Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
Number of Authors: 22018 (English)In: Journal of macroeconomics, ISSN 0164-0704, E-ISSN 1873-152X, Vol. 55, p. 46-63Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper examines the impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on German excess stock returns and the possible reasons for such a response. First, we conduct an event study to assess the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on stock returns. Second, within the VAR framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose excess stock returns into news regarding expected excess returns, future dividends and future real interest rates. We measure conventional monetary policy shocks using futures markets data. Our main findings are that the overall variation in German excess stock returns mainly reflects revisions in expectations about dividends and that the stock market response to monetary policy shocks is dependent on the prevailing interest rate regime. In periods of negative real interest rates, a surprise monetary tightening leads to a decrease in excess stock returns. The channels behind this response are news about higher expected excess returns and lower future dividends.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 55, p. 46-63
Keywords [en]
Monetary policy shocks, Stock market, Variance decomposition, VAR model, Unconventional monetary policy
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-155982DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2017.09.001ISI: 000428486300004OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-155982DiVA, id: diva2:1205621
Available from: 2018-05-14 Created: 2018-05-14 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Authority records

Fausch, Jürg

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Fausch, Jürg
By organisation
Department of Economics
In the same journal
Journal of macroeconomics
Economics and Business

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 78 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf