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Process-evaluation of forest aerosol-cloud-climate feedback shows clear evidence from observations and large uncertainty in models
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science. Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0001-9055-5330
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Number of Authors: 222024 (English)In: Nature Communications, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 15, article id 969Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Natural aerosol feedbacks are expected to become more important in the future, as anthropogenic aerosol emissions decrease due to air quality policy. One such feedback is initiated by the increase in biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions with higher temperatures, leading to higher secondary organic aerosol (SOA) production and a cooling of the surface via impacts on cloud radiative properties. Motivated by the considerable spread in feedback strength in Earth System Models (ESMs), we here use two long-term observational datasets from boreal and tropical forests, together with satellite data, for a process-based evaluation of the BVOC-aerosol-cloud feedback in four ESMs. The model evaluation shows that the weakest modelled feedback estimates can likely be excluded, but highlights compensating errors making it difficult to draw conclusions of the strongest estimates. Overall, the method of evaluating along process chains shows promise in pin-pointing sources of uncertainty and constraining modelled aerosol feedbacks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 15, article id 969
National Category
Environmental Sciences Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-226921DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-45001-yISI: 001159313700037PubMedID: 38326341Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85187156779OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-226921DiVA, id: diva2:1841700
Available from: 2024-02-29 Created: 2024-02-29 Last updated: 2025-02-01Bibliographically approved

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Blichner, Sara M.Heikkinen, LiineMohr, ClaudiaRiipinen, Ilona

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CiteExportLink to record
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