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Recurrent droughts increase risk of cascading tipping events by outpacing adaptive capacities in the Amazon rainforest
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Utrecht University, The Netherlands.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5409-1436
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2022 (English)In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, ISSN 0027-8424, E-ISSN 1091-6490, Vol. 119, no 32, article id e2120777119Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Tipping elements are nonlinear subsystems of the Earth system that have the potential to abruptly shift to another state if environmental change occurs close to a critical threshold with large consequences for human societies and ecosystems. Among these tipping elements may be the Amazon rainforest, which has been undergoing intensive anthropogenic activities and increasingly frequent droughts. Here, we assess how extreme deviations fromclimatological rainfall regimes may cause local forest collapse that cascades through the coupled forest-climate system. We develop a conceptual dynamic network model to isolate and uncover the role of atmospheric moisture recycling in such tipping cascades. We account for heterogeneity in critical thresholds of the forest caused by adaptation to local climatic conditions. Our results reveal that, despite this adaptation, a future climate characterized by permanent drought conditions could trigger a transition to an open canopy state particularly in the southern Amazon.Theloss of atmospheric moisture recycling contributes to one-third of the tipping events.Thus, by exceeding local thresholds in forest adaptive capacity, local climate change impacts may propagate to other regions of the Amazon basin, causing a risk of forest shifts even in regions where critical thresholds have not been crossed locally.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 119, no 32, article id e2120777119
Keywords [en]
Amazon rainforest, climate tipping elements, droughts, network dynamics, tipping cascades, rain, adaptation, Article, atmospheric moisture, canopy, climate change, collapse, conceptual model, controlled study, drought, environmental change, environmental indicator, environmental risk, nonhuman, rain forest, recycling, tipping element, trophic cascade, ecosystem, forest, human, tree, Forests, Humans, Rainforest, Trees
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-211999DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2120777119ISI: 000926104800006PubMedID: 35917341Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85135526828OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-211999DiVA, id: diva2:1715050
Available from: 2022-12-01 Created: 2022-12-01 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Staal, ArieTuinenburg, Obbe A.Donges, Jonathan

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