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Insurance as Strategy for Flood Risk Management at Limpopo River Basin – A decision making Process under Uncertainty
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences. Eduardo Mondlane University, Mozambique.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Computer and Systems Sciences.
2013 (English)In: International Journal of Computers & Technology, ISSN 2277-3061, Vol. 10, no 8, p. 1862-1877Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The Limpopo River Basin, one of the nine international rivers crossing Mozambique, historically has shown to be cyclically flooded, undermining the economic and social development of its four riparian countries. Local and external added efforts are always in place when floods occur. Nowadays there are recommended ex-ante instruments to prevent floods and one of the most applicable instruments worldwide is insurance. Most of the inhabitants, even governments, affected by Limpopo River Basin are poor, therefore our concern regards the viability to apply insurance as a strategy for flood risk management. Moreover our research investigates to what extent the application of insurance, within two identified communities as case study, might create an added value in the process of decision making on flood risk management for Limpopo River Basin.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2013. Vol. 10, no 8, p. 1862-1877
Keywords [en]
Insurance, strategy, decision making, uncertainty, floods
National Category
Other Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-154475OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-154475DiVA, id: diva2:1194018
Available from: 2018-03-28 Created: 2018-03-28 Last updated: 2018-05-30Bibliographically approved
In thesis
1. Scenarios for Flood Risk Management Strategies Integration in Mozambique: A backcasting approach for the case of the Limpopo River Basin
Open this publication in new window or tab >>Scenarios for Flood Risk Management Strategies Integration in Mozambique: A backcasting approach for the case of the Limpopo River Basin
2018 (English)Doctoral thesis, comprehensive summary (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

Flood risk management strategic planning with long-term perspectives is a complex problem, for which the solution requires a multidisciplinary and multi-paradigm approach. A significant dimension of this complexity arises from the need to include or add a participatory mode to the solution process, which amounts to a requirement that all stakeholders, ranging from decision makers to experts and beneficiaries, be involved in the decision making. However, these stakeholders may have different objectives, and this may lead to different or even conflicting courses of action, particularly when a selection must be made of the most appropriate coping strategy that may lead to sustainability. Multiple-criteria decision analysis is one paradigm that has the capability to handle these conflicting courses of action. There is a volume of research that has presented various strategies for flood risk management over the last couple of decades. Recent approaches have included computer-based modelling and infrastructure measurement. One finding providing a strong basis for the relevance of the problem we are trying to solve is that most of these strategies fail in the long run; this is particularly true in developing countries, considering their economic, infrastructure and social limitations.

 

Hence, a novel approach is very much warranted, and this is the central object of our study. An important aspect of its novelty lies in realising that instead of applying numerous strategies in isolation, one needs to combine and integrate them. Our research focuses on developing scenarios for integrating flood risk management strategies, based on multiple-criteria decision analysis to combine conflicting arguments in order to generate a viable strategy. Additional aspects of this holistic approach were imported from the area of business management, such as strategic planning and balanced scorecards for decision making within scenario planning. Finally, a long-term vision for a sustainable environment that minimises the impact of floods was designed using backcasting scenario planning.

 

The decision-making alternatives were risk, hazard, exposure and vulnerability, and these were used against a set of 24 criteria for control. These criteria were extracted from various coping and adaptive capabilities, and from environmental, economic, and social domains. The scenarios for the integration of flood risk management strategies are based on a real-life case study of the Limpopo River Basin, and specifically of the Chókwe district in Gaza province, Mozambique. The result of this research was a framework called SPIFRiMS, based on a sliding weight elicitation method. The framework and the data from the case study were implemented in Excel. The research outputs were five different scenarios illustrating different options from the perspectives of the stakeholders and beneficiaries in the light of their long-term views when compared to the actual state of the art. 

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
Stockholm: Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University, 2018. p. 109
Series
Report Series / Department of Computer & Systems Sciences, ISSN 1101-8526 ; 18-004
Keywords
Flood risk management strategies, scenario planning, backcasting, MCDA, risk, hazards, exposure, vulnerability
National Category
Social Sciences
Research subject
Computer and Systems Sciences
Identifiers
urn:nbn:se:su:diva-154480 (URN)978-91-7649-543-8 (ISBN)978-91-7649-544-5 (ISBN)
Public defence
2018-05-25, Lilla hörsalen, Nod-huset, Borgarfjordsgatan 12, Kista, 13:00 (English)
Opponent
Supervisors
Available from: 2018-05-02 Created: 2018-03-29 Last updated: 2018-05-04Bibliographically approved

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