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Exploring future land system change in Central and Eastern Africa
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.
2017 (English)Independent thesis Advanced level (degree of Master (Two Years)), 80 credits / 120 HE creditsStudent thesis
Abstract [en]

The Central and Eastern African region is confronted with increasing socio-economic demands and global change pressures which could in the near future threaten the sustainability of its land system. Significant land use and cover (or land system) change would critically impact nature and people both locally and globally. Yet, its action is comparatively less studied than for other parts of the world, highlighting the need to have improved information on plausible future land system change in this region.

This work synthesised a set of underlying drivers and proximate causes of land system change in the region through a metastudy, to than conduct a scenario analysis based on identified critical uncertainties, exploring future change in this land system.

Multiple social and biophysical underlying drivers emerged as acting on proximate causes through chains of causation, driving change in cropland, forest, infrastructure, urban, and dryland areas. Two identified critical uncertainties, global versus local economic system orientation and fragmented versus integrated regional governance, defined four plausible scenarios exploring different land system change.

The findings of this work contribute to the understanding of plausible future change in this understudied land system, and provide the base for complementary land system research. Additionally, reported conclusions could inform policy or practice processes aimed at steering the future of this land system at a critical juncture.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017.
National Category
Other Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-139066OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-139066DiVA, id: diva2:1070930
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Available from: 2017-02-02 Created: 2017-02-02Bibliographically approved

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