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Forecasting and Analysing Corporate Tax Revenues in Sweden Using Bayesian VAR Models
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics.
2017 (English)In: Finnish economic papers, ISSN 0784-5197, Vol. 28, no 1, 50-74 p.Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Corporate tax revenue forecasts are important for governmental agencies, but are complicated to achieve with high precision and generally also difficult to connect to governments’ macroeconomic forecasts. This paper proposes a solution to these problems by decomposing corporate tax revenues and connecting the components to different determinants using Bayesian VAR models. Applied to Sweden, we find that most of the variation in forecasting errors of net operating surplus and net business income are attributable to shocks in factors identified in the literature, and that the forecasting performance is improved by conditioning on the macroeconomic development.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 28, no 1, 50-74 p.
Keyword [en]
Corporate tax, Bayesian VAR, Forecasting tax revenue, Analysing tax revenue
National Category
Economics
Research subject
Economics; Statistics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-148512OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-148512DiVA: diva2:1153077
Available from: 2017-10-27 Created: 2017-10-27 Last updated: 2017-10-30Bibliographically approved

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CiteExportLink to record
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