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Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-2688-2788
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre. University of Helsinki, Finland.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1048-8452
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Number of Authors: 72019 (English)In: Ambio, ISSN 0044-7447, E-ISSN 1654-7209, Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1337-1349Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 48, no 11, p. 1337-1349
Keywords [en]
Climate change, Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), Ecospace, Fisheries, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP)
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Biological Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-175938DOI: 10.1007/s13280-019-01229-3ISI: 000492594700010PubMedID: 31350721OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-175938DiVA, id: diva2:1370434
Available from: 2019-11-15 Created: 2019-11-15 Last updated: 2020-01-23Bibliographically approved

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Bauer, BarbaraGustafsson, Bo G.Müller-Karulis, BärbelTomczak, Maciej T.
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