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On duration effects in non-life insurance pricing
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-7235-384x
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
Number of Authors: 22024 (English)In: European Actuarial Journal, ISSN 2190-9733, E-ISSN 2190-9741, Vol. 14, p. 809-832Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The paper discusses duration effects on the consistency of mean parameter and dispersion parameter estimators in exponential dispersion families (EDFs) that are the standard models used for non-life insurance pricing. Focus is on the standard generalised linear model assumptions where both the mean and variance, conditional on duration, are linear functions in terms of duration. We derive simple convergence results that highlight consequences when the linear conditional moment assumptions are not satisfied. These results illustrate that: (i) the resulting mean estimators always have a relevant asymptotic interpretation in terms of the duration adjusted actuarially fair premium—a premium that only agrees with the standard actuarial premium using a duration equal to one, given that the expected value is linear in the duration; (ii) deviance based estimators of the dispersion parameter in an EDF should be avoided in favour of Pearson estimators; (iii) unless the linear moment assumptions are satisfied, consistency of dispersion and plug-in variance estimators can not be guaranteed and may result in spurious over-dispersion. The results provide explicit conditions on the underlying data generating process that will lead to spurious over-dispersion that can be used for model checking. This is illustrated based on real insurance data, where it is concluded that the linear moment assumptions are violated, which results in non-negligible spurious over-dispersion. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 14, p. 809-832
Keywords [en]
Consistency, Duration, Exponential dispersion family, Generalised linear model, Over-dispersion, Dispersion estimators
National Category
Probability Theory and Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-231237DOI: 10.1007/s13385-024-00385-5ISI: 001232118300001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85194554249OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-231237DiVA, id: diva2:1876157
Available from: 2024-06-24 Created: 2024-06-24 Last updated: 2025-02-21Bibliographically approved

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Lindholm, MathiasNazar, Taariq

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