This study presents new time series data for private debt in Sweden in 1900–2013, including credit from banks, mortgage institutes and credit companies. The reconstruction of the data is a scientific task by itself, and is complicated by changed definitions, breaks in the series, and the need for occasional interpolation and cross-reference of sources. The obtained data reveal both qualitative and quantitative changes in the structure of private debt in Sweden during the period. One finding is a pattern where the era starting with the deregulation of the credit market in 1985 resembles the era preceding World War Two. Both periods experienced a high level of private debt-to-GDP ratio as well as severe financial crises. In a first application of the data, the hypothesis of rising private debt in the years before a financial crisis is explored through logit regression. The findings are in line with international research, and suggest that higher lending, especially from banks, might aggravate the risk of financial crisis.

This study demonstrates a long-run relationship between inequality and the bank debt to GDP ratio in Sweden in 1919–2012. The findings suggest that much of the impact of the top income share on the debt ratio comes from changes in the profit share. Earlier research claims that the rich, via the banks, have lent their savings to the poor as a substitute for wage gains, but this description seems ill-suited for Sweden. An alternative explanation is that banks consider profits to be an indicator of the safety of a loan. This is more in line with the study’s findings.

This investigation concerns the nexus between inequality, asset markets, and private debt, in the case of Sweden in 1900-2013. The evidence of the study suggests that financial wealth in stocks relative to GDP is an intermediary variable between the profit share and bank debt to GDP ratio. Though the study finds that there is a positive long run relationship between the profit share and the bank debt ratio in the case at hand, the inclusion of the stock market wealth ratio changes the sign of the profit share coefficient. Even so, there is also a positive long run relationship between the profit share and stock market wealth relative to GDP. This means that changes in the profit share may still have a positive impact on credit formation, though indirectly via the stock market. The study finds some evidence that collateral in the form of housing wealth is another determinant of the debt level.

This study explores the long run relationship between the wage share in the private sector and the extent of the Swedish welfare state in 1900-2013. It uses a novel approach where government intervention in the economy is broken down into three different aspects: Government consumption, government investment and residential construction. The construction of dwellings may seem questionable at first glance, since it to a large degree has been carried out by private interests. The fact that housing policy has been an important part of welfare policy through several channels motivates inclusion of the variable however. Government investment, mainly in infrastructure, and house construction as factors influencing the functional income distribution has been neglected in previous research. Through the use of single-equation cointegration technique, the study finds a positive and robust long run relationship between the private wage share and all three welfare variables.