Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
An observation-based constraint on permafrost loss as a function of global warming
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 6
2017 (English)In: Nature Climate Change, ISSN 1758-678X, E-ISSN 1758-6798, Vol. 7, no 5, 340-344 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Permafrost, which covers 15 million km(2) of the land surface, is one of the components of the Earth system that is most sensitive to warming(1,2). Loss of permafrost would radically change high-latitude hydrology and biogeochemical cycling, and could therefore provide very significant feedbacks on climate change(3-8). The latest climate models all predict warming of high-latitude soils and thus thawing of permafrost under future climate change, but with widely varying magnitudes of permafrost thaw(9,10). Here we show that in each of the models, their present-day spatial distribution of permafrost and air temperature can be used to infer the sensitivity of permafrost to future global warming. Using the same approach for the observed permafrost distribution and air temperature, we estimate a sensitivity of permafrost area loss to global mean warming at stabilization of 4.0(-1.1)(+1.0) million km(2) degrees C-1 (1 sigma confidence), which is around 20% higher than previous studies(9). Our method facilitates an assessment for COP21 climate change targets(11): if the climate is stabilized at 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels, we estimate that the permafrost area would eventually be reduced by over 40%. Stabilizing at 1.5 degrees C rather than 2 degrees C would save approximately 2 million km(2) of permafrost.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 7, no 5, 340-344 p.
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-143402DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3262ISI: 000400373500013OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-143402DiVA: diva2:1104054
Available from: 2017-05-31 Created: 2017-05-31 Last updated: 2017-05-31Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Hugelius, Gustaf
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography
In the same journal
Nature Climate Change
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 76 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf