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Inferring R-0 in emerging epidemics-the effect of common population structure is small
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Mathematics.
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Number of Authors: 6
2016 (English)In: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, ISSN 1742-5689, E-ISSN 1742-5662, Vol. 13, no 121, 20160288Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease, it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number R-0 and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These parameters are estimated from the observed incidence of new cases and information about the infectious contact structures of the population in which the disease spreads. However, the relevant infectious contact structures for new, emerging infections are often unknown or hard to obtain. Here, we show that, for many common true underlying heterogeneous contact structures, the simplification to neglect such structures and instead assume that all contacts are made homogeneously in the whole population results in conservative estimates for R-0 and the required control effort. This means that robust control policies can be planned during the early stages of an outbreak, using such conservative estimates of the required control effort.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 13, no 121, 20160288
Keyword [en]
infectious disease modelling, emerging epidemics, population structure, real-time spread, R-0
National Category
Mathematics Biophysics Control Engineering
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-135992DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0288ISI: 000385993000010OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-135992DiVA: diva2:1050240
Available from: 2016-11-28 Created: 2016-11-28 Last updated: 2016-11-29Bibliographically approved

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Trapman, PieterBritton, Tom
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