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Publications (10 of 11) Show all publications
van Vuuren, D. P., Zimm, C., Busch, S., Kriegler, E., Leininger, J., Messner, D., . . . Soergel, B. (2022). Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050. One Earth, 5(2), 142-156
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Defining a sustainable development target space for 2030 and 2050
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2022 (English)In: One Earth, ISSN 2590-3330, E-ISSN 2590-3322, Vol. 5, no 2, p. 142-156Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

With the establishment of the sustainable development goals (SDGs), countries worldwide agreed to a prosperous, socially inclusive, and environmentally sustainable future for all. This ambition, however, exposes a critical gap in science-based insights, namely on how to achieve the 17 SDGs simultaneously. Quantitative goal-seeking scenario studies could help explore the needed systems' transformations. This requires a clear definition of the "target space." The 169 targets and 232 indicators used for monitoring SDG implementation cannot be used for this; they are too many, too broad, unstructured, and sometimes not formulated quantitatively. Here, we propose a streamlined set of science-based indicators and associated target values that are quantifiable and actionable to make scenario analysis meaningful, relevant, and simple enough to be transparent and communicable. The 36 targets are based on the SDGs, existing multilateral agreements, literature, and expert assessment. They include 2050 as a longer-term reference point. This target space can guide researchers in developing new sustainable development pathways.

Keywords
sustainable development goals, scenario analysis, indicators
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Other Social Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-203511 (URN)10.1016/j.oneear.2022.01.003 (DOI)000760444900008 ()2-s2.0-85124597189 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2022-04-04 Created: 2022-04-04 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Warszawski, L., Kriegler, E., Lenton, T. M., Gaffney, O., Jacob, D., Klingenfeld, D., . . . Rockström, J. (2021). All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal. Environmental Research Letters, 16(6), Article ID 064037.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C: a scenario appraisal
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2021 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 16, no 6, article id 064037Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).

Keywords
climate change, emissions scenarios, 1.5 degrees C, negative emissions
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-195766 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec (DOI)000655713200001 ()
Available from: 2021-08-26 Created: 2021-08-26 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Gaffney, O., Williams, B., Townend, R., Thompson, S., Barthel, S. & Hahn, T. (2021). Global Commons Survey: Attitudes to transformation and planetary stewardship: Sweden (summary). New York: Global Commons Alliance
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Global Commons Survey: Attitudes to transformation and planetary stewardship: Sweden (summary)
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2021 (English)Report (Other (popular science, discussion, etc.))
Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
New York: Global Commons Alliance, 2021. p. 54
National Category
Environmental Sciences Peace and Conflict Studies Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-221434 (URN)
Available from: 2023-09-20 Created: 2023-09-20 Last updated: 2025-02-20Bibliographically approved
Folke, C., Polasky, S., Rockström, J., Galaz, V., Westley, F., Lamont, M., . . . Walker, B. H. (2021). Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere. Ambio, 50(4), 834-869
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Our future in the Anthropocene biosphere
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2021 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 50, no 4, p. 834-869Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed an interconnected and tightly coupled globalized world in rapid change. This article sets the scientific stage for understanding and responding to such change for global sustainability and resilient societies. We provide a systemic overview of the current situation where people and nature are dynamically intertwined and embedded in the biosphere, placing shocks and extreme events as part of this dynamic; humanity has become the major force in shaping the future of the Earth system as a whole; and the scale and pace of the human dimension have caused climate change, rapid loss of biodiversity, growing inequalities, and loss of resilience to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Taken together, human actions are challenging the biosphere foundation for a prosperous development of civilizations. The Anthropocene reality-of rising system-wide turbulence-calls for transformative change towards sustainable futures. Emerging technologies, social innovations, broader shifts in cultural repertoires, as well as a diverse portfolio of active stewardship of human actions in support of a resilient biosphere are highlighted as essential parts of such transformations.

Keywords
Anthropocene, Biosphere stewardship, Biodiversity, Climate, Resilience, Social-ecological
National Category
Environmental Engineering Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-192023 (URN)10.1007/s13280-021-01544-8 (DOI)000628733600006 ()33715097 (PubMedID)
Available from: 2021-04-13 Created: 2021-04-13 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Bhowmik, A. K., McCaffrey, M. S., Ruskey, A. ., Frischmann, C. & Gaffney, O. (2020). Powers of 10: Seeking 'sweet spots' for rapid climate and sustainability actions between individual and global scales [Letter to the editor]. Environmental Research Letters, 15(9), Article ID 094011.
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Powers of 10: Seeking 'sweet spots' for rapid climate and sustainability actions between individual and global scales
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2020 (English)In: Environmental Research Letters, E-ISSN 1748-9326, Vol. 15, no 9, article id 094011Article in journal, Letter (Other academic) Published
Abstract [en]

Achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement and related sustainability initiatives will require halving of global greenhouse gas emissions each decade from now on through to 2050, when net zero emissions should be achieved. To reach such significant reductions requires a rapid and strategic scaling of existing and emerging technologies and practices, coupled with economic and social transformations and novel governance solutions. Here we present a new 'Powers of 10' (P10) logarithmic framework and demonstrate its potential as a practical tool for decision makers and change agents at multiple scales to inform and catalyze engagement and actions, complementing and adding nuance to existing frameworks. P10 assists in identifying the suitable cohorts and cohort ranges for rapidly deploying climate and sustainability actions between a single individual and the globally projected ~ 10 billion persons by 2050. Applying a robust dataset of climate solutions from Project Drawdown's Plausible scenario that could cumulatively reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 1051 gigatons (Gt) against a reference scenario (2190 Gt) between 2020 and 2050, we seek to identify a 'sweet spot' where these climate and sustainability actions are suitably scaled. We suggest that prioritizing the analyzed climate actions between community and urban scales, where global and local converge, can help catalyze and enhance individual, household and local practices, and support national and international policies and finances for rapid sustainability transformations.

Keywords
agency, climate action, climate mitigation, paris agreement, scale, sustainability, Decision making, Greenhouse gases, Sustainable development, Change agents, Decision makers, Emerging technologies, Global scale, International policies, Multiple scale, Social transformation, Zero emission, Gas emissions, action plan, carbon emission, climate change, emission control, global change, power plant
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-189031 (URN)10.1088/1748-9326/ab9ed0 (DOI)2-s2.0-85090419943 (Scopus ID)
Available from: 2021-01-15 Created: 2021-01-15 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Norström, A., Cvitanovic, C., Löf, M. F., West, S., Wyborn, C., Balvanera, P., . . . Österblom, H. (2020). Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research. Nature Sustainability, 3(3), 182-190
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Principles for knowledge co-production in sustainability research
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2020 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, E-ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 3, no 3, p. 182-190Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Research practice, funding agencies and global science organizations suggest that research aimed at addressing sustainability challenges is most effective when 'co-produced' by academics and non-academics. Co-production promises to address the complex nature of contemporary sustainability challenges better than more traditional scientific approaches. But definitions of knowledge co-production are diverse and often contradictory. We propose a set of four general principles that underlie high-quality knowledge co-production for sustainability research. Using these principles, we offer practical guidance on how to engage in meaningful co-productive practices, and how to evaluate their quality and success. Research addressing sustainability issues is more effective if 'co-produced' by academics and non-academics, but definitions of co-production vary. This Perspective presents four knowledge co-production principles for sustainability research and guides on how to engage in co-productive practices.

National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-178804 (URN)10.1038/s41893-019-0448-2 (DOI)000508322400004 ()
Available from: 2020-02-17 Created: 2020-02-17 Last updated: 2025-01-31Bibliographically approved
Elmqvist, T., Andersson, E., Frantzeskaki, N., McPhearson, T., Olsson, P., Gaffney, O., . . . Folke, C. (2019). Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century. Nature Sustainability, 2(4), 267-273
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century
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2019 (English)In: Nature Sustainability, ISSN 2398-9629, Vol. 2, no 4, p. 267-273Article, review/survey (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We have entered the urban century and addressing a broad suite of sustainability challenges in urban areas is increasingly key for our chances to transform the entire planet towards sustainability. For example, cities are responsible for 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions and, at the same time, 90% of urban areas are situated on coastlines, making the majority of the world's population increasingly vulnerable to climate change. While urbanization accelerates, meeting the challenges will require unprecedented transformative solutions for sustainability with a careful consideration of resilience in their implementation. However, global and local policy processes often use vague or narrow definitions of the concepts of 'urban sustainability' and 'urban resilience', leading to deep confusion, particularly in instances when the two are used interchangeably. Confusion and vagueness slow down needed transformation processes, since resilience can be undesirable and many sustainability goals contrast, or even challenge efforts to improve resilience. Here, we propose a new framework that resolves current contradictions and tensions; a framework that we believe will significantly help urban policy and implementation processes in addressing new challenges and contributing to global sustainability in the urban century.

National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-168652 (URN)10.1038/s41893-019-0250-1 (DOI)000463925700012 ()
Available from: 2019-05-03 Created: 2019-05-03 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Gaffney, O. (2017). Anthropocene now. New scientist (1971), 234(3122), 24-25
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Anthropocene now
2017 (English)In: New scientist (1971), ISSN 0262-4079, Vol. 234, no 3122, p. 24-25Article in journal, Editorial material (Other academic) Published
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-151686 (URN)10.1016/S0262-4079(17)30779-0 (DOI)000399959300018 ()
Available from: 2018-01-17 Created: 2018-01-17 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Stafford-Smith, M., Griggs, D., Gaffney, O., Ullah, F., Reyers, B., Kanie, N., . . . O'Connell, D. (2017). Integration: the key to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals. Sustainability Science, 12(6), 911-919
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Integration: the key to implementing the Sustainable Development Goals
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2017 (English)In: Sustainability Science, ISSN 1862-4065, E-ISSN 1862-4057, Vol. 12, no 6, p. 911-919Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

On 25 September, 2015, world leaders met at the United Nations in New York, where they adopted the Sustainable Development Goals. These 17 goals and 169 targets set out an agenda for sustainable development for all nations that embraces economic growth, social inclusion, and environmental protection. Now, the agenda moves from agreeing the goals to implementing and ultimately achieving them. Across the goals, 42 targets focus on means of implementation, and the final goal, Goal 17, is entirely devoted to means of implementation. However, these implementation targets are largely silent about interlinkages and interdependencies among goals. This leaves open the possibility of perverse outcomes and unrealised synergies. We demonstrate that there must be greater attention on interlinkages in three areas: across sectors (e.g., finance, agriculture, energy, and transport), across societal actors (local authorities, government agencies, private sector, and civil society), and between and among low, medium and high income countries. Drawing on a global sustainability science and practice perspective, we provide seven recommendations to improve these interlinkages at both global and national levels, in relation to the UN's categories of means of implementation: finance, technology, capacity building, trade, policy coherence, partnerships, and, finally, data, monitoring and accountability.

Keywords
Sustainable Development Goals, Means of implementation, Integration, Trade-offs and synergies, Governance, Human well-being
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-150009 (URN)10.1007/s11625-016-0383-3 (DOI)000415331600011 ()
Available from: 2017-12-19 Created: 2017-12-19 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Gaffney, O. (2017). Putin's real prize?. New scientist (1971), 233(3118), 24-25
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Putin's real prize?
2017 (English)In: New scientist (1971), ISSN 0262-4079, Vol. 233, no 3118, p. 24-25Article in journal, Editorial material (Other academic) Published
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-151687 (URN)10.1016/S0262-4079(17)30573-0 (DOI)000397453400025 ()
Available from: 2018-01-17 Created: 2018-01-17 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved
Organisations
Identifiers
ORCID iD: ORCID iD iconorcid.org/0000-0001-6244-991x

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