Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Do differences in future sulfate emission pathways matter for near-term climate? A case study for the Asian monsoon
Show others and affiliations
Number of Authors: 72018 (English)In: Climate Dynamics, ISSN 0930-7575, E-ISSN 1432-0894, Vol. 50, no 5-6, p. 1863-1880Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Anthropogenic aerosols could dominate over greenhouse gases in driving near-term hydroclimate change, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia. Uncertainties in near-future aerosol emissions represent a potentially large, yet unexplored, source of ambiguity in climate projections for the coming decades. We investigated the near-term sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon to aerosols by means of transient modelling experiments using HadGEM2-ES under two existing climate change mitigation scenarios selected to have similar greenhouse gas forcing, but to span a wide range of plausible global sulfur dioxide emissions. Increased sulfate aerosols, predominantly from East Asian sources, lead to large regional dimming through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. This results in surface cooling and anomalous anticyclonic flow over land, while abating the western Pacific subtropical high. The East Asian monsoon circulation weakens and precipitation stagnates over Indochina, resembling the observed southern-flood-northern-drought pattern over China. Large-scale circulation adjustments drive suppression of the South Asian monsoon and a westward extension of the Maritime Continent convective region. Remote impacts across the Northern Hemisphere are also generated, including a northwestward shift of West African monsoon rainfall induced by the westward displacement of the Indian Ocean Walker cell, and temperature anomalies in northern midlatitudes linked to propagation of Rossby waves from East Asia. These results indicate that aerosol emissions are a key source of uncertainty in near-term projection of regional and global climate; a careful examination of the uncertainties associated with aerosol pathways in future climate assessments must be highly prioritised.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 50, no 5-6, p. 1863-1880
Keywords [en]
Anthropogenic aerosols, Asian monsoon, Atmospheric circulation, Precipitation, Climate model, Future scenarios
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-154805DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3726-6ISI: 000426707100022OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-154805DiVA, id: diva2:1197673
Available from: 2018-04-13 Created: 2018-04-13 Last updated: 2018-04-13Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Messori, Gabriele
By organisation
Department of Meteorology
In the same journal
Climate Dynamics
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 59 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf