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Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Landfall Using ECMWF's System 4
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU). Third Swedish National Pension Fund, Sweden.
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-9591-124X
Rekke forfattare: 42019 (engelsk)Inngår i: Weather and forecasting, ISSN 0882-8156, E-ISSN 1520-0434, Vol. 34, nr 5, s. 1239-1255Artikkel i tidsskrift (Fagfellevurdert) Published
Abstract [en]

A method has been developed to forecast seasonal landfall risk using ensembles of cyclone tracks generated by ECMWF's seasonal forecast system 4. The method has been applied to analyze and retrospectively forecast the landfall risk along the North American coast. The main result is that the method can be used to forecast landfall for some parts of the coast, but the skill is lower than for basinwide forecasts of activity. The rank correlations between forecasts issued on 1 May and observations are 0.6 for basinwide tropical cyclone number and 0.5 for landfall anywhere along the coast. When the forecast period is limited to the peak of the hurricane season, the landfall correlation increases to 0.6. Moreover, when the forecast issue date is pushed forward to 1 August, basinwide tropical cyclone and hurricane correlations increase to 0.7 and 0.8, respectively, whereas landfall correlations improve less. The quality of the forecasts is in line with that obtained by others.

sted, utgiver, år, opplag, sider
2019. Vol. 34, nr 5, s. 1239-1255
Emneord [en]
Hurricanes, Statistical techniques, Ensembles, Forecasting techniques, Seasonal forecasting
HSV kategori
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-172953DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-18-0032.1ISI: 000483558700001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-172953DiVA, id: diva2:1352270
Tilgjengelig fra: 2019-09-18 Laget: 2019-09-18 Sist oppdatert: 2019-12-12bibliografisk kontrollert

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