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Future response of temperature and precipitation to reduced aerosol emissions as compared with increased greenhouse gas concentrations
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
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2017 (English)In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 30, no 3, 939-954 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Experiments with a climate model (NorESM1) were performed to isolate the effects of aerosol particles and greenhouse gases on surface temperature and precipitation in simulations of future climate. The simulations show that by 2025-2049, a reduction of aerosol emissions from fossil fuels following a maximum technically feasible reduction (MFR) scenario could lead to a global and Arctic warming of 0.26 K and 0.84 K, respectively; as compared with a simulation with fixed aerosol emissions at the level of 2005. If fossil fuel emissions of aerosols follow a current legislation emissions (CLE) scenario, the NorESM1 model simulations yield a non-significant change in global and Arctic average surface temperature as compared with aerosol emissions fixed at year 2005. The corresponding greenhouse gas effect following the RCP4.5 emission scenario leads to a global and Arctic warming of 0.35 K and 0.94 K, respectively.

The model yields a marked annual average northward shift in the inter-tropical convergence zone with decreasing aerosol emissions and subsequent warming of the northern hemisphere. The shift is most pronounced in the MFR scenario but also visible in the CLE scenario. The modeled temperature response to a change in greenhouse gas concentrations is relatively symmetric between the hemispheres and there is no marked shift in the annual average position of the inter-tropical convergence zone. The strong reduction in aerosol emissions in MFR also leads to a net southward cross-hemispheric energy transport anomaly both in the atmosphere and ocean, and enhanced monsoon circulation in Southeast and East Asia causing an increase in precipitation over a large part of this region.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 30, no 3, 939-954 p.
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-137076DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0466.1ISI: 000395512300007OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-137076DiVA: diva2:1059211
Available from: 2016-12-22 Created: 2016-12-22 Last updated: 2017-05-03Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Anthropogenic influence on climate through changes in aerosol emissions from air pollution and land use change
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Anthropogenic influence on climate through changes in aerosol emissions from air pollution and land use change
2017 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Particulate matter suspended in air (i.e. aerosol particles) exerts a substantial influence on the climate of our planet and is responsible for causing severe public health problems in many regions across the globe. Human activities have altered the natural and anthropogenic emissions of aerosol particles through direct emissions or indirectly by modifying natural sources. The climate effects of the latter have been largely overlooked. Humans have dramatically altered the land surface of the planet causing changes in natural aerosol emissions from vegetated areas. Regulation on anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions have the potential to affect the climate on regional to global scales. Furthermore, the regional climate effects of aerosol particles could potentially be very different than the ones caused by other climate forcers (e.g. well mixed greenhouse gases). The main objective of this work was to investigate the climatic effects of land use and air pollution via aerosol changes.

Using numerical model simulations it was found that land use changes in the past millennium have likely caused a positive radiative forcing via aerosol climate interactions. The forcing is an order of magnitude smaller and has an opposite sign than the radiative forcing caused by direct aerosol emissions changes from other human activities. The results also indicate that future reductions of fossil fuel aerosols via air quality regulations may lead to an additional warming of the planet by mid-21st century and could also cause an important Arctic amplification of the warming. In addition, the mean position of the intertropical convergence zone and the Asian monsoon appear to be sensitive to aerosol emission reductions from air quality regulations. For these reasons, climate mitigation policies should take into consideration aerosol air pollution, which has not received sufficient attention in the past.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, 2017
Keyword
Climate change, Air quality, Land use, General circulation, Atmosphere-Ocean interactions, Aerosol climate effects, Earth system modelling
National Category
Climate Research Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences Environmental Sciences Oceanography, Hydrology, Water Resources
Research subject
Applied Environmental Science
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-137077 (URN)978-91-7649-650-3 (ISBN)978-91-7649-651-0 (ISBN)
Public defence
2017-02-17, Nordenskiöldsalen, Geovetenskapens hus, Svante Arrhenius väg 12, Stockholm, 13:00 (English)
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Available from: 2017-01-25 Created: 2016-12-22 Last updated: 2017-01-24Bibliographically approved

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Acosta Navarro, Juan C.Pausata, Francesco S. R.Lewinschal, AnnaRiipinen, IlonaHansson, Hans Christen
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