Labor abuse on fishing vessels and illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing violate human rights, jeopardize food security, and deprive governments of revenues. We applied a multi-method approach, combining new empirical data with satellite information on fishing activities and vessel characteristics to map risks of labor abuse and IUU fishing, understand their relationships, and identify major drivers. Port risks were globally pervasive and often coupled, with 57% of assessed ports associated with labor abuse or IUU fishing. For trips ending in assessed ports, 82% were linked to labor abuse or IUU fishing risks. At-sea risk areas were primarily driven by fishing vessel flags linked to poor control of corruption by the flag state, high ownership by countries other than the flag state, and Chinese-flagged vessels. Transshipment risk areas were related to the gear type of fishing vessels engaged in potential transshipment and carrier vessel flags. Measures at port offer promise for mitigating risks, through the Port State Measures Agreement for IUU fishing, and ensuring sufficient vessel time at port to detect and respond to labor abuse. Our results highlight the need for coordinated action across actors to avoid risk displacement and make progress towards eliminating these socially, environmentally and economically unsustainable practices.

The biosphere crisis requires changes to existing business practices. We ask how corporations can become sustainability leaders, when constrained by multiple barriers to collaboration for biosphere stewardship. We describe how scientists motivated, inspired and engaged with ten of the world’s largest seafood companies, in a collaborative process aimed to enable science-based and systemic transformations (2015–2021). CEOs faced multiple industry crises in 2015 that incentivized novel approaches. New scientific insights, an invitation to collaborate, and a bold vision of transformative change towards ocean stewardship, created new opportunities and direction. Co-creation of solutions resulted in new knowledge and trust, a joint agenda for action, new capacities, international recognition, formalization of an organization, increased policy influence, time-bound goals, and convergence of corporate change. Independently funded scientists helped remove barriers to cooperation, provided means for reflection, and guided corporate strategies and actions toward ocean stewardship. By 2021, multiple individuals exercised leadership and the initiative had transitioned from preliminary and uncomfortable conversations, to a dynamic, operational organization, with capacity to perform global leadership in the seafood industry. Mobilizing transformational agency through learning, collaboration, and innovation represents a cultural evolution with potential to redirect and accelerate corporate action, to the benefit of business, people and the planet. 

Recent studies suggest that the pervasive impacts on global fishery resources caused by stressors such as overfishing and climate change could dramatically increase the likelihood of fishery conflict. However, existing projections do not consider wider economic, social, or political trends when assessing the likelihood of, and influences on, future conflict trajectories. In this paper, we build four future fishery conflict scenarios by considering multiple fishery conflict drivers derived from an expert workshop, a longitudinal database of international fishery conflict, secondary data on conflict driver trends, and regional expert reviews. The scenarios take place between the years 2030 and 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (scramble for the Atlantic''), the East China Sea (the remodeled empire''), the coast of West Africa (oceanic decolonization''), and the Arctic (polar renaissance''). The scenarios explore the implications of ongoing trends in conflict-prone regions of the world and function as accessible, science-based communication tools that can help foster anticipatory governance capacity in the pursuit of future ocean security.

Marine capture fishery resources are declining, and demand for them is rising. These trends are suspected to incite conflict, but their effects have not been quantitatively examined. We applied a multi-model ensemble approach to a global database of international fishery conflicts between 1974 and 2016 to test the supply-induced scarcity hypothesis (diminishing supplies of fishery resources increase fisheries conflict), the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis (rising demand for fishery resources increases fisheries conflict), and three alternative political and economic hypotheses. While no single indicator was able to fully explain international conflict over fishery resources, we found a positive relationship between increased conflict over fishery resources and higher levels of per capita GDP for the period 1975-1996. For the period 1997-2016, we found evidence supporting the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis, and the notion that an increase in supply of fishery resources is linked to an increase in conflict occurrence. By identifying significant predictors of international fisheries conflict, our analysis provides useful information for policy approaches for conflict anticipation and management.

Are international conflicts over fishery resources a growing security concern? High-profile incidences of conflict, diminishing fishery resources and climate impacts on marine systems have made the international community increasingly wary of fisheries conflict. However, we lack knowledge on conflict incidences over time, as well as the contexts in which the conflicts occur, to assess if fisheries conflict is a growing security threat. To fill that gap, this thesis aims to provide a more detailed understanding of the temporal and regional patterns of international fisheries conflict – more specifically its frequency, nature, regional occurrence over time, and its drivers. Gaining insight into these patterns can aid the development of conflict management strategies and implementation of policies to ensure future ocean security.

In Paper I, I present a review of the literature on fisheries conflict, aimed at assessing to what degree existing studies have incorporated ideas from complexity and social-ecological systems theory. Making use of an initial scan of 803 relevant papers, and the subsequent intensive review of 31 fisheries conflict studies, I identify areas within the literature that would benefit from further development. First, precise definitions of fisheries conflict are lacking. Second, there is a narrowness in the methods used to assess the drivers of fisheries conflict, as the literature is largely populated by single cases of conflict assessed in a qualitative manner. Third, nonlinear and dynamic feedbacks, multiple causes, effects and intervening variables are often not explicitly recognized. Fourth, there is room for a more widespread extension of higher order concepts and associated terminology to describe complex system interactions, such as ‘feedbacks’ or ‘adaptive capacity’.

In Paper II, I present findings on the characteristics of international fisheries conflict over time drawing on a global and longitudinal database I developed that logs international fisheries conflict between 1974 and 2016. The analysis shows that the frequency of fisheries conflict increased over this time period, with substantial variation in both the type of conflict and the countries involved. Before 2000, fisheries conflict involved mostly North American and European countries fighting over specific species. Since then, conflict has primarily involved Asian countries clashing over multiple species linked to illegal fishing practices. I also consider potential response strategies for the different conflict types uncovered.

In Paper III, I use a multi-model approach to test for the supply-induced scarcity hypothesis (diminishing supplies of resources increases conflict) and the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis (rising demand for resources increases conflict) on international fishery conflict data. Three alternative political and economic explanatory pathways are also tested. Overall, I find that no single indicator is able to fully explain international conflict over fishery resources. For the period 1975 to 1996, I find a relationship between conflict over fishery resources and higher levels of GDP per capita. For the period 1997 to 2016, findings support the demand-induced scarcity hypothesis, with analyses also indicating that an increase in supply of fishery resources is linked to an increase in conflict occurrence.

Lastly, in Paper IV, I present four future fisheries conflict scenarios. The scenarios integrate longitudinal evidence on international fisheries conflict and expert data on fishery conflict trends and drivers. The scenarios take place in the years 2030 to 2060 in the North-East Atlantic (“Scramble for the Atlantic”), the East China Sea (“The Remodeled Empire”), the coast of West Africa (“Oceanic Decolonization”), and the Arctic (“Polar Renaissance”). The aim is to illuminate how different decisions made today can lead to dramatically diverging future paths, and to inspire policy makers to work with exploratory scenario processes to build anticipatory capacity to support future ocean security.

International fisheries conflict can cause crises by threatening maritime security, ecosystems and livelihoods. In a highly connected world, the possibility for localized fisheries conflict to escalate into 'systemic risks', where risk in one domain such as food supply can increase risk in another domain such as maritime security and international relations, is growing. However, countries often choose hard-line actions rather than strategies initiating or repairing fisheries cooperation. To design, prioritize and implement more effective responses, a deeper understanding of the temporal and regional patterns of fisheries conflict is needed. Here, we present novel findings from the first global and longitudinal database of international fisheries conflict between 1974-2016. We explore the characteristics of conflict over time and develop a typology of eight distinct types of conflict. Fisheries conflict increased between 1974 and 2016, with substantial variation in both the type of conflict and the countries involved. Before 2000, fisheries conflict involved mostly North American and European countries fighting over specific species. Since then, conflict primarily involved Asian countries clashing over multiple and nonspecified species linked to illegal fishing practices. We use this empirical data to consider potential response strategies that can foster maritime security and thereby contribute to broader societal stability.

International conflict over fishery resources is becoming a growing security concern. As both incidences of conflict as well as their environmental drivers are expected to increase, the international community has become increasingly wary of this potential future security threat. To better assess the extent to which international fisheries conflict should be considered a security threat, as well as to design and implement more effective governance responses, this thesis aims to provide a more detailed understanding of its temporal and regional patterns - that is, its frequency, nature and regional occurrence. A more nuanced insight into the patterns of fisheries conflict can aid the development of conflict management strategies that ensure environmental sustainability and maritime security.

Conflict over marine fishery resources is a growing security concern. Experts expect that global changes in our climate, food systems and oceans may spark or exacerbate resource conflicts. An initial scan of 803 relevant papers and subsequent intensive review of 31 fisheries conflict studies, focused on subnational and international conflicts, suggests that four substantial scientific gaps need addressing to improve our understanding of the nature and drivers of fisheries conflict. First, fisheries conflict and levels of conflict intensity are not precisely defined. Second, complex adaptive systems thinking is underutilized but has the potential to produce more realistic causal models of fishery conflict. Third, comparative large-scale data and suitably integrative methodologies are lacking, underscoring the need for a standardized and comparable database of fisheries conflict cases to aid extrapolation beyond single case-studies. Fourth, there is room for a more widespread application of higher order concepts and associated terminology. Importantly, the four gaps highlight the homogenized nature of current methodological and theoretical approaches to understanding fishery conflict, which potentially presents us with an oversimplified understanding of these conflicts. A more nuanced understanding of the complex and dynamic nature of fishery conflict and its causes is not only scientifically critical, but increasingly relevant for policymakers and practitioners in this turbulent world.

Future impacts of climate change on marine fisheries have the potential to negatively influence a wide range of socio-economic factors, including food security, livelihoods and public health, and even to reshape development trajectories and spark transboundary conflict. Yet there is considerable variability in the vulnerability of countries around the world to these effects. We calculate a vulnerability index of 147 countries by drawing on the most recent data related to the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries. Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework for vulnerability, we first construct aggregate indices for exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity using 12 primary variables. Seven out of the ten most vulnerable countries on the resulting index are Small Island Developing States, and the top quartile of the index includes countries located in Africa (17), Asia (7), North America and the Caribbean (4) and Oceania (8). More than 87% of least developed countries are found within the top half of the vulnerability index, while the bottom half includes all but one of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development member states. This is primarily due to the tremendous variation in countries' adaptive capacity, as no such trends are evident from the exposure or sensitivity indices. A negative correlation exists between vulnerability and per capita carbon emissions, and the clustering of states at different levels of development across the vulnerability index suggests growing barriers to meeting global commitments to reducing inequality, promoting human well-being and ensuring sustainable cities and communities. The index provides a useful tool for prioritizing the allocation of climate finance, as well as activities aimed at capacity building and the transfer of marine technology.

A recurrent critique of the proposition of a causal relation between environmental change and social conflict is that it fails to account for the complexities and dynamics of processes of social-ecological change. In this article, we open the black box of contextual factors that influence the causal pathway from environmental change to social conflict. Firstly, we argue for the consideration of three social factors that influence that pathway: (a) institutions, (b) power, and (c) knowledge. Taking a deductive approach, we ascertain their causal importance in the case of the mackerel dispute, an interstate conflict that unfolded after the abrupt and rapid change in distribution of the northeast Atlantic mackerel stock after 2007. We analyze the historical development of the mackerel dispute through process tracing and demonstrate the importance and causal role of the three factors. Secondly, based on our assessment, we argue to increase the diversity of the scope conditions relevant for the environmental change-social conflict nexus. We propose to consider a wider variety of conflicts as outcome of environmental change, high-income regions as an arena for those conflicts, and a wider variety of environmental change, such as alterations in abundance in the context of climate change. Lastly, we discuss how future research on this topic can handle the wider scope conditions and greater case variability.