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Hidden variables in a Dynamic Bayesian Network identify ecosystem level change
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5956-0115
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Stockholm University Baltic Sea Centre.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5718-4726
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Number of Authors: 62018 (English)In: Ecological Informatics, ISSN 1574-9541, E-ISSN 1878-0512, Vol. 45, p. 9-15Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

Ecosystems are known to change in terms of their structure and functioning over time. Modelling this change is a challenge, however, as data are scarce, and models often assume that the relationships between ecosystem components are invariable over time. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) with hidden variables have been proposed as a method to overcome this challenge, as the hidden variables can capture the unobserved processes. In this paper, we fit a series of DBNs with different hidden variable structures to a system known to have undergone a major structural change, i.e. the Baltic Sea food web. The exact setup of the hidden variables did not considerably affect the result, and the hidden variables picked up a pattern that agrees with previous research on the system dynamics.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 45, p. 9-15
Keywords [en]
Dynamic Bayesian Network, Hidden variable, Ecosystem modelling, Baltic Sea, Gotland Basin
National Category
Biological Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-158169DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2018.03.003ISI: 000433654000002OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-158169DiVA, id: diva2:1234208
Available from: 2018-07-23 Created: 2018-07-23 Last updated: 2022-02-26Bibliographically approved

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Uusitalo, LauraTomczak, Maciej T.Muller-Karulis, Bärbel

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