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Judgment Analysis in the Medical Domain: Making a Fair Comparison Between Logistic Regression and Fast & Frugal Models
Stockholms universitet, Samhällsvetenskapliga fakulteten, Psykologiska institutionen.
Center for Family and Community Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.
Center for Family and Community Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.
Center for Family and Community Medicine, Karolinska Institutet.
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(Engelska)Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Submitted
Abstract [en]

Using participant data from the medical domain, the robustness of logistic regression (LR) with different cue inclusion levels and two fast and frugal (F&F) models in terms of predictive accuracy and frugality were tested. Two data sets based on judgments of verbally described patients were used: Heart failure (66 analysts), and Hyperlipidemia (38 analysts). In both data sets, when the models were cross-validated, there was a significant decrease in predictive accuracy for all models, especially when all cues were used in LR. The other models had about equal predictive accuracy, also when comparisons were made with actual diagnoses, with a slight advantage for LR in the Heart failure study. LR using the 5% inclusion level was more frugal than F&F. These results emphasize the importance of using cross-validation and of choosing the proper significance levels for cue inclusion and when comparing different judgment models.

Nyckelord [en]
Logistic regression, fast and frugal, cross-validation, fit, prediction, frugality
Nationell ämneskategori
Psykologi (exklusive tillämpad psykologi)
Forskningsämne
psykologi
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-57071OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-57071DiVA, id: diva2:414262
Tillgänglig från: 2011-05-02 Skapad: 2011-05-02 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-02-24Bibliografiskt granskad
Ingår i avhandling
1. Decision Strategies: Something Old, Something New, and Something Borrowed
Öppna denna publikation i ny flik eller fönster >>Decision Strategies: Something Old, Something New, and Something Borrowed
2011 (Engelska)Doktorsavhandling, sammanläggning (Övrigt vetenskapligt)
Abstract [en]

In this thesis, some old decision strategies are investigated and a new one that furthers our understanding of how decisions are made is introduced. Three studies are presented. In Study I and II, strategies are investigated in terms of inferences and in Study III, strategies are investigated in terms of preferences. Inferences refer to decisions regarding facts, e.g., whether a patient has a heart disease or not. Preferences refer to decision makers’ personal preferences between different choice alternatives, e.g., which flat out of many to choose. In all three studies, both non-compensatory strategies and compensatory strategies were investigated. In compensatory strategies, a high value in one attribute cannot compensate for a low value in another, while in non-compensatory strategies such compensation is possible. Results from Study I showed that both compensatory (logistic regression) and non-compensatory (fast and frugal) strategies make inferences equally well, but logistic regression strategies are more frugal (i.e., use fewer cues) than the fast and frugal strategies. Study II showed that the results were independent of the degree of expertise. The good inferential ability of both non-compensatory and compensatory strategies suggests there might be room for a strategy that can combine the strengths of the two. Study III introduces such a strategy, the Concordant-ranks (CR) strategy. Results from Study III showed that choices and attractiveness evaluations followed this new strategy. This strategy dictates a choice of an alternative with concordant ranks between attribute values and attribute weights when alternatives are about equally attractive. CR also serves as a proxy for finding the alternative with the shortest distance to an ideal. The CR strategy combines the computational simplicity of non-compensatory strategies with the superior information integration ability of compensatory strategies.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
Stockholm: Department of Psychology, Stockholms University, 2011. s. 80
Nyckelord
Decision strategies, inference, preference, compensatory, non-compensatory
Nationell ämneskategori
Psykologi
Forskningsämne
psykologi
Identifikatorer
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-57174 (URN)978-91-7447-294-3 (ISBN)
Disputation
2011-06-03, David Magnussonsalen (U31), hus 8, Frescati Hagväg 8, Stockholm, 10:00 (Engelska)
Opponent
Handledare
Anmärkning
At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 1: Submitted. Paper 2: Submitted.Tillgänglig från: 2011-05-12 Skapad: 2011-05-03 Senast uppdaterad: 2022-02-24Bibliografiskt granskad

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Kerimi, NedaMontgomery, Henry

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Kerimi, NedaMontgomery, Henry
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Psykologiska institutionen
Psykologi (exklusive tillämpad psykologi)

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