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Dynamical Properties of the North Atlantic Atmospheric Circulation in the Past 150 Years in CMIP5 Models and the 20CRv2c Reanalysis
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Meteorology .
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Number of Authors: 62018 (English)In: Journal of Climate, ISSN 0894-8755, E-ISSN 1520-0442, Vol. 31, no 15, p. 6097-6111Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

It is of fundamental importance to evaluate the ability of climate models to capture the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and, in the context of a rapidly increasing greenhouse forcing, the robustness of the changes simulated in these patterns over time. Here we approach this problem from an innovative point of view based on dynamical systems theory. We characterize the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic in the CMIP5 historical simulations (1851-2000) in terms of two instantaneous metrics: local dimension of the attractor and stability of phase-space trajectories. We then use these metrics to compare the models to the Twentieth Century Reanalysis version 2c (20CRv2c) over the same historical period. The comparison suggests that (i) most models capture to some degree the median attractor properties, and models with finer grids generally perform better; (ii) in most models the extremes in the dynamical systems metrics match large-scale patterns similar to those found in the reanalysis; (iii) changes in the attractor properties observed for the ensemble-mean 20CRv2c are artifacts resulting from inhomogeneities in the standard deviation of the ensemble over time; and (iv) the long-term trends in local dimension observed among the 56 members of the 20CR ensemble have the same sign as those observed in the CMIP5 multimodel mean, although the multimodel trend is much weaker.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 31, no 15, p. 6097-6111
Keywords [en]
Atmospheric circulation, Nonlinear dynamics, Statistical techniques, Climate models, Reanalysis data
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-158326DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0176.1ISI: 000437092900006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-158326DiVA, id: diva2:1236773
Available from: 2018-08-06 Created: 2018-08-06 Last updated: 2018-08-06Bibliographically approved

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Messori, Gabriele
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CiteExportLink to record
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Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
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  • Other style
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Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
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Output format
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  • asciidoc
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