Ändra sökning
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Modelling the epidemiological impact of rotavirus vaccination in Germany - A Bayesian approach
Visa övriga samt affilieringar
2014 (Engelska)Ingår i: Vaccine, ISSN 0264-410X, E-ISSN 1873-2518, Vol. 32, nr 40, s. 5250-5257Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

Background: Rotavirus (RV) infection is the primary cause of severe gastroenteritis in children aged <5 years in Germany and worldwide. In 2013 the German Standing Committee on Vaccination (STIKO) developed a national recommendation for routine RV-immunization of infants. To support informed decision-making we predicted the epidemiological impact of routine RV-vaccination in Germany using statistical modelling. Methods: We developed a population-based model for the dynamic transmission of RV-infection in a vaccination setting. Using data from the communicable disease reporting system and survey records on the vaccination coverage from the eastern federal states, where the vaccine was widely used before recommended at national level, we first estimated RV vaccine effectiveness (VE) within a Bayesian framework utilizing adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference. The calibrated model was then used to compute the predictive distribution of RV-incidence after achieving high vaccination coverage with the introduction of routine vaccination. Results: Our model estimated that RV-vaccination provides high protection against symptomatic RV-infection (VE=96%; 95% credibility interval (CI): 91-99%) that remains at its maximum level for three years (95% CI: 1.43-5.80 years) and is fully waned after twelve years. At population level, routine vaccination at 90% coverage is predicted to reduce symptomatic RV-incidence among children aged <5 years by 84% (95% prediction interval (PI): 71-90%) including a 2.5% decrease due to herd protection. Ten years after vaccine introduction an increase in RV incidences of 12% (95% PI: -16 to 85%) among persons aged 5-59 years and 14% (95% PI: -6 to 109%) within the age-group >60 years was predicted. Conclusion: Routine infant RV-vaccination is predicted to considerably reduce RV-incidence in Germany among children <5 years. Outwork generated estimates of RV VE in the field and predicted the population-level impact, while adequately addressing the role of model and prediction uncertainty when making statements about the future.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2014. Vol. 32, nr 40, s. 5250-5257
Nyckelord [en]
Rotavirus, Transmission modelling, Routine vaccination, Vaccine effectiveness, Epidemiological impact, Bayesian inference
Nationell ämneskategori
Immunologi inom det medicinska området Matematik
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-108538DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.06.090ISI: 000342269800016OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-108538DiVA, id: diva2:766932
Anmärkning

AuthorCount:5;

Tillgänglig från: 2014-11-28 Skapad: 2014-10-29 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-12-04Bibliografiskt granskad

Open Access i DiVA

Fulltext saknas i DiVA

Övriga länkar

Förlagets fulltext

Sök vidare i DiVA

Av författaren/redaktören
Höhle, Michael
Av organisationen
Matematiska institutionen
I samma tidskrift
Vaccine
Immunologi inom det medicinska områdetMatematik

Sök vidare utanför DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetricpoäng

doi
urn-nbn
Totalt: 41 träffar
RefereraExporteraLänk till posten
Permanent länk

Direktlänk
Referera
Referensformat
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Annat format
Fler format
Språk
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Annat språk
Fler språk
Utmatningsformat
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf