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The importance of the financial system for the current account in Sweden: A sectoral approach
Stockholm University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Statistics. Ministry of Finance, Sweden.ORCID iD: 0000-0001-5957-7187
2019 (English)In: International Economics, ISSN 2110-7017, Vol. 158, p. 91-103Article in journal (Refereed) Published
Abstract [en]

This paper takes a sectoral approach to investigate the importance of financial variables for current account dynamics in Sweden. We use a Bayesian VAR model with priors on the steady states to analyse the determinants of net lending in different sectors and by extension the current account. The results suggest that: (i) the sectoral approach provides added value in analysing and understanding the drivers of the current account; (ii) demographic and financial shocks each account for 10–40 per cent of the forecast error variance of net lending in different sectors; (iii) negative development in the financial variables has a negative impact on the current account; and (iv) the importance and impact magnitudes of financial shocks depend on how economic policies are assumed to counteract these shocks.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
2019. Vol. 158, p. 91-103
Keywords [en]
Current account, Net lending, Financial variables, Bayesian VAR
National Category
Economics
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:su:diva-169520DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2019.03.003OAI: oai:DiVA.org:su-169520DiVA, id: diva2:1321946
Available from: 2019-06-10 Created: 2019-06-10 Last updated: 2019-06-10Bibliographically approved

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