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Investigating Sequences in Ordinal Data: A New Approach With Adapted Evolutionary Models
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Zoology, Animal Ecology. Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Institute for Future Studies, Sweden; University of Gothenburg, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0003-3245-0850
Stockholm University, Faculty of Humanities, Department of Archaeology and Classical Studies, Centre for Cultural Evolution. Mälardalen University, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-8357-0276
2018 (English)In: Political Science Research and Methods, ISSN 2049-8470, E-ISSN 2049-8489, Vol. 6, no 3, p. 449-466Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper presents a new approach for studying temporal sequences across ordinal variables. It involves three complementary approaches (frequency tables, transitional graphs, and dependency tables), as well as an established adaptation based on Bayesian dynamical systems, inferring a general system of change. The frequency tables count pairs of values in two variables and transitional graphs depict changes, showing which variable tends to attain high values first. The dependency tables investigate which values of one variable are prerequisites for values in another, as a more direct test of causal hypotheses. We illustrate the proposed approaches by analyzing the V-Dem dataset, and show that changes in electoral democracy are preceded by changes in freedom of expression and access to alternative information.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 6, no 3, p. 449-466
National Category
Political Science (excluding Public Administration Studies and Globalisation Studies)
Research subject
Political Science
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-155035DOI: 10.1017/psrm.2018.9ISI: 000431289200003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-155035DiVA, id: diva2:1196619
Available from: 2018-04-10 Created: 2018-04-10 Last updated: 2018-05-28Bibliographically approved

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Lindenfors, PatrikJansson, FredrikLindberg, Staffan
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