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Constraining net long-term climate feedback from satellite-observed internal variability possible by the mid-2030s
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0002-5405-5352
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-4867-4007
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology . Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, The Bolin Centre for Climate Research (together with KTH & SMHI).ORCID iD: 0000-0003-1418-4077
Number of Authors: 32024 (English)In: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics, ISSN 1680-7316, E-ISSN 1680-7324, Vol. 24, no 23, p. 13371-13384Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Observing climate feedbacks to long-term global warming, which are crucial climate regulators, is not feasible within the observational record. However, linking them to top-of-the-atmosphere flux variations in response to natural surface temperature fluctuations (internal variability feedbacks) is a viable approach. We explore the use of relating internal variability to forced climate feedbacks in models and applying the resulting relationship to observations to constrain forced climate feedbacks. Our findings reveal strong longwave and shortwave feedback relationships in models during the 14-year overlap with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) record. Yet, due to the weaker relationship between internal variability and forced climate longwave feedbacks, the net feedback relationship remains weak, even over longer periods beyond the CERES record. However, after about half a century, this relationship strengthens, primarily due to reinforcements of the internal variability and forced climate shortwave feedback relationship. We therefore explore merging the satellite records with reanalysis to establish an extended data record. The resulting constraint suggests a stronger negative forced climate net feedback than the model's distribution and an equilibrium climate sensitivity of about 2.59 K (1.95 to 3.12 K, 5 %–95 % confidence intervals). Nevertheless, this method does not account for certain factors like biogeophysical–chemical feedbacks, inactive on short timescales and not represented in most models, along with differences in historical warming patterns, which may lead to misrepresenting climate sensitivity. Additionally, continuous satellite observations until at least the mid-2030s are essential for using purely observed estimates of the net internal variability feedback to constrain the net forced climate feedback and, consequently, climate sensitivity.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2024. Vol. 24, no 23, p. 13371-13384
National Category
Climate Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-240660DOI: 10.5194/acp-24-13371-2024ISI: 001369578900001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-85211239761OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-240660DiVA, id: diva2:1944484
Available from: 2025-03-14 Created: 2025-03-14 Last updated: 2025-03-14Bibliographically approved

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Uribe, AlejandroBender, Frida A.-M.Mauritsen, Thorsten

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