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When does regression discontinuity design work? Evidence from random election outcomes
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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Number of Authors: 52018 (English)In: Quantitative Economics, ISSN 1759-7323, E-ISSN 1759-7331, Vol. 9, no 2, p. 1019-1051Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We use elections data in which a large number of ties in vote counts between candidates are resolved via a lottery to study the personal incumbency advantage. We benchmark non-experimental regression discontinuity design (RDD) estimates against the estimate produced by this experiment that takes place exactly at the cutoff. The experimental estimate suggests that there is no personal incumbency advantage. In contrast, conventional local polynomial RDD estimates suggest a moderate and statistically significant effect. Bias-corrected RDD estimates that apply robust inference are, however, in line with the experimental estimate. Therefore, state-of-the-art implementation of RDD can meet the replication standard in the context of close elections.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 9, no 2, p. 1019-1051
Keywords [en]
Close elections, experiment, incumbency advantage, regression discontinuity design
National Category
Economics and Business
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-160271DOI: 10.3982/QE864ISI: 000441706700015OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-160271DiVA, id: diva2:1249386
Available from: 2018-09-19 Created: 2018-09-19 Last updated: 2018-09-19Bibliographically approved

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