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The sensitivity of the Arctic sea ice to orbitally induced insolation changes: a study of the mid-Holocene Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project 2 and 3 simulations
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU).
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU).
Stockholms universitet, Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten, Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU).ORCID-id: 0000-0002-9591-124X
2013 (Engelska)Ingår i: Climate of the Past, ISSN 1814-9324, E-ISSN 1814-9332, Vol. 9, nr 2, s. 969-982Artikel i tidskrift (Refereegranskat) Published
Abstract [en]

In the present work the Arctic sea ice in the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climates are analysed and compared on the basis of climate-model results from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PMIP2) and phase 3 (PMIP3). The PMIP3 models generally simulate smaller and thinner sea-ice extents than the PMIP2 models both for the pre-industrial and the mid-Holocene climate. Further, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 models all simulate a smaller and thinner Arctic summer sea-ice cover in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial control climate. The PMIP3 models also simulate thinner winter sea ice than the PMIP2 models. The winter sea-ice extent response, i.e. the difference between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial climate, varies among both PMIP2 and PMIP3 models. Approximately one half of the models simulate a decrease in winter sea-ice extent and one half simulates an increase. The model-mean summer sea-ice extent is 11% (21 %) smaller in the mid-Holocene than in the pre-industrial climate simulations in the PMIP2 (PMIP3). In accordance with the simple model of Thorndike (1992), the sea-ice thickness response to the insolation change from the pre-industrial to the mid-Holocene is stronger in models with thicker ice in the pre-industrial climate simulation. Further, the analyses show that climate models for which the Arctic sea-ice responses to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are similar may simulate rather different sea-ice responses to the change in solar forcing between the mid-Holocene and the pre-industrial. For two specific models, which are analysed in detail, this difference is found to be associated with differences in the simulated cloud fractions in the summer Arctic; in the model with a larger cloud fraction the effect of insolation change is muted. A sub-set of the mid-Holocene simulations in the PMIP ensemble exhibit open water off the north-eastern coast of Greenland in summer, which can provide a fetch for surface waves. This is in broad agreement with recent analyses of sea-ice proxies, indicating that beach-ridges formed on the north-eastern coast of Greenland during the early-to mid-Holocene.

Ort, förlag, år, upplaga, sidor
2013. Vol. 9, nr 2, s. 969-982
Nationell ämneskategori
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning
Identifikatorer
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-92049DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-969-2013ISI: 000319840900005OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-92049DiVA, id: diva2:636951
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Tillgänglig från: 2013-07-15 Skapad: 2013-07-15 Senast uppdaterad: 2019-12-12Bibliografiskt granskad

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Av författaren/redaktören
Berger, M.Nilsson, Johan
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Meteorologiska institutionen (MISU)
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Climate of the Past
Meteorologi och atmosfärforskning

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