Even large inflows of oxygen-rich seawater to the Baltic Proper have in recent decades given only short-lived relief from oxygen deficiency below the halocline. We analyse long-term changes in oxygen deficiency, and calculate the “total oxygen debt” ΣOD, the oxygen required to oxidize the hydrogen sulphide (H₂S) and ammonium (NH₄) that builds up during stagnation periods. Since the early 1990s, oxygen below 65m has gradually decreased during successive stagnation periods, and the ΣΣOD has increased, with NH₄ more important than previously recognised. After the major inflow in 2014, the Baltic Proper ΣOD has reached its highest level so far. The gradual shift of the ΣOD to shallower sub-halocline waters in the western and northern basins has increased the risk of periodic coastal hypoxia and export of hypoxic water to the Bothnian Sea. The potential for inflows large enough to more than eliminate the ΣOD seems limited in the near term.

To improve the statistical power of detecting changes in contaminant concentrations over time, it is critical to reduce both the within- and between-year variability by adjusting the data for relevant confounding variables. In this study, we present a method for handling multiple confounding variables in contaminant monitoring. We evaluate the highly variable temporal trends of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in blue mussels from the central Baltic Sea during the period 1987-2016 (data from 25 years during this period) using various regression analyses. As potential explanatory variables related to PAH exposure, we use mussel size and retrospective analyses of mussel delta N-15 and delta C-13 (representing large scale biogeochemical changes as a result of e.g. eutrophication and terrestrial inputs). Environmental data from concurrent monitoring programmes (seasonal data on Chlorophyll-a, salinity and temperature in the water column, bioturbation of sediment dwelling fauna) were included as variables related to feeding conditions. The concentrations of high-molecular-weight and low-molecular-weight PAHs in blue mussel were statistically linked to different combinations of environmental variables. Adjustment using these predictors decreased the coefficient of variation in all 15 PAHs tested and improved the statistical power to detect changes. Moreover, the adjustment also resulted in a significant downward trend for fluoranthene that could not be detected initially. For another PAH, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, adjustment which reduced variation resulted in the loss of an apparent downward trend over time. Hence, our study highlights the importance of using auxilliary data to reduce variability caused by environmental factors with general effects on physiology when assessing contaminant time trends. Furthermore, it illustrates the importance of extensive and well designed monitoring programmes to provide relevant data.

Biodegradation by microorganisms is a useful tool that helps alleviating hydrocarbon pollution in nature. Microbes are more efficient in degradation under aerobic than anaerobic conditions, but the majority of sediment by volume is generally anoxic. Incubation experiments were conducted to study the biodegradation potential of naphthalene-a common polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH)-and the diversity of microbial communities in presence/absence of activated carbon (AC) under aerobic/anaerobic conditions. Radio-respirometry experiments with endogenous microorganisms indicated that degradation of naphthalene was strongly stimulated (96%) by the AC addition under anaerobic conditions. In aerobic conditions, however, AC had no effects on naphthalene biodegradation. Bioaugmentation tests with cultured microbial populations grown on naphthalene showed that AC further stimulated (92%) naphthalene degradation in anoxia. Analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequences implied that sediment amendment with AC increased microbial community diversity and changed community structure. Moreover, the relative abundance of Geobacter, Thiobacillus, Sulfuricurvum, and methanogenic archaea increased sharply after amendment with AC under anaerobic conditions. These results may be explained by the fact that AC particles promoted direct interspecies electron transfer (DIET) between microorganisms involved in PAH degradation pathways. We suggest that important ecosystem functions mediated by microbes-such as hydrocarbon degradation-can be induced and that AC enrichment strategies can be exploited for facilitating bioremediation of anoxic oil-contaminated sediments and soils.

Hypoxia and oxygen deficient zones are expanding worldwide. To properly manage this deterioration of the marine environment, it is important to identify the causes of oxygen declines and the influence of anthropogenic activities. Here, we provide a study aiming to explain the declining oxygen levels in the deep waters of the Bothnian Sea over the past 20 years by investigating data from environmental monitoring programmes. The observed decline in oxygen concentrations in deep waters was found to be primarily a consequence of water temperature increase and partly caused by an increase in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the seawater (R-Adj(2). = 0.83) as well as inflow from the adjacent sea basin. As none of the tested eutrophication-related predictors were significant according to a stepwise multiple regression, a regional increase in nutrient inputs to the area is unlikely to explain a significant portion of the oxygen decline. Based on the findings of this study, preventing the development of anoxia in the deep water of the Bothnian Sea is dependent on the large-scale measures taken to reduce climate change. In addition, the reduction of the nutrient load to the Baltic Proper is required to counteract the development of hypoxic and phosphate-rich water in the Baltic Proper, which can form deep water in the Bothnian Sea. The relative importance of these sources to oxygen consumption is difficult to determine from the available data, but the results clearly demonstrate the importance of climate related factors such as temperature, DOC and inflow from adjacent basins for the oxygen status of the sea.

The study showed that the open water of the Bothnian Sea (BS) is likely to have shifted from altering nitrogen and phosphorous limitations of the spring bloom to more nitrogen-limited conditions during the last 20 years. This is affected by the by inflow of phosphate-rich and oxygen-depleted water from depths near the halocline in the northern Baltic Proper, where severe oxygen conditions currently cause extreme phosphate concentrations in the deep water. The change in relation between inorganic nitrogen and phosphorous in the BS occurs first in the deep water and then progresses to the surface water. The change can potentially cause increased production in the BS and more frequent cyanobacterial blooms. There does not appear to be any immediate concern in the short-term perspective for the state of the BS, but a progression of the processes may lead to a more eutrophic state of the BS.