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Faecal shedding models for SARS-CoV-2 RNA among hospitalised patients and implications for wastewater-based epidemiology 
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physics. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmo Particle Physics (OKC).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4618-3546
Number of Authors: 22023 (English)In: The Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics, ISSN 0035-9254, E-ISSN 1467-9876, Vol. 72, no 2, p. 330-345Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The concentration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in faeces is not well characterised, posing challenges for quantitative wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE). We developed hierarchical models for faecal RNA shedding and fitted them to data from six studies. A mean concentration of 1.9 × 106 mL-1 (2.3 × 105–2.0 × 108 95% credible interval) was found among unvaccinated inpatients, not considering differences in shedding between viral variants. Limits of quantification could account for negative samples based on Bayesian model comparison. Inpatients represented the tail of the shedding profile with a half-life of 34 hours (28–43 95% credible interval), suggesting that WBE can be a leading indicator for clinical presentation. Shedding among inpatients could not explain the high RNA concentrations found in wastewater, consistent with more abundant shedding during the early infection course. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2023. Vol. 72, no 2, p. 330-345
Keywords [en]
hierarchical modelling, viral load, wastewater-based epidemiology
National Category
Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-216285DOI: 10.1093/jrsssc/qlad011ISI: 000949334900001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-216285DiVA, id: diva2:1750353
Available from: 2023-04-13 Created: 2023-04-13 Last updated: 2023-12-19Bibliographically approved

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Alsing, Justin

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Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and EpidemiologyProbability Theory and Statistics

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