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Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks
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Number of Authors: 9
2017 (English)In: Nature Communications, ISSN 2041-1723, E-ISSN 2041-1723, Vol. 8, 14681Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Reduced rainfall increases the risk of forest dieback, while in return forest loss might intensify regional droughts. The consequences of this vegetation-atmosphere feedback for the stability of the Amazon forest are still unclear. Here we show that the risk of self-amplified Amazon forest loss increases nonlinearly with dry-season intensification. We apply a novel complexnet-work approach, in which Amazon forest patches are linked by observation-based atmospheric water fluxes. Our results suggest that the risk of self-amplified forest loss is reduced with increasing heterogeneity in the response of forest patches to reduced rainfall. Under dry-season Amazonian rainfall reductions, comparable to Last Glacial Maximum conditions, additional forest loss due to self-amplified effects occurs in 10-13% of the Amazon basin. Although our findings do not indicate that the projected rainfall changes for the end of the twenty-first century will lead to complete Amazon dieback, they suggest that frequent extreme drought events have the potential to destabilize large parts of the Amazon forest.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 8, 14681
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-141201DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14681ISI: 000396215700001PubMedID: 28287104OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-141201DiVA: diva2:1091950
Available from: 2017-04-28 Created: 2017-04-28 Last updated: 2017-04-28Bibliographically approved

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Wang-Erlandsson, Lan
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