Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Estimation of the maximum annual number of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using climate models
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 82018 (English)In: Science Advances, ISSN 0036-8156, E-ISSN 2375-2548, Vol. 4, no 8, article id eaat6509Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Using millennia-long climate model simulations, favorable environments for tropical cyclone formation are examined to determine whether the record number of tropical cyclones in the 2005 Atlantic season is close to the maximum possible number for the present climate of that basin. By estimating both the mean number of tropical cyclones and their possible year-to-year random variability, we find that the likelihood that the maximum number of storms in the Atlantic could be greater than the number of events observed during the 2005 season is less than 3.5%. Using a less restrictive comparison between simulated and observed climate with the internal variability accounted for, this probability increases to 9%; however, the estimated maximum possible number of tropical cyclones does not greatly exceed the 2005 total. Hence, the 2005 season can be used as a risk management benchmark for the maximum possible number of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 4, no 8, article id eaat6509
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-160136DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aat6509ISI: 000443498100069PubMedID: 30140742OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-160136DiVA, id: diva2:1248931
Available from: 2018-09-17 Created: 2018-09-17 Last updated: 2018-09-17Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full textPubMed

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Walsh, Kevin J. E.Caron, Louis-PhilippeKing, MalcolmZhang, Qiong
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography
In the same journal
Science Advances
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
pubmed
urn-nbn
Total: 11 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf