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ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of the initial conditions
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
Number of Authors: 4
2016 (English)In: Geophysical Research Letters, ISSN 0094-8276, E-ISSN 1944-8007, Vol. 43, no 16, 8694-8702 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

A large ensemble of Earth System Model simulations is analyzed to show that high-latitude Northern Hemisphere eruptions give rise to El Nino-like anomalies in the winter following the eruption, the amplitude of which depends on the state of the tropical Pacific at the time of the eruption. The El Nino-like anomalies are almost three times larger when the eruption occurs during an incipient La Nina or during a neutral state compared to an incipient El Nino. The differential response results from stronger atmosphere-ocean coupling and extra-tropical feedbacks during an incipient La Nina compared to El Nino. Differences in the response continue through the second and third years following the eruption. When the eruption happens in a year of an incipient El Nino, a large cold (La Nina-like) anomaly develops in year 2; if the eruption occurs in a year of an incipient La Nina, no anomalies are simulated in year 2 and a La Nina-like response appears in year 3. After the El Nino-like anomaly in the first winter, the overall tendency of ENSO in the following 2years is toward a La Nina state. Our results highlight the high sensitivity of tropical Pacific dynamics under volcanic forcing to the ENSO initial state and lay the groundwork for improved predictions of the global climatic response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2016. Vol. 43, no 16, 8694-8702 p.
Keyword [en]
extra-tropical volcanic eruptions, initial conditions, ENSO predictability, tropical Pacific
National Category
Climate Research
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-135978DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069575ISI: 000384443800043OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-135978DiVA: diva2:1050504
Available from: 2016-11-29 Created: 2016-11-28 Last updated: 2016-11-29Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
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  • nn-NB
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Output format
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