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From shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to oceanic system pathways (OSPs): Building policy-relevant scenarios for global oceanic ecosystems and fisheries
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Number of Authors: 182017 (English)In: Global Environmental Change, ISSN 0959-3780, E-ISSN 1872-9495, Vol. 45, p. 203-216Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

There is an urgent need for developing policy-relevant future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services. This paper is a milestone toward this aim focusing on open ocean fisheries. We develop five contrasting Oceanic System Pathways (OSPs), based on the existing five archetypal worlds of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate change research (e.g., Nakicenovic et al., 2014 and Riahi et al., 2016). First, we specify the boundaries of the oceanic social-ecological system under focus. Second, the two major driving forces of oceanic social-ecological systems are identified in each of three domains, viz., economy, management and governance. For each OSP (OSP1 sustainability first, OSP2 conventional trends, OSP3 dislocation, OSP4 global elite and inequality, OSP5 high tech and market), a storyline is outlined describing the evolution of the driving forces with the corresponding SSP. Finally, we compare the different pathways of oceanic social-ecological systems by projecting them in the two-dimensional spaces defined by the driving forces, in each of the economy, management and governance domains. We expect that the OSPs will serve as a common basis for future model based scenario studies in the context of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 45, p. 203-216
Keywords [en]
Scenarios, Oceanic fisheries, Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), Oceanic system pathways (OSPs), Economy, Management, Governance
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences Social and Economic Geography
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-148916DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.06.007ISI: 000411912800018OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-148916DiVA, id: diva2:1156970
Available from: 2017-11-14 Created: 2017-11-14 Last updated: 2018-01-26Bibliographically approved

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Österblom, Henrik
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Stockholm Resilience Centre
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