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Exploring future ecosystem novelty and resilience using the adaptive cycle
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3968-2008
Department of Aquatic Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
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(English)Manuscript (preprint) (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Marine ecosystems worldwide are under unprecedented pressure from the impacts of climate change and human activities. Such pressure increased novelty in species assemblages, i.e., assemblages increasingly outside their historical range of variation. It may further rise in the future, and whether it will unfold and influence resilience remains unclear. Using the adaptive cycle, we explore the relationship between resilience and novelty under the compound effect of climate, nutrient load, and fishing management scenarios in the Finnish Archipelago Sea (FAS) future food web model. Novelty was measured as the minimum dissimilarity over time relative to a specific baseline. Ecological Network Analysis indices associated to the model: ascendancy, capacity, and overhead flow, were used as indicators of connectedness, potential, and resilience axes of the adaptive cycle. A model-based clustering method distinguished four regimes determined by the impact of the nutrient load and climate on the bottom-up dynamic of the FAS food web. Resilience decreased in regimes where higher and faster novelty emerged in response to warmer climate pathways. The number of reorganization phases of the adaptive cycle, characterized by the generation of novelty, was greater in regimes under low nutrient load management scenarios. We highlight the importance of understanding ecosystem reorganization and resilience in a growing Anthropogenic novelty to inform future management. 

Keywords [en]
Adaptive cycles, novelty, resilience, reorganization, marine food web model, Ecological Network Analysis (ENA), Finnish Archipelago Sea
National Category
Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198088OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-198088DiVA, id: diva2:1606187
Available from: 2021-10-26 Created: 2021-10-26 Last updated: 2022-02-25
In thesis
1. Novelty in the Anthropocene: Exploring past and future novelty in marine social-ecological systems
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Novelty in the Anthropocene: Exploring past and future novelty in marine social-ecological systems
2021 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Humans have become the major driving force of change, deeply affecting the Earth system and the biosphere. In marine ecosystems specifically, climate-related environmental changes and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., fishing, the introduction of new species, nutrient load) have altered the structures and functioning of social-ecological systems (SES). These changes have created novel, never encountered before, SES dynamics. Novelty, a natural process of SES dynamics, has accelerated due to human activities. On the one hand, novelty allows SES to adapt to change, including maintaining their functions and resilience. On the other hand, the fast-emerging novelty in the Anthropocene epoch is unpredictable and increases the uncertainty related to management and predicting models. Despite consensus on the need for acknowledging novelty in SES, there is much confusion associated with this concept. This thesis provides a unifying conceptualization of novelty in SES by linking Complex Adaptive Systems theories and ecological novelty concepts. The papers that make up this thesis are an empirical contribution to understanding novelty in marine SES in the past and future. Novelty was measured in multiple social and ecological components of the Baltic Sea SES across different temporal and spatial scales. Although novelty is important for SES adaptation to change, it can be a problem or a solution - depending on its rate, drivers, and scale. There is a need to foster novelty that could enhance SES resilience and sustainability, in order to achieve good environmental status in marine ecosystems and for human wellbeing.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 2021. p. 53
Keywords
Novelty, marine ecosystems, Social-Ecological Systems, Baltic Sea, Complex Adaptive Systems
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Sustainability Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198093 (URN)978-91-7911-676-7 (ISBN)978-91-7911-677-4 (ISBN)
Public defence
2021-12-10, Vivi Täckholmsalen (Q-salen), NPQ-huset, Svante Arrhenius väg 20, and online via Zoom, public link is available at the department website, Stockholm, 14:00 (English)
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Available from: 2021-11-17 Created: 2021-10-26 Last updated: 2022-02-25Bibliographically approved

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Ammar, YosrTomczak, Maciej T.Nyström, MagnusBlenckner, Thorsten

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