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Does money growth predict inflation in Sweden? Evidence from vector autoregressions using four centuries of data
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economic History and International Relations.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-3069-3819
Number of Authors: 32025 (English)In: Empirical Economics, ISSN 0377-7332, E-ISSN 1435-8921Article in journal (Refereed) Epub ahead of print
Abstract [en]

In this paper, we add new evidence to a long-debated macroeconomic question, namely, whether money growth has predictive power for inflation or put differently, whether money growth Granger causes inflation. We use a historical dataset—consisting of annual Swedish data on money growth and inflation ranging from 1620 to 2021—and employ state-of-the-art Bayesian estimation methods. Specifically, we employ VAR models with drifting parameters and stochastic volatility which are used to conduct analysis both within- and out-of-sample. Our results indicate that the within-sample analysis—based on marginal likelihoods—provides strong evidence in favour of money growth Granger causing inflation. This strong evidence is, however, not reflected in our out-of-sample analysis, as it does not translate into a corresponding improvement in forecast accuracy.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2025.
Keywords [en]
E31, E37, E47, E51, N13, Out-of-sample forecasts, Stochastic volatility, Time-varying parameters
National Category
Economic History
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-241633DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02684-yISI: 001363219200001Scopus ID: 2-s2.0-105003978836OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-241633DiVA, id: diva2:1950036
Available from: 2025-04-04 Created: 2025-04-04 Last updated: 2025-05-21

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Edvinsson, Rodney

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