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A health economic assessment of air pollution effects under climate neutral vehicle fleet scenarios in Stockholm, Sweden
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Number of Authors: 62021 (English)In: Journal of Transport and Health, ISSN 2214-1405, E-ISSN 2214-1405, Vol. 22, article id 101084Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Introduction: Electric vehicles (EVs) are heavily promoted as beneficial for climate and health. In most studies, it is assumed that EVs contribution to urban air pollution is zero due to no tailpipe emissions, ignoring the contribution of non-exhaust particles (brake, tire and road wear), which are unregulated in EU. This study of Stockholm, Sweden, aims to 1) assess how a future vehicle fleet impacts concentrations of particles of size less than 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) and evaluate the expected health outcomes economically and 2) compare this with CO2 savings. Methods: Source specific dispersion models of exhaust and non-exhaust PM2.5 was used to estimate the population weighted concentrations. Thereafter exposure differences within a business as usual (BAU2035) and a fossil free fuel (FFF2035) scenario were used to assess expected health and economic impacts. The assessment considered both exhaust and non-exhaust emissions, considering the vehicle weight and the proportion of vehicles using studded winter tires. Health economic costs were retrieved from the literature and societal willingness to pay was used to value quality-adjusted life-years lost due to morbidity and mortality. Results: The mean population weighted exhaust PM2.5 concentration decreased 0.012 mu g/m(3) (39%) in FFF2035 as compared to BAU2035. Assuming 50% higher road and tire wear PM2.5 emission because of higher weight among EVs and 30% less brake wear emissions, the estimated decrease in wear particle exposures were 0.152 (22%) and 0.014 mu g/m(3) (1.9%) for 0 and 30% use on studded winter tires, respectively. The resulting health economic costs were estimated to (sic)217M and (sic)32M, respectively. An increase by 0.079 mu g/m(3) (11%) was however estimated for 50% use of studded winter tires, corresponding to an mu 89M increase in health costs. Conclusion: Considering both exhaust and wear generated particles, it is not straight forward that an increase of EVs will decrease the negative health impacts.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2021. Vol. 22, article id 101084
Keywords [en]
Non-exhaust, Wear particles, Road dust, PM2.5, PM10, CO2, Electric vehicles, Exhaust, Mortality, Morbidity, QALY, Costs
National Category
Civil Engineering Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-198225DOI: 10.1016/j.jth.2021.101084ISI: 000697062200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85108259686OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-198225DiVA, id: diva2:1608942
Available from: 2021-11-05 Created: 2021-11-05 Last updated: 2022-10-17Bibliographically approved

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Johansson, Christer

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Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry
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