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The role of large-scale atmospheric flow and Rossby wave breaking in the evolution of extreme windstorms over Europe
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU).
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-5507-9209
2012 (engelsk)Inngår i: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 39, s. L21708-Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

We investigate the relationship between large-scale atmospheric flow and the evolution of the most extreme windstorms affecting Western Continental Europe. The 25 most destructive Western Continental European wind storms are selected from a 43-year climatology. 22 of these storms are grouped as having a similar trajectory and evolution. We show that these storms typically occur during particularly strong and persistent positive NAO anomalies which peak approximately 2 days before the storms' peak intensity; the NAO pattern then shifts eastward to a position over the European continent when the storms strike Europe. A temporal composite of potential temperature on the 2-PVU surface suggests that this NAO shift is the result of simultaneous cyclonic and anticyclonic wave breaking penetrating further to the east than during a typical high-NAO event. This creates an extremely intense, zonally-orientated jet over the North Atlantic whose baroclinicity favours explosive intensification of storms while steering them into Western Continental Europe.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2012. Vol. 39, s. L21708-
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
atmosfärvetenskap och oceanografi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-83809DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053408ISI: 000310963000001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-83809DiVA, id: diva2:577133
Merknad

AuthorCount:2;

Tilgjengelig fra: 2012-12-14 Laget: 2012-12-14 Sist oppdatert: 2022-02-24bibliografisk kontrollert
Inngår i avhandling
1. Extreme Storms in the North Atlantic and Europe
Åpne denne publikasjonen i ny fane eller vindu >>Extreme Storms in the North Atlantic and Europe
2013 (engelsk)Doktoravhandling, med artikler (Annet vitenskapelig)
Abstract [en]

A study of the most extreme cyclones affecting the North Atlantic and Europe is presented with particular focus on extreme windstorms over the densely populated area of Western Europe, whose associated high surface wind speeds are capable of causing extensive structural damage and occasionally a loss of life.

A novel cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is presented which explicitly recognises ‘multi-centre cyclones’ (MCCs), defined as cyclonic systems which contain two or three sea-level pressure minima. The method also recognises cyclone merging and splitting events and reduces the number of tracks which would have been spuriously split at some point in their life-cycle. MCC frequency is shown to increase with storm intensity, with approximately 60% of the top 30% of cyclones constituting MCCs at some point in their life-cycle.

The first findings of the IMILAST (Inter-comparison of MId-LAtitudeSTorm diagnostics) project, an intercomparison study of 15 cyclone identification and tracking algorithms, are presented. Each method was applied to a 20 year period of the ERA-Interim dataset and results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life-cycle and track location were compared across the methods.

The relationship between the evolution of the most intense wind storms affecting Western Europe (Britain and Ireland, Scandinavia, and Western Continental Europe) and the large-scale atmospheric flow is investigated using an automated cyclone tracking algorithm and an objective measure of cyclone destructiveness applied to ERA40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data as well as EC-Earth model output data at two different spatial resolutions. Composite analyses reveal a clear connection between the precise location of upper-level anti-cyclonic wave breaking and cold air intrusion from the north and the position and orientation of an intense jet; this, in turn, plays a crucial role in determining into which region a developing extreme storm will be steered.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
Stockholm: Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, 2013. s. 44
HSV kategori
Forskningsprogram
atmosfärvetenskap och oceanografi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-86533 (URN)978-91-7447-630-9 (ISBN)
Disputas
2013-02-05, Nordenskiöldsalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 12, Stockholm, 10:00 (engelsk)
Opponent
Veileder
Merknad

At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 2: Epub ahead of print. Paper 4: Manuscript.

 

Tilgjengelig fra: 2013-01-15 Laget: 2013-01-14 Sist oppdatert: 2022-02-24bibliografisk kontrollert

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