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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. University of Exeter, UK; Georesilience Analytics, UK.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-0020-7461
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Utrecht University, Netherlands.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5409-1436
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2022 (English)In: Science, ISSN 0036-8075, E-ISSN 1095-9203, Vol. 377, no 6611, article id eabn7950Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2022. Vol. 377, no 6611, article id eabn7950
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Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-211927DOI: 10.1126/science.abn7950ISI: 000887933400003PubMedID: 36074831Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85137602398OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-211927DiVA, id: diva2:1715163
Available from: 2022-12-01 Created: 2022-12-01 Last updated: 2025-02-07Bibliographically approved

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Armstrong McKay, David I.Staal, ArieFetzer, IngoCornell, Sarah E.Rockström, Johan

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