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Towards representing human behavior and decision making in Earth system models - an overview of techniques and approaches
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0002-7780-1039
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm Resilience Centre. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5233-7703
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Number of Authors: 7
2017 (English)In: Earth System Dynamics, ISSN 2190-4979, E-ISSN 2190-4987, Vol. 8, no 4, p. 977-1007Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Today, humans have a critical impact on the Earth system and vice versa, which can generate complex feedback processes between social and ecological dynamics. Integrating human behavior into formal Earth system models (ESMs), however, requires crucial modeling assumptions about actors and their goals, behavioral options, and decision rules, as well as modeling decisions regarding human social interactions and the aggregation of individuals' behavior. Here, we review existing modeling approaches and techniques from various disciplines and schools of thought dealing with human behavior at different levels of decision making. We demonstrate modelers' often vast degrees of freedom but also seek to make modelers aware of the often crucial consequences of seemingly innocent modeling assumptions. After discussing which socioeconomic units are potentially important for ESMs, we compare models of individual decision making that correspond to alternative behavioral theories and that make diverse modeling assumptions about individuals' preferences, beliefs, decision rules, and foresight. We review approaches to model social interaction, covering game theoretic frameworks, models of social influence, and network models. Finally, we discuss approaches to studying how the behavior of individuals, groups, and organizations can aggregate to complex collective phenomena, discussing agent-based, statistical, and representative-agent modeling and economic macro-dynamics. We illustrate the main ingredients of modeling techniques with examples from land-use dynamics as one of the main drivers of environmental change bridging local to global scales.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2017. Vol. 8, no 4, p. 977-1007
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
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URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-149824DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-977-2017ISI: 000414693000001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-149824DiVA, id: diva2:1165670
Available from: 2017-12-13 Created: 2017-12-13 Last updated: 2018-01-26Bibliographically approved

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Schlüter, MajaDonges, Jonathan F.Thonicke, Kirsten
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