Change search
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf
Adaptive water infrastructure planning for nonstationary hydrology
Stockholm University, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography. Imperial College London, U.K..ORCID iD: 0000-0003-0378-3170
Number of Authors: 42018 (English)In: Advances in Water Resources, ISSN 0309-1708, E-ISSN 1872-9657, Vol. 118, p. 83-94Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

The uncertainty of a changing climate raises challenges for water infrastructure planning and design. Not accounting for nonstationarity may result in under-designed structures that fail too frequently, or over-designed structures that are economically inefficient. This concern is magnified by uncertainty in the long-term frequency and magnitude of future extreme events. Planning strategies that allow adaptations over a structure's life could improve both reliability and economic efficiency. This study develops a method to inform adaptive water infrastructure planning with uncertain hydrologic and other forms of nonstationarity, applied to levee system planning. A stochastic dynamic programming model including a Markov process is developed for infrastructure planning with uncertain nonstationarity in flood frequency. Bayes' theorem is used to update peak flow probabilities conditioned on observed past peak flows and to update expected residual flood damages over time. A levee system planning problem with a numerical example from California illustrates the approach to derive optimal levee heights over time, and economic values of adapting to uncertain nonstationary flood risk. The projected range of probabilistic hydrology scenarios affects the optimal results, particularly in later planning stages as hydrology scenarios diverge with time. Adaptive planning strategies allowing more levee upgrades over time slightly lowers the overall cost and provides better flood protection than one-time construction under nonstationary hydrology for any climate in the example. Compared to a known future nonstationary hydrology, incorporating uncertain nonstationary climate results in higher levees being planned for observed severe hydrology scenarios in later stages. The overall present value cost with uncertain nonstationary climate depends on rates of change in peak flow distribution parameters in future hydrology scenarios.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 118, p. 83-94
Keywords [en]
Nonstationary hydrology, Uncertain nonstationarity, Water infrastructure planning, Stochastic dynamic programming, Risk-based analysis
National Category
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-159036DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.05.009ISI: 000438309900006OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-159036DiVA, id: diva2:1245058
Available from: 2018-09-04 Created: 2018-09-04 Last updated: 2020-01-30Bibliographically approved

Open Access in DiVA

No full text in DiVA

Other links

Publisher's full text

Search in DiVA

By author/editor
Herman, JonathanMadani, Kaveh
By organisation
Department of Physical Geography
In the same journal
Advances in Water Resources
Earth and Related Environmental Sciences

Search outside of DiVA

GoogleGoogle Scholar

doi
urn-nbn

Altmetric score

doi
urn-nbn
Total: 26 hits
CiteExportLink to record
Permanent link

Direct link
Cite
Citation style
  • apa
  • ieee
  • modern-language-association-8th-edition
  • vancouver
  • Other style
More styles
Language
  • de-DE
  • en-GB
  • en-US
  • fi-FI
  • nn-NO
  • nn-NB
  • sv-SE
  • Other locale
More languages
Output format
  • html
  • text
  • asciidoc
  • rtf