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Different heuristics and same bias: A spectral analysis of biased judgments and individual decision rules
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology, Cognitive psychology. Decision Research, USA.
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Psychology, Cognitive psychology.
Number of Authors: 32018 (English)In: Judgment and decision making, ISSN 1930-2975, E-ISSN 1930-2975, Vol. 13, no 5, p. 401-412Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

We used correlation and spectral analyses to investigate the cognitive structures and processes producing biased judgments. We used 5 different sets of driving problems to exemplify problems that trigger biases, specifically: (1) underestimation of the impact of occasional slow speeds on mean speed judgments, (2) overestimation of braking capacity after a speed increase, (3) the time saving bias (overestimation of the time saved by increasing a high speed further, and underestimation of time saved when increasing a low speed), (4) underestimation of increase of fatal accident risk when speed is increased, and (5) underestimation of the increase of stopping distance when speed is increased. The results verified the predicted biases. A correlation analysis found no strong links between biases; only accident risk and stopping distance biases were correlated significantly. Spectral analysis of judgments was used to identify different decision rules. Most participants were consistent in their use of a single rule within a problem set with the same bias. The participants used difference, average, weighed average and ratio rules, all producing biased judgments. Among the rules, difference rules were used most frequently across the different biases. We found no personal consistency in the rules used across problem sets. The complexity of rules varied across problem sets for most participants.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2018. Vol. 13, no 5, p. 401-412
Keywords [en]
spectral analysis, driving, heuristics, biases, time, speed
National Category
Psychology
Research subject
Psychology
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-161107ISI: 000445918400001OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-161107DiVA, id: diva2:1259663
Available from: 2018-10-30 Created: 2018-10-30 Last updated: 2019-01-21Bibliographically approved

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