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The Risk for Novel and Disappearing Environmental Conditions in the Baltic Sea
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-6991-7680
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3968-2008
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
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2021 (English)In: Frontiers in Marine Science, E-ISSN 2296-7745, Vol. 8, article id 745722Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Future climate biogeochemical projections indicate large changes in the ocean with environmental conditions not experienced at present referred to as novel, or may even disappear. These climate-induced changes will most likely affect species distribution via changes in growth, behavior, evolution, dispersal, and species interactions. However, the future risk of novel and disappearing environmental conditions in the ocean is poorly understood, in particular for compound effects of climate and nutrient management changes. We map the compound risk of the occurrence of future novel and disappearing environmental conditions, analyze the outcome of climate and nutrient management scenarios for the world’s largest estuary, the Baltic Sea, and the potential consequences for three charismatic species. Overall, the future projections show, as expected, an increase in environmental novelty over time. The future nutrient reduction management that improves the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea contributes to large novel and disappearing conditions. We show the consequences of novel and disappearing environmental conditions for fundamental niches of three charismatic species under different scenarios. This first step toward comprehensively analyzing environmental novelty and disappearing conditions for a marine system illustrates the urgent need to include novelty and disappearing projection outputs in Earth System Models. Our results further illustrate that adaptive management is needed to account for the emergence of novelty related to the interplay of multiple drivers. Overall, our analysis provides strong support for the expectation of novel ecological communities in marine systems, which may affect ecosystem services, and needs to be accounted for in sustainable future management plans of our oceans.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 8, article id 745722
Keywords [en]
Ocean Engineering, Water Science and Technology, Aquatic Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography
National Category
Ecology Environmental Management
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-197607DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2021.745722ISI: 000709086300001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-197607DiVA, id: diva2:1601707
Available from: 2021-10-10 Created: 2021-10-10 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Novelty in the Anthropocene: Exploring past and future novelty in marine social-ecological systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Novelty in the Anthropocene: Exploring past and future novelty in marine social-ecological systems
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Humans have become the major driving force of change, deeply affecting the Earth system and the biosphere. In marine ecosystems specifically, climate-related environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing, the introduction of new species, nutrient load) have altered the structures and functioning of social-ecological systems (SES). These changes have created novel, never encountered before, SES dynamics. Novelty, a natural process of SES dynamics, has accelerated due to human activities. On the one hand, novelty allows SES to adapt to change, including maintaining their functions and resilience. On the other hand, the fast-emerging novelty in the Anthropocene epoch is unpredictable and increases the uncertainty related to management and predicting models. Despite consensus on the need for acknowledging novelty in SES, there is much confusion associated with this concept. This thesis provides a unifying conceptualization of novelty in SES by linking Complex Adaptive Systems theories and ecological novelty concepts. The papers that make up this thesis are an empirical contribution to understanding novelty in marine SES in the past and future. Novelty was measured in multiple social and ecological components of the Baltic Sea SES across different temporal and spatial scales. Although novelty is important for SES adaptation to change, it can be a problem or a solution - depending on its rate, drivers, and scale. There is a need to foster novelty that could enhance SES resilience and sustainability, in order to achieve good environmental status in marine ecosystems and for human wellbeing.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2021. p. 53
Keywords
Novelty, marine ecosystems, Social-Ecological Systems, Baltic Sea, Complex Adaptive Systems
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198093 (URN)978-91-7911-676-7 (ISBN)978-91-7911-677-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-12-10, Vivi Täckholmsalen (Q-salen), NPQ-huset, Svante Arrhenius väg 20, and online via Zoom, public link is available at the department website, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
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Available from: 2021-11-17 Created: 2021-10-26 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved

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Blenckner, ThorstenAmmar, YosrMüller-Karulis, BärbelNiiranen, SusaLi, Qiang

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