The delivery of rigorous and unbiased evidence on the effects of interventions lay at the heart of the scientific method. Here we examine scientific papers evaluating agri-environment schemes, the principal instrument to mitigate farmland biodiversity declines worldwide. Despite previous warnings about rudimentary study designs in this field, we found that the majority of studies published between 2008 and 2017 still lack robust study designs to strictly evaluate intervention effects. Potential sources of bias that arise from the correlative nature are rarely mentioned, and results are still promoted by using a causal language. This lack of robust study designs likely results from poor integration of research and policy, while the erroneous use of causal language and an unwillingness to discuss bias may stem from publication pressures. We conclude that scientific reporting and discussion of study limitations in intervention research must improve and propose some practices toward this goal.

Apex predators may buffer bottom-up driven ecosystem change, as top-down suppression may dampen herbivore and mesopredator responses to increased resource availability. However, theory suggests that for this buffering capacity to be realized, the equilibrium abundance of apex predators must increase. This raises the question: will apex predators maintain herbivore/mesopredator limitation, if bottom-up change relaxes resource constraints? Here, we explore changes in mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) abundance over 220years in response to eradication and recovery of an apex predator (Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx), and changes in land use and climate which are linked to resource availability. A three-step approach was used. First, recent data from Finland and Sweden were modelled to estimate linear effects of lynx density, land use and winter temperature on fox density. Second, lynx density, land use and winter temperature was estimated in a 22650km(2) focal area in boreal and boreo-nemoral Sweden in the years 1830, 1920, 2010 and 2050. Third, the models and estimates were used to project historic and future fox densities in the focal area. Projected fox density was lowest in 1830 when lynx density was high, winters cold and the proportion of cropland low. Fox density peaked in 1920 due to lynx eradication, a mesopredator release boosted by favourable bottom-up changes - milder winters and cropland expansion. By 2010, lynx recolonization had reduced fox density, but it remained higher than in 1830, partly due to the bottom-up changes. Comparing 1830 to 2010, the contribution of top-down limitation decreased, while environment enrichment relaxed bottom-up limitation. Future scenarios indicated that by 2050, lynx density would have to increase by 79% to compensate for a projected climate-driven increase in fox density. We highlight that although top-down limitation in theory can buffer bottom-up change, this requires compensatory changes in apex predator abundance. Hence apex predator recolonization/recovery to historical levels would not be sufficient to compensate for widespread changes in climate and land use, which have relaxed the resource constraints for many herbivores and mesopredators. Variation in bottom-up conditions may also contribute to context dependence in apex predator effects.

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6 degrees C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

Trophic downgrading due to loss of apex consumers has been detected in many ecosystems. Loss of larger predators implies that medium-sized mesopredators rise to the status of apex predators which are limited bottom-up rather than top-down. Hence the density of medium-sized predators should be more strongly related to land cover in absence of larger predators. We investigate this hypothesis at a continental scale (Eurasia) for a medium-sized predator, the red fox Vulpes vulpes, in presence and absence of an apex predator, the Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx. We predicted that in absence of lynx, fox density should be positively associated with open land covers, as these could favour foxes due to high prey availability. Our results showed that fox abundance was independent of land cover in presence of lynx. However, in absence of lynx, fox density was positively but asymptotically related to cropland, while negatively related to grassland. Fox density was highest when cropland constituted approximately 30% of the landscape, likely reflecting an optimal composition of foraging and breeding habitat. Grassland was associated with low productivity, likely reflecting low prey availability. Thus, cropland is favourable for red fox, but only in absence of top-down limitation by lynx. We suggest that there are two ecosystem states in Eurasia, one northern where lynx is present as an apex predator, and one south-eastern where red fox assumes the apex predator position and its abundance is subsidised by anthropogenic land cover.

Humans affect ecosystems by changing species compositions, landscape and climate. This thesis aims to increase our understanding of anthropogenic effects on mesopredator abundance due to changes in apex predator status, landscape and climate. I show that in Eurasia the abundance of a mesopredator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), is limited top-down by the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) and bottom-up by winter severity. However, where lynx has been eradicated, fox abundance is instead related to bottom-factors such as cropland (paper I, II). Fox abundance was highest when croplands constituted 25% of the landscape (paper II). I also project red fox abundance in Sweden over the past 200 years and in future scenarios in relation to lynx density, land use and climate change. The projected fox abundance was highest in 1920, when lynx was eradicated and the proportion of cropland was 22%. In 2010, when lynx had recolonised, the projected fox abundance was lower than in 1920, but higher than in 1830. Future scenarios indicated that lynx abundance must increase in respond to climate change to keep fox at the same density as today. The results suggest a mesopredator release when lynx was eradicated, boosted by land use and climate change, and that changes in bottom-up factors can modify the relative strength of top-down factors (paper IV). From 1846-1922, lynx, wolverine (Gulo gulo) and grey wolf (Canis lupus) declined in Scandinavia due to persecution; however I show that the change in wolverine abundance was positively related to the changes in lynx and wolf abundance. This indicates that wolverine is subsidized by carrions from lynx and wolf kills rather than limited top-down by them (paper III). This thesis illustrates how mesopredator abundance is determined by a combination of top-down and bottom-up processes, and how anthropogenic impacts not only can change the structures of predator guilds, but also may modify top-down processes through changes in bottom-up factors.

Apex predators play an important role in shaping ecosystem structure. They may suppress smaller predators (mesopredators) but also subsidize scavengers via carrion provisioning. However, the importance of these interactions can change with ecosystem context. The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is a cold-adapted carnivore and facultative scavenger. It has a circumboreal distribution, where it could be either suppressed or subsidized by larger predators. In Scandinavia, the wolverine might interact with two larger predators, wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx), but human persecution decimated the populations in the nineteenth and early twentieth century. We investigated potential relationships between wolverine and the larger predators using hunting bag statistics from 15 Norwegian and Swedish counties in 1846-1922. Our best models showed a positive association between wolverine and lynx trends, taking ecological and human factors into account. There was also a positive association between year-to-year fluctuations in wolverine and wolf in the latter part of the study period. We suggest these associations could result from positive lynx-wolverine interactions through carrion provisioning, while wolves might both suppress wolverine and provide carrion with the net effect becoming positive when wolf density drops below a threshold. Wolverines could thus benefit from lynx presence and low-to-intermediate wolf densities.

Aim Climate change and loss of apex predators can affect ecosystem structure and function through modified limitation processes. We investigated, on a continental scale, whether mesopredator abundance is limited from the top down by large predators, as predicted by the mesopredator release hypothesis, or by bottom-up factors. The mesopredator in focus is the red fox Vulpes vulpes, a key predator in many ecosystems due to its strong effects on prey abundance. Location Europe and northern Asia. Methods Data on red fox density were compiled from published papers and reports. For each site, we collated presence-absence data on large carnivores (Lynx lynx, Canis lupus, Canisaureus) and remote sensing data for factors potentially related to bottom-up limitation (winter severity, summer temperature, human density, primary productivity, tree cover). The data were analysed through structural equation modelling. Results The presence of lynx had a direct negative effect on red foxes, suppressing fox abundance. Also winter severity had a negative effect on red fox abundance, and in Eurasia as a whole this effect was partially mediated through lynx. Within the lynx distribution range, winter severity was the only bottom-up factor significantly affecting red fox abundance. Outside the lynx distribution range, primary productivity, summer temperature and human density had a positive effect on red fox abundance. Main conclusions Our results show that apex predators can limit mesopredator abundance on a continental scale, thus supporting the mesopredator release hypothesis. Winter severity also affected red fox abundance, partially due to an interaction between lynx and winter conditions. On the continental scale a complex network of processes operates with varying effects depending on mediation processes. Our results imply that apex predators can have an important effect on ecosystem structure by limiting mesopredator abundance, and we suggest that apex predators may dampen increases in mesopredator abundance driven by global warming.