, Tanzania
National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216342 (URN)10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114479 (DOI)000954336200001 ()36549237 (PubMedID)2-s2.0-85144417776 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-04-18 Created: 2023-04-18 Last updated: 2023-05-04Bibliographically approved
Walker, B., Crépin, A.-S., Nyström, M., Anderies, J. M., Andersson, E., Elmqvist, T., . . . Vincent, J. R. (2023). Response diversity as a sustainability strategy. Nature Sustainability, 6(6), 621-629
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Response diversity as a sustainability strategy
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2023 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 6, no 6, p. 621-629Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Financial advisers recommend a diverse portfolio to respond to market fluctuations across sectors. Similarly, nature has evolved a diverse portfolio of species to maintain ecosystem function amid environmental fluctuations. In urban planning, public health, transport and communications, food production, and other domains, however, this feature often seems ignored. As we enter an era of unprecedented turbulence at the planetary level, we argue that ample responses to this new reality — that is, response diversity — can no longer be taken for granted and must be actively designed and managed. We describe here what response diversity is, how it is expressed and how it can be enhanced and lost.

National Category
Ecology Environmental Sciences Social Sciences Interdisciplinary
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-215461 (URN)10.1038/s41893-022-01048-7 (DOI)000928228800004 ()2-s2.0-85147149552 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2023-03-16 Created: 2023-03-16 Last updated: 2023-09-25Bibliographically approved
Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Avila Ortega, D. I., Blasiak, R., Cornell, S. E., Gordon, L. J., Nyström, M. & Olsson, P. (2022). The lure of novel biological and chemical entities in food-system transformations. One Earth, 5(10), 1085-1088
Open this publication in new window or tab >>The lure of novel biological and chemical entities in food-system transformations
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2022 (English)In: One Earth, ISSN 2590-3330, E-ISSN 2590-3322, Vol. 5, no 10, p. 1085-1088Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Synthetic chemicals and biologically engineered materials are major forces in today's food systems, but they are also major drivers of the global environmental changes and health challenges that characterize the Anthropocene. To address these challenges, we will need to increase assessment activity, promote alternative production practices with less reliance on such technologies, and regulate social campaigns and experiments. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Cell Press, 2022
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-211904 (URN)10.1016/j.oneear.2022.09.011 (DOI)2-s2.0-85140251126 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-12-06 Created: 2022-12-06 Last updated: 2022-12-06Bibliographically approved
Garmestani, A., Twidwell, D., Angeler, D. G., Sundstrom, S., Barichievy, C., Chaffin, B. C., . . . Allen, C. R. (2020). Panarchy: opportunities and challenges for ecosystem management. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 18(10), 576-583
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Panarchy: opportunities and challenges for ecosystem management
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2020 (English)In: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, ISSN 1540-9295, E-ISSN 1540-9309, Vol. 18, no 10, p. 576-583Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Addressing unexpected events and uncertainty represents one of the grand challenges of the Anthropocene, yet ecosystem management is constrained by existing policy and laws that were not formulated to deal with today's accelerating rates of environmental change. In many cases, managing for simple regulatory standards has resulted in adverse outcomes, necessitating innovative approaches for dealing with complex social–ecological problems. We highlight a project in the US Great Plains where panarchy – a conceptual framework that emerged from resilience – was implemented at project onset to address the continued inability to halt large‐scale transition from grass‐to‐tree dominance in central North America. We review how panarchy was applied, the initial outcomes and evidence for policy reform, and the opportunities and challenges for which it could serve as a useful model to contrast with traditional ecosystem management approaches.

Keywords
Anthropocene, conceptual framework, ecosystem management, environmental change, policy making, policy reform, Great Plains
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-189046 (URN)10.1002/fee.2264 (DOI)2-s2.0-85091759203 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-01-15 Created: 2021-01-15 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
Dajka, J.-C., Woodhead, A. J., Norström, A. V., Graham, N. A. J., Riechers, M. & Nyström, M. (2020). Red and green loops help uncover missing feedbacks in a coral reef social-ecological system. People and Nature, 2(3), 608-618
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Red and green loops help uncover missing feedbacks in a coral reef social-ecological system
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2020 (English)In: People and Nature, E-ISSN 2575-8314, Vol. 2, no 3, p. 608-618Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Social-ecological systems (SES) exhibit complex cause-and-effect relationships. Capturing, interpreting, and responding to signals that indicate changes in ecosystems is key for sustainable management in SES. Breaks in this signal-response chain, when feedbacks are missing, will allow change to continue until a point when abrupt ecological surprises may occur. In these situations, societies and local ecosystems can often become uncoupled. In this paper, we demonstrate how the red loop-green loop (RL-GL) concept can be used to uncover missing feedbacks and to better understand past social-ecological dynamics. Reinstating these feedbacks in order to recouple the SES may ultimately create more sustainable systems on local scales. The RL-GL concept can uncover missing feedbacks through the characterization of SES dynamics along a spectrum of human resource dependence. Drawing on diverse qualitative and quantitative data sources, we classify SES dynamics throughout the history of Jamaican coral reefs along the RL-GL spectrum. We uncover missing feedbacks in red-loop and red-trap scenarios from around the year 600 until now. The Jamaican coral reef SES dynamics have moved between all four dynamic states described in the RL-GL concept: green loop, green trap, red loop and red trap. We then propose mechanisms to guide the current unsustainable red traps back to more sustainable green loops, involving mechanisms of seafood trade and ecological monitoring. By gradually moving away from seafood exports, Jamaica may be able to return to green-loop dynamics between the local society and their locally sourced seafood. We discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks of this proposed intervention and give indications of why an export ban may insure against future missing feedbacks and could prolong the sustainability of the Jamaican coral reef ecosystem. Our approach demonstrates how the RL-GL approach can uncover missing feedbacks in a coral reef SES, a way the concept has not been used before. We advocate for how the RL-GL concept in a feedback setting can be used to synthesize various types of data and to gain an understanding of past, present and future sustainability that can be applied in diverse social-ecological settings. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Keywords
coral reef management, historical, interventions, Jamaica, leverage points, mixed methods, regime shift, sustainability
National Category
Biological Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-195682 (URN)10.1002/pan3.10092 (DOI)000647696100007 ()
Available from: 2021-08-24 Created: 2021-08-24 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
Nyström, M., Jouffray, J.-B., Norström, A. V., Crona, B., Søgaard Jørgensen, P., Carpenter, S. R., . . . Folke, C. (2019). Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem. Nature, 575, 98-108
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Anatomy and resilience of the global production ecosystem
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2019 (English)In: Nature, ISSN 0028-0836, E-ISSN 1476-4687, Vol. 575, p. 98-108Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Much of the Earth's biosphere has been appropriated for the production of harvestable biomass in the form of food, fuel and fibre. Here we show that the simplification and intensification of these systems and their growing connection to international markets has yielded a global production ecosystem that is homogenous, highly connected and characterized by weakened internal feedbacks. We argue that these features converge to yield high and predictable supplies of biomass in the short term, but create conditions for novel and pervasive risks to emerge and interact in the longer term. Steering the global production ecosystem towards a sustainable trajectory will require the redirection of finance, increased transparency and traceability in supply chains, and the participation of a multitude of players, including integrated 'keystone actors' such as multinational corporations.

National Category
Environmental Sciences Agricultural Science, Forestry and Fisheries
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-176004 (URN)10.1038/s41586-019-1712-3 (DOI)000496159900047 ()31695208 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2019-11-14 Created: 2019-11-14 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
Keys, P. W., Galaz, V., Dyer, M., Matthews, N., Folke, C., Nyström, M. & Cornell, S. E. (2019). Anthropocene risk. Nature Sustainability, 2(8), 667-673
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Anthropocene risk
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2019 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 8, p. 667-673Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The potential consequences of cross-scale systemic environmental risks with global effects are increasing. We argue that current descriptions of globally connected systemic risk poorly capture the role of human-environment interactions. This creates a bias towards solutions that ignore the new realities of the Anthropocene. We develop an integrated concept of what we denote Anthropocene risk-that is, risks that: emerge from human-driven processes; interact with global social-ecological connectivity; and exhibit complex, cross-scale relationships. To illustrate this, we use four cases: moisture recycling teleconnections, aquaculture and stranded assets, biome migration in the Sahel, and sea-level rise and megacities. We discuss the implications of Anthropocene risk across several research frontiers, particularly in the context of supranational power, environmental and social externalities and possible future Anthropocene risk governance. We conclude that decision makers must navigate this new epoch with new tools, and that Anthropocene risk contributes conceptual guidance towards a more sustainable and just future.

National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-173008 (URN)10.1038/s41893-019-0327-x (DOI)000480430900015 ()
Available from: 2019-10-11 Created: 2019-10-11 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
Williams, G. J., Graham, N. A. J., Jouffray, J.-B., Norström, A. V., Nyström, M., Gove, J. M., . . . Wedding, L. M. (2019). Coral reef ecology in the Anthropocene. Functional Ecology, 33(6), 1014-1022
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Coral reef ecology in the Anthropocene
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2019 (English)In: Functional Ecology, ISSN 0269-8463, E-ISSN 1365-2435, Vol. 33, no 6, p. 1014-1022Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We are in the Anthropocene-an epoch where humans are the dominant force of planetary change. Ecosystems increasingly reflect rapid human-induced, socioeconomic and cultural selection rather than being a product of their surrounding natural biophysical setting. This poses the intriguing question: To what extent do existing ecological paradigms capture and explain the current ecological patterns and processes we observe? We argue that, although biophysical drivers still influence ecosystem structure and function at particular scales, their ability to offer predictive capacity over coupled social-ecological systems is increasingly compromised as we move further into the Anthropocene. Traditionally, the dynamics of coral reefs have been studied in response to their proximate drivers of change rather than their underlying socioeconomic and cultural drivers. We hypothesise this is limiting our ability to accurately predict spatial and temporal changes in coral reef ecosystem structure and function. We propose social-ecological macroecology as a novel approach within the field of coral reef ecology to a) identify the interactive effects of biophysical and socioeconomic and cultural drivers of coral reef ecosystems across spatial and temporal scales; b) test the robustness of existing coral reef paradigms; c) explore whether existing paradigms can be adapted to capture the dynamics of contemporary coral reefs; and d) if they cannot, develop novel coral reef social-ecological paradigms, where human dynamics are part of the paradigms rather than the drivers of them. Human socioeconomic and cultural processes must become embedded in coral reef ecological theory and practice as much as biophysical processes are today if we are to predict and manage these systems successfully in this era of rapid change. This necessary shift in our approach to coral reef ecology will be challenging and will require truly interdisciplinary collaborations between the natural and social sciences. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Keywords
Anthropocene, coral reef, ecological paradigms, macroecology, prediction, scale, social-ecological macroecology, social-ecological systems
National Category
Biological Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-171153 (URN)10.1111/1365-2435.13290 (DOI)000471073700007 ()
Available from: 2019-08-13 Created: 2019-08-13 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0003-3608-2426

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